ECV5602

Statistical Method For Transportation

ASSIGNMENT

Name ： BI YONGHCAO
Matric No.: GS49547

Lecturer : Assoc. Prof. Dr. Law Teik Hua

Objectives:

 To determine annual vehicle kilometer travel (VKT) amon

g Malaysia motor vehicle users.
 To compare annual VKT between different groups of motor
vehicle users.
 To investigate the impact of demographic factors on ann
ual VKT.
Questionnaire

 Total 40 questionn
aires were sent t
o my friends and t
heir friends
 32 effect question
naires are selecte
d to do this study
 Household 1st 2ed VKT

Data Collection
No. Gender Age Education Income Annual VKT
Size Reading Reading 14days
1 M 51 Degree 8xxx 5 602564 603761 1197 31208
2 M 34 Degree 3xxx 4 114456 114812 356 9281
3 F 26 Degree 2xxx 3 120559 120995 436 11367
4 M 36 Degree 3xxx 5 105143 105546 403 10507
5 M 25 Degree 2xxx 3 142577 143144 567 14783
6 F 32 Degree 3xxx 3 88796 89102 306 7978
7 F 37 Master 4xxx 2 209870 210232 362 9438
8 M 45 Degree 4xxx 4 389033 389658 625 16295
9 F 26 Degree 2xxx 5 96436 97216 780 20336
10 F 28 Diploma 2xxx 5 147680 148159 479 12488
11 F 26 Diploma 2xxx 3 58900 59082 182 4745
12 M 32 Phd 6xxx 5 438290 438884 594 15486
13 M 36 Diploma 3xxx 6 158434 158675 241 6283
14 F 39 Degree 3xxx 5 124789 125139 350 9125
15 M 40 Degree 4xxx 2 554878 555052 174 4536
16 F 33 Diploma 3xxx 3 35768 36087 319 8317
17 M 29 Degree 2xxx 4 43280 43515 235 6127
18 M 25 Diploma 1xxx 4 7505 7642 137 3572
19 F 31 Diploma 1xxx 3 33468 33677 209 5449
20 M 27 Degree 2xxx 5 8446 8800 354 9229
21 F 31 Diploma 1xxx 3 53790 53947 157 4093
22 F 25 Degree 3xxx 3 42468 42814 346 9021
23 M 39 Master 4xxx 2 36572 36992 420 10950
24 M 25 Degree 3xxx 4 40683 41278 595 15513
25 F 25 Degree 2xxx 5 12468 12784 316 8239
26 F 28 Diploma 2xxx 5 37839 38127 288 7509
27 M 35 Diploma 2xxx 3 13246 13396 150 3911
28 M 45 Degree 3xxx 5 56214 56580 366 9542
29 M 30 Diploma 2xxx 6 23567 23834 267 6961
30 F 26 Diploma 3xxx 5 15478 15846 368 9594
31 M 27 Degree 3xxx 2 73733 74359 626 16321
32 F 33 Diploma 1xxx 3 456782 456884 102 2659
Data Collection
Data Collection
Data Analysis

 Distribution of VKT
 Hypothesis tests
 Multiple linear regression
 Distribution of VKT
Frequency distribution bar chart for All Vehicles
Class Interval Mid Point Relative 16
Frequency

Frequency
15
(Km) (Km) Frequency
2500-7499 5000 10 0.31 14
7500-12499 10000 15 0.47
12500-17499 15000 5 0.16
12
17500-22499 20000 1 0.03 10
10
22500-27499 25000 0 0.00
27500-32499 30000 1 0.03 8
Total 　 32 1
6 5

4
All Vehicles
Mean 10027 2 1 1
Std. Deviation 5769.44 0
0
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Annual VKT
Distribution of VKT

Cars Motorcycles

44%
50% 50% 56%

Female Male Female Male

 Distribution of VKT

Frequency distribution bar chart for Car

Class Relative
Interval(KM) Mid Point Frequency Frequency
9
2500-7499 5000 3 0.19
8

Frequency
7500-12499 10000 8 0.50 8
12500-17499 15000 3 0.19
17500-22499 20000 1 0.06 7

22500-27499 25000 0 0.00

6
27500-32499 30000 1 0.06
Total 　 16 1.00 5

4
3 3
3

Car 2
Mean 12011 1 1
1
Std. Deviation 6696.3
0
0
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Annual VKT
 Distribution of VKT

Frequency distribution bar chart for Motorcycle

Class Relative 6
Mid Point Frequency
Interval(KM) Frequency

Frequency
2500-5499 4000 5 0.31 5 5
5
5500-8499 7000 4 0.25
4
8500-11499 10000 5 0.31 4
11500-14499 13000 0 0.00
14500-17499 16000 2 0.13 3

