11th 12th Lectures FP of US, Russia, China, and India (2 Classes)

Foreign Policy of Selected Powers
Foreign Policy of US, China,

Russia, and India.
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, PhD (IR) NDU, NOA Islamabad.
Think critically….!
 Does new US defence strategy aim to counter China?
 Do you think, we are living in a New Cold War?
 If yes, who are the allies?
 Which age do we live in, unipolar, bipolar, or multipolar?
 How do you see the future of global politics – rivalry, cooperation,

or confrontation?
Comparative Analysis - Economic Terms
 US 19.73 Trillion (2018)

 China 13.10 Trillion (2018)
 Japan 5.45 Trillion
 Germany 4.15 Trillion
 France 2.58 Trillion
 UK 2.88 Trillion
 Russia 1.6 Trillion (2018)
 EU 18.4 Trillion (2018)
Per Capita Income of the major powers
According to IMF;
 USA 61,690 US$ (2017)
 Russia 10,630 US$ (2017)
 China 8,200 US$ (2017-18)
Defence Spending Bil. US$
 USA 716 in (2018)
 China 220-240 (2018)
 Russia 67 (2017)
Soft power
American Dream
 Holly Wood, IT, Google, Facebook etc.
 Media – CNN, FOX, etc.
 Democracy, Secular society, Human Rights,
 Liberty, Free Speech, etc.
China
 Confucianism, BRI – economic dividends, Chinese Model
Russia
 After communism, Russia seriously lacks soft power
Transition: from unipolar to multipolar ..?
 At large, world is peaceful.
 No hegemonic competition because US cannot be balanced.
 China is rising in Asia, India in SA, Russia in CA.
 India has become the China of Cold War???
 EU, ASEAN, BRICS, and SCO.

US F.P Objectives
1. Safeguard territorial Integrity
2. Protection of US citizens from within and outside
3. Maintain links with other countries, to promote cooperation

& global leadership.
US FP determinants
1. Military
2. Economy
3. Technology
4. Geography
5. Ideology & culture
6. Public Opinion
Defining US national Interests 4Ps
 Power: Military, Economy, and Diplomacy.
 Peace: maintain peace for US-led world order, through

institutions, like UNO, IMF, WB, and IAEA.
 Prosperity: of Americans through Global Capitalism.
 Principles: Democracy, human rights, etc.

US Foreign Policy Structure and process
1 President
 Com-in-Chief, most powerful actor, authority for declaring wars,
central to FP making.
2 National Security Council

 Council advice and assist president on FP and security issues with
advisors and cabinet members.
US Foreign Policy Structure and process
3 Congress.
 Legislation, and determine foreign policy. LoN, Kyoto

protocol.
 Keep check & balance on executive authority.
 Impose sanctions and grants aid to other states.

FP Making Process in US
4 Intelligence Community: Intelligentsia has an important role

in FP making and implementation.
5 Interest Groups: Lobbyists, MNCs, MIC, NGOs, etc.
6 Media: CNN, CNBC, ABC, Fox News, Time, Newsweek,

Washington Post, New York Times, and Wall Street.
Instruments for the application of FP
 Military Power
 Covert Activities
 Foreign Aid
 Sanctions
 Alliances
Under Obama, US FP for Muslim World
Engaging Muslim World

 9/11, Under Bush, US relations with Muslim world strained
especially after 2003.
 Obama came with the notion of change and engaging Muslim

World – Cairo Speech.
 Pulled out forces from Iraq in 2011.
 Partially pulled troops from Afghanistan.

Under Obama, US Middle East FP
Objectives:-
 Ensure Access to Energy,
 Prevention of WMD’s proliferation,
 Dismantling Terrorist Networks;
Policy:-
1. Disengagement – Syria, Iraq
2. Democracy
3. Diplomacy – Cairo Speech
Drivers of the US Middle Eastern engagement
 Oil,
 Israel, Egypt and KSA, - US as stabilizer.
 Iranian Nuclear Ambitions,
 Al-Qaeda and ISIS,
 Russo-Iranian intervention into Syria and Iraq.

