POPULATION

GROWTH AND
DEVELOPMENT
■ The total number of persons inhabiting a country, city, or any
district or area
■ Population growth is the increase in the number of individuals
■ All populations change in size with time
        - if births exceed deaths, the population grows
        - if deaths exceed births, the population shrinks
        - only when births equal deaths does the population stay the same
■ Other Population Growth Factors- Populations can also change size if
organisms move in (immigration) or leave (emigration)
■ population growth as:
Change in Population Size = (Births + Immigration) - (Deaths + Emigration)
■ Expressing Population Changes as a Percentage
■ Population Growth and Income Growth
■ On a simplistic level, the relationship between growth in
population and growth in per capita income is clear
■ After all, per capita income equals total income divided by
population.
■ The growth rate of per capita income roughly equals the
difference between the growth rate of income and the
growth rate of population
■ Kenya’s annual growth rate in real GDP from 1975 to 2005,
for example, was 3.3%
■ Its population growth rate during that period was 3.2%,
leaving it a growth rate of per capita GDP of just 0.1%
 Contd...
■ A slower rate of population growth, together with the
same rate of GDP increase, would have left Kenya with
more impressive gains in per capita income
■ The implication is that-
■ if the developing countries want to increase their rate of
growth of per capita GDP relative to the developed
nations, they must limit their population growth
 Development and people
development and people are interrelated
■ People are the ultimate and the only beneficiaries
■ Development is directed towards meeting the needs
of the people
■ Development also contributes to-
■ capacity building of individuals as well as group of
individuals –family, society, etc.
■ Demographic dividend
 Contd...
■ Development needs of the people varies
■ They vary by basic characteristics of population
– Size, Age, Sex
■ The population stock determines the development needs
■ Development modifies the population stock through
changes in mortality, fertility and other determinants
 Demographic Dividend
■ Demographic dividend, as defined by the United
Nations Population Fund means,
■ "the economic growth potential that can result
from shifts in a population’s age structure,
mainly when the share of the working-age
population is larger than the non-working-age
share of the population".
■ major relationships identified between population growth and development.
■ They are:
■ 1) slower population growth, increased growth rate of per capita income, and
increase in per capita availability of exhaustible resources
■ 2) slower population growth, increased growth rate of per capita income and
increase of per capita availability of renewable resources
■ 3) alleviation of pollution and degradation of the natural environment and
slower population growth;
■ 4) slower population growth, more capital per worker and increase of worker
output and consumption
■ 5) lower population densities, per capita income and stimulus to technological
innovation
■ 6) slower population growth and the degree of inequality in income distribution
■ 7) slower population growth, the absorption of workers into the modern
economic sector and problems of urban growth
■ Demography-
■ is the study of human populations –
■ their size, composition and distribution across space
– and
■ the process through which populations change
■ Births, deaths and migration are the 'big three'
of demography
■ jointly producing population stability or change
■ Demographic transition:
■ When population starts with low growth rates due to high
birth rates and high death rates,
■ moves through rapid growth stage with high birth rates and
low death rates
■ later becomes stable with low-growth rate where both birth
and deaths are low.
The 3 stages of population growth
■ Stage 1: low growth due to high death rates and high birth rates
■ Stage 2. high growth rates driven by high birth rates and low
death rates
■ Stage 3. Stable or falling growth rate due to low birth rates and
low death rates
Causes of population growth
■ Thomas Malthus was Population “Pessimist”
■ Malthus argued populations grows because of “passion
between the sexes” that leads to rapid population growth.
He argued population grows geometrically and food
production grows arithmetically at best, leading to
famines and starvation
■ It can only prevented by natural “positive checks” such as
epidemics, famines, plague, natural disasters, and wars.
■ Malthus did not live long enough to see European
population growth decline
■ Why did Birth Rates Decline in spite of Malthus
pessimism?
■ It can only prevented by natural “positive checks” such
as epidemics, famines, plague, natural disasters, and
wars.
■ Malthus did not live long enough to see European
population growth decline
■ Why did Birth Rates Decline in spite of Malthus
pessimism?
 Malthus on population growth
■ Subsistence severely limits population-level
■ When means of subsistence increase, population
increases
■ Population-pressures stimulate increase in productivity
■ Increase in productivity stimulates further population-
growth
■ Since productivity can not keep up with the potential of
population growth for long, population requires strong
checks to keep it in line with carrying-capacity
 Contd...