Dynamics of Donald Trump’s FP
 Economic Nationalism – America First
 Relations Taiwan and Japan – China specific.
 Trade war with currency manipulator China.
 Forcing Japan and NATO to pay against Russia and China.
 Withdrew from TPP, JCPOA, climate deal, UN human rights
Council..
 Boosted relations with Poland – against Russia.
 Gave arms to Ukraine – against Russia.
US FP in South China Sea & Asia Pacific Region
“We’re going to send China a clear signal that, first, stop the
island-building, second, your access to those islands will not be
allowed.”
Rex Tillerson, US secretary of State
 China: A Global Challenger.

 Re-balance the Chinese rise.
 Ensure stability in South China Sea.
 Strengthening Alliances: From Europe to Asia.
Trump’s Middle Eastern policy
 Keeping oil rich region under US control.

 Egypt, KSA, and Israel relations reinvigorated.
 Contain Iranian influence and toppling Bashar.
 Support Kurds against ISIS (causes friction in Ankara)
 Pulled out of JCPOA.
 Recognized Jerusalem as capital of Israel.
 Favors a united Sunni Arab alliance against Iran.
 Therefore, supports Islamic Military Alliance.
US South Asia & Afghanistan policy
 A condition based strategy than time bound.
 Troops surge, more military than political strategy.
 Making field officers autonomous.
 Press Pakistan to “do more” - Afghanistan.
 Having India as preferred ally in Afghanistan.
 Fighting Terrorism and promoting Peace.
 Strengthen counter-insurgency efforts of the respective
countries
 Killing Taliban for decisive win.
Trump’s policy for Korean Peninsula
Denuclearize NK and make it ineffective, or distant it from China and
coopt.
Options for US;

1- Acceptance,
2- Military intervention,
3- Regime Change,
4- Diplomacy. ( can help US achieve an edge over China)
US-Saudi relations under Trump
 Saudia – country Trump chose for his first visit.
 US endorsed Islamic Counter Terrorism Alliance.
 USA supported Saudi’s economic and social reformation —but not
political?
 Share common policy against Iran.
 US pulled from JCPOA – Saudia supported move.
 Against ISIS – Saudia supported and established GCCEI.
 Saudia supported US Palestinian peace process.
 Oil and Weapons based bilateralism.
US-EU relationship under Trump
 Trump questioned NATO in his campaign – “unfair trade”.

 Differences over steel Tarifs, JCPOA, sanctions on Iran and
Russia.
 Europe reluctant to go with US against Russia.
 “This is the first time they are parting company over ends.”
Charles Kupchan
 “Trump is threatening Europe’s foreign-policy sovereignty”,
Former Swedish PM
 US-EU have 670 US$ Billion mutual trade.
Khashoggi’s Killing and US-KSA Relations
 US-Saudi relations face four questions;
 First, He wrote for a US paper WP – US is a place where
people make news, write about news, and obsess about news.
 Second, Trump’s close relationship with MBS – its an
opportunity for opponents of Trump administration.
 Third, it raises questions about Riyadh’s influence among US
elite.
 Finally, it questioned the Trump administrations poor choice –
MBS, as the mainstay of US middle east policy.
Foreign Policy Of China
Five principles of Chines FP
1. Mutual Respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity,
2. Mutual non-aggression,
3. Non-interference, into the domestic affairs of the nations,
4. Equality and mutual benefits,
5. Peaceful coexistence.
Capability Factors.
 Economy: 13.10 Trillion in (2018)
 Military power: 2018 220-240 Billion US$
 Natural resources: Iron, Coal, but lacks Oil and Gas. 64% of
its needs imported, 80% 2035.
 Soft Power: Confucianism, BRI – economic dividends,

Chinese Model gaining attraction from other countries.
‘Peaceful Rise’ & ‘Harmonious World’ concepts
 Chinese rise will not be violent, disrupting, disturbing, and aggressive

for neighbours.
 Chines future will be harmless.
 China wants an interconnected and harmonious world.
 It can also co-exist with other states.
Chinese Foreign Policy thinking in 21st century
 Yes to Peace, No to Conflict
 Yes to Cooperation, No to Competition
 Yes to Justice, No to Hegemony
 Yes to Win-Sum, No to Zero-Sum
Considerations in Chinese FP on Global Scale.
 Friendly relations with neighbours.
 Restructuring of economy, from labour intensive industry to

services sector.
 Chinese FP conduct has changed now, it is proactive, assertive,

and bold now.
Considerations in Chinese FP on Global Scale.
 China wants – restructuring of Int. Institutions.
 Because it believes that UNO, MF, and WB are managed by

US and allies,
 Therefore, China brought AIIB in 2015.
 Wants to extend its relations to Europe and Asia under “West

March” thinking.
March West strategy …
Mao Zedong’s
“Where the enemy advances, we retreat. Where the enemy
retreats, we pursue.“
 China now making inroads into;

 Europe ..(Brexit).
 Africa.
 Afghanistan.
Chinese Global Ambitions.
 Promotion of “Chinese model”.
 Promotion of “Chinese Dream” vis-à-vis “American Dream”.
Chinese Belt Road Initiative
 Is the result of Openness, Inclusiveness, Transparency.
 It is not geostrategic tool against any country
 Will bring prosperity and growth for all participants.
 All countries will be winners and no one will be loser.
Belt Road Initiative
 CPEC will create one million jobs in Pakistan .

 Gwadar to handle 300/400 million tons annually.
 CPEC will save million barrel/day and 9000 kilometer of
distance.
 4 to 8 trillion will be spent on OBOR (at peak)
 It will be 55% of World GDP with 900 projects.
 By 2050 Chinese economy - 58 Trillion.
Chinese next 5 years contribution
 Import good of 8 trillions US$.
 Attract 600 billion US$ FDI in China.
 Will create 700 million Chinese visits outside world.
 CPEC will be first of BRI to be completed.
China India Relations
 Competition and cooperation in political military spheres. (84

Billion US$ Trade 2017)
 Largely they have cooperated at global level - BRICs, SCO,
etc.
 China grades India very high in their FP thinking.
 Both support reforms in int. economic order.
 Both are members on climate change forums and frameworks
like UNFCCC etc.
 Also support counter terrorism efforts as a common interest.
(but all these are at global level)
China India – Rivals at Regional levels.
A Widening Yet Managed Rivalry
 India rejects Chinese dominated Asian order.
 India questions CPEC – sovereignty.
 India’s regional power credentials are under threat by China.
 China does not support India for UNSC seat.
 China has concerns about US-India nexus in Indian Ocean.
China relations with Pak
 Time tested all weather friend ship.
 Economic interest convergence, CPEC 62 billion.
 China supports Pakistan at UNSC.
 Relationship is expanding from strategic to economy and social

fronts.
 Nuclear energy cooperation.

China Sri Lanka relations
 China is the largest financier of Sri Lanka.
 Under Rajapakse – relations were good but, not under Sirisena

since 2015 because of US and India.
 China invested in seaports, roads infrastructure, militarily

helped crush LTTE rebellion.
 China bought Hambantota port in 2017 for 1.3 Bil $.

China with Afghanistan
 China committed to stabilize Afghanistan.
 With ISIS in Afghanistan, Afghanistan poses a threat to

China’s BRI, Xing Xiang, and Russia.
 It support Afghan-led-Afghan-owned peace process.
 To keep India out there is also a Quadrilateral mechanism

China – Pakistan – Afghanistan - US.
China’s Relations with Russia
 Both coming closer – shared anxieties.
 Xi – first trip as president to Russia.
 Signed 400 US$ energy deal in 2014 for 30 years.
 Russia – part of BRI, and founders of BRICs & SCO.
Priorities in XI’s Foreign Policy
 China has become decisive role in UNSC.