■ Two kinds of checks that limit the growth of population
– Preventive checks. These checks lead to a reduction in
the birth rate – moral restraints, birth control and vice
– Positive checks. These checks lead to an increase in the
death rate – war, plague, famine
■ Abolition of poor laws which gave no incentive to birth
control
 Contd...
■ The problem of development-
■ lies in explaining why the actual gross national product
(actual riches) should differ from the potential gross
national product (power of producing riches)
■ Points out the way in which the potentialities of economic
development in a country should be realised
■ This can be done by larger production and fairer distribution
 Contd...
■ the process of economic development is not automatic
■ conscious, deliberate efforts are needed to bring development
■ mere increase in population cannot by itself lead to economic
development unless there is increase in effective demand. (This is
anticipation of the Keynesian doctrine)
■ He says – “A man whose only possession is his labour has, or has not,
an effective demand for produce according as he is, or is not, in
demand by those who have the disposal of the produce.”
■ He rejects Say’s Law which says “supply creates its own demand” and
that savings are automatically invested and constitutes a demand for
capital goods.
 Population and National Income- PCI
■ metric that measures a country's economic output per person and
is calculated by dividing the GDP of a country by its population
■ Global measure for gauging the prosperity of nations and is used
by economists, along with GDP, to analyze the prosperity of a
country based on its economic growth
■ Small, rich countries and more developed industrial countries
tend to have the highest PCI
■ important to understand how each factor contributes to the
overall output and how each factor is affecting per capita GDP
growth
 Contd...
■ If a country’s per capita GDP is growing with a stable population level it can
potentially be the result of technological progress that are producing more with the
same population level
■ Some countries may have high per capita GDP but a small population which
usually means they have built up a self-sufficient economy based on an abundance
of special resources
■ Nation may have consistent economic growth but if its population is growing faster
than its GDP, per capita GDP growth will be negative
■ This is not a problem for most established economiesas even a tepid pace of
economic growth can still outpace their population growth rates
■ countries with low levels of per capita GDP to begin with – including many nations
in Africa – can have rapidly increasing populations with little GDP growth
resulting in a steady erosion of living standards
Population Growth & Economic Development
■ population an obstacle or helpful to development?
■ Population and Productivity: Rapid population growth may
retard labor productivity in the short run
■ There is no simple correlation between economic and
population growth
■ Simon Kuznets showed for 40 LDCs between 1950-64
■ There is no correlation between population growth & per
capital income
■ Population and Market Failures
 Population and Accumulation
■ Demographers A. Coale and E.Hoover (1958) are population
pessimists arguing population growth retards economic
development by reducing income per capita in three ways;
■ Capital per worker for growing number of workers or capital
widening decreases & permit more investment to be used
increase per capital per worker or capital deepening.
■ Lower fertility investment will be diverted from education and
health to physical capital investment
■ Higher population growth will increase dependency ratio
Dependency Ratio
■ Dependency Ratio: Ratio of non-working population
(0-14 & 65 and over) divided by total working
population.

■ Dependency Ratio for developing Country comes

from the youth while that of Industrial Countries is
from over 65 or elderly or retired population.
 Population and Market failure
■ Another view on population is by population revisionists
■ Revisionists assume market failures where costs and benefits
of reproductive behavior are not fully borne by them
■ There is a negative externality from population growth
resulting resource depletion, congestion, natural resource
and environmental decay
■ Revisionists assume the problem is lack of well defined
property rights.
■ They point to “The tragedy of commons” scenario in history
that common use can destroy resources from over use such as
pasture, fishery since there is a free-rider problem where
individual user does not impact his use on others.
 Population Policy
■ Reducing birth rates is one solution. But How?
■ Use policy interventions to reduce birth rates.
■ The biggest reducer of population is economic
development (UN World Population in Bucharest in
1974).
■ “Take care of the people, population will reduce itself”.
So, economic development is the “best contraceptive”
 Contd...
■ There are also arguments for direct control
■ The most extreme is the Chinese one child policy campaign in
1979
■ Family Planning Programs: Use of persuasion and education to
influence couples to have less children,
■ The 9994 International Conference on Population &
Development replaced family planning with broader program of
reproductive health.
■ Authoritarian policy of China’s one child policy is difficult to
implement in Africa and other societies