 Promoting Chinese dream as alternative to American dream
 Xi has concentrated powers into presidency.
 Supports restructuring of international institutions.
 Established AIIB – a signal to US led order.
 Conceived BRI – infrastructural diplomacy.
 Advocates Asian Security for Asian community.
Russian Foreign Policy
Overview of Russian FP
 Mixture of socialism and capitalism.
 Primarily based on Territorial integrity.
 Exercises strong influence in CA, Eastern Europe, ME, and

Afghanistan.
 Opposes NATO’s eastward expansion.
Over view of Russian FP
 Annexed Crimea.
 Opposes Ukraine and Georgian entry into EU/NATO.
 Involved in multilateral org. APEC, SCO, BRICS, G8, IMF,

IAEA, and NSG.
Russian Resurgence since 2003
 Putin as strong Leader. Ailing Yeltsin Vs. strong Putin

 Started in 2003, when energy prices went up.
 2nd Largest coal reserves
 Petro-economy
 Russia building pipelines for energy exports
 Priority is in near neighbour - CA, Middle East, Eastern
Europe, Afghanistan, and China.
Russia’s three pronged global strategy
 1- Intimidation to US/EU in Eastern Europe, Georgia, Ukraine,

and Middle East.
 2- Weakening of Western-led Order.
 3- Creating markets for arms sale.
Russian achievements under Putin
 Preservation of territorial integrity.

 Russia regained its status as great power.
 Restoration of Russians' self-confidence
 Resistance to the regime change efforts by US in its
neighborhood.
 Restoration of lost positions in traditional zones of influence –
ME, Afghanistan, Georgia, Ukraine.
Russia in Middle East
Russia achieved Five Objective in Syria
 1 - Filled vacuum created by USA inaction.

 2 - Ended own isolation at global level.
 3 - Weakened EU & Arab govts, strengthened Iran.
 4 - He is in position of bargain in Ukraine.
 5 - Denied easy victory to US plans of toppling Bashar.
Russia cooperating with KSA, Iran, & Turkey.
 In Sep 2017, Russia, turkey, and Iran agreed to establish

control zones in Syria.
 Saudia is also considering other options like Russia.
 Iran, Turkey, and KSA have interests in Syria – only Russia

can facilitate that.
Russia cooperating with KSA, Iran, & Turkey.
 Turkey gives way to Russia to Europe and Mediterranean sea.
 Russia wants to keep Islamists weak by using KSA and Iran.

 Turkey wants to check Iranian influence in Syria and intends
to keep the Syrian Kurds weak in the north.
 Iran wants to contain Sunni threat of Sunni groups in Syria
and consolidate its power in Syria and Iraq.
 KSA wants to cooperate with Russia to stabilize oil prices and
check Iranian influence.
 Russia wants to accumulate power in middle east to bargain

with US in Ukraine.
This all makes Russia the mainstay in Middle Eastern politics.
Challenges Russia faces
 Economic modernization, Diversification from Hydrocarbon

and Arms to other sectors.
 NATO’s eastward expansion.
 Declining population growth.
 Threat of Islamization in CA.
 Corruption of government officials.
 Lack of economic resources for rebuilding infrastructure.
Indian Foreign Policy
Indian Foreign Policy under Modi Govt.
Indian Strategic Priorities;

1. Neighbourhood First policy - ‘Act East’.
2. Achieve international partnerships to promote India’s
economic growth.
3. Ensuring multipolar balance of power in the region, ‘Act
East’.
4. Dissuading Pakistan from supporting terrorism.
5. Projecting Indian representation & leadership on global
issues.
Indian Foreign Policy Objectives;
1- Neighbourhood First: Improving connectivity.
• Friendly relations with neighbours and IOR countries.
• Support neighbours with resources and training.
• Greater connectivity and integration to improve the trade, energy trade,

investments.
• Promote a model of India-led regionalism with which its neighbours are

comfortable.
2- Bringing development through diplomacy.
• International partnerships to advance India’s domestic
development.
• Improving technological access, gaining market access, and
securing natural resources – CA & ME
• US-India Nuclear deal.
• Attracted Japanese investment in high-speed rail.
• Chinese investments in infrastructure building.
3- Acting East as China Rises.
• Modi replaced ‘Look East’ policy with ‘Act East,’ to show
greater intent.
• Because of China’s rise and the upsetting of Asian balance of
power.
• Risk of Chinese assertiveness on the disputed border,
• Possibility of Chinese primacy in the Indo-Pacific region.
4- Pakistan: Engagement and isolation.
• Pakistan’s relative importance for India has waned.
• Trade b/w Indo-Pak is almost non-existent.
• India tried to dissuade China from CPEC.
• India trying to isolate Pakistan internationally.

5- India as a leading power: Raising ambitions.
• Indian economy and clout is rising.
• India wishes to be part of all global forums – UNSC, G20,

BRICS.
• USA is helping India become a great power.
Question to Attempt
 US acceptance of Jerusalem as official capital of Israel is a lost

opportunity for the peace in Middle East, how true is this
statement?
 What should be the Foreign Policy priorities of US in post Brexit
Europe?
 The contours of the world politics in 21st century will be shaped

by US-China relations, discuss.
 Do you see Sino-Russian partnership in the future given the

developments in Pacific and ME regions?

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Foreign Policy of Selected Powers

Foreign Policy of US, China,

 Do you think, we are living in a New Cold War?

 If yes, who are the allies?

 Which age do we live in, unipolar, bipolar, or multipolar?

 How do you see the future of global politics – rivalry, cooperation,

 US 19.73 Trillion (2018)

 USA 61,690 US$ (2017)

 Russia 10,630 US$ (2017)

 China 8,200 US$ (2017-18)

 USA 716 in (2018)

 China 220-240 (2018)

 At large, world is peaceful.

 No hegemonic competition because US cannot be balanced.

 China is rising in Asia, India in SA, Russia in CA.

 India has become the China of Cold War???

 EU, ASEAN, BRICS, and SCO.

1. Safeguard territorial Integrity

2. Protection of US citizens from within and outside

3. Maintain links with other countries, to promote cooperation

5. Ideology & culture

 Power: Military, Economy, and Diplomacy.

 Peace: maintain peace for US-led world order, through

 Prosperity: of Americans through Global Capitalism.

 Principles: Democracy, human rights, etc.

2 National Security Council

 Legislation, and determine foreign policy. LoN, Kyoto

 Keep check & balance on executive authority.

 Impose sanctions and grants aid to other states.

4 Intelligence Community: Intelligentsia has an important role

5 Interest Groups: Lobbyists, MNCs, MIC, NGOs, etc.

6 Media: CNN, CNBC, ABC, Fox News, Time, Newsweek,

Engaging Muslim World

 Obama came with the notion of change and engaging Muslim

 Pulled out forces from Iraq in 2011.

 Partially pulled troops from Afghanistan.

 Israel, Egypt and KSA, - US as stabilizer.

 Iranian Nuclear Ambitions,

 Al-Qaeda and ISIS,

 Russo-Iranian intervention into Syria and Iraq.

 China: A Global Challenger.

 Keeping oil rich region under US control.

Options for US;

 Trump questioned NATO in his campaign – “unfair trade”.

3. Non-interference, into the domestic affairs of the nations,

4. Equality and mutual benefits,

 Economy: 13.10 Trillion in (2018)

 Military power: 2018 220-240 Billion US$

 Soft Power: Confucianism, BRI – economic dividends,

 Chinese rise will not be violent, disrupting, disturbing, and aggressive

 Chines future will be harmless.

 China wants an interconnected and harmonious world.

 It can also co-exist with other states.

 Yes to Peace, No to Conflict

 Yes to Cooperation, No to Competition

 Yes to Justice, No to Hegemony

 Yes to Win-Sum, No to Zero-Sum

 Friendly relations with neighbours.

 Restructuring of economy, from labour intensive industry to

 Chinese FP conduct has changed now, it is proactive, assertive,

 Because it believes that UNO, MF, and WB are managed by

 Therefore, China brought AIIB in 2015.

 Wants to extend its relations to Europe and Asia under “West