Total 　 16 1.00
2
2

Car 1
Mean 8043
Std. Deviation 3818.8 0
0
4000 7000 10000 13000 16000

Annual VKT
Distribution of VKT

Conclusion:
 From the histogram, the VKT data is skewed left (positiv
ely skewed), highest frequencies in the range of 2500-12
499 (78%).
 Between range 22500-27499, there are no vehicle fill in
since the samples size too small. When the sample size b
ecome large enough, certain percentage vehicles will fil
l in this range.
 The percentage of male and female driver for car is same
, and the percentage of male rider is slightly higher th
an female rider for motorcycle.
Hypothesis tests
The mean of the VKT for cars and VKT for motorcycles

 H0 : μ1 – μ2 = 0, H1: μ1 – μ2 ≠ 0
 μ1 =12011, σ1=6696.3
 μ2 =8043, σ2=3818.8
Where:
μ1 is the mean of VKT of car
μ2 is the mean of VKT of motorcycle
σ1 is the standard deviation of VKT of ca
r
σ2 is the standard deviation of VKT of mo
torcycle
Hypothesis tests
t  

=
= 2.06
Critical value :
= =2802527.106
= =911452.09
Hypothesis tests
  

Critical value :

=
=2.131

t=2.06<2.131

So, fail to reject H0

There is significant evidence to say that the mean of the
VKT for motorcars and motorcycles is similar at significa
nce level α=0.05
Hypothesis tests
The mean of the VKT for Male and Female

Gender Annual VKT Gender Annual VKT

M 31208 F 11367
M 9281 F 7978
Male
M 10507 F 9438 Mean 11206
Std. Deviation 6785.76
M 14783 F 20336
M 16295 F 12488
M 15486 F 4745
M 6283 F 9125 Female
Mean 8690
M 4536 F 8317 Std. Deviation 4180.78
M 6127 F 5449
M 3572 F 4093
M 9229 F 9021
M 10950 F 8239
M 15513 F 7509
M 3911 F 9594
M 9542 F 2659
M 6961 　 　
M 16321 　 　
Hypothesis tests
The mean of the VKT for Male and Female

 H0 : μ1 – μ2 = 0, H1: μ1 – μ2 ≠ 0
 μ1 =11206, σ1=6785.76
 μ2 =8690, σ2=4180.78
Where:
μ1 is the mean of VKT of Male driver/rider
μ2 is the mean of VKT of Female driver/rider
σ1 is the standard deviation of VKT of Male dri
ver/rider
σ2 is the standard deviation of VKT of Female d
river/rider

Level of significant α = 0.05

Hypothesis tests
t  

=
= 1.28
Critical value :
= =2708619.928
= =1165261.427
Hypothesis tests
  

Critical value :

=
=2.128

t=1.28<2.128

So, fail to reject H0

There is significant evidence to say that the mean of th
e VKT for Male and Female is similar at significance lev
el α=0.05
Hypothesis tests
Annual VKT Between Household Income

 H0 : There is no significant difference in the average o

f annual VKT between household size < 4 and household
income >= 4.
H0 : µ1 - µ2 = 0

 H1 : There is a significant difference in the average o

f annual VKT between household size < 4 and household i
ncome >= 4.
H1 : µ1 - µ2 ≠ 0
Hypothesis tests
Annual VKT Between Household Income

 level of significance = 0.05

 Degree of Freedom, df = 32 – 2 = 30
 Critical Region :
t < -t 0.025, 30 = -2.042
t > t 0.025, 30 = 2.042
Hypothesis tests
Annual VKT Between Household Income
Household Size Household Size
Annual VKT
(>=4) (<4)
4 9281
4 16295
4 6127
4 3572
4 15513
5 31208
5 10507
5 20336
5 12488
5 15486
5 9125
5 9229
5 8239
5 7509
5 9542
5 9594
6 6283
6 6961
Annual VKT
2 9438
2 4536
2 10950
2 16321
3 11367
3 14783
3 7978
3 4745
3 8317
3 5449
3 4093
3 9021
3 3911
3 2659
Hypothesis tests
Annual VKT Between Household Income

Excel Result:
　 Annual VKT Annual VKT

Mean 11516.3294 8111.93878

Variance 41922997.1 17532248.7

Observations 18 14

Pooled Variance 31353672.8

Hypothesized Mean Difference 0

df 30

t Stat 1.70616273

P(T<=t) one-tail 0.04915575

t Critical one-tail 1.69726089

P(T<=t) two-tail 0.0983115

t Critical two-tail 2.04227246 　

Hypothesis tests
Annual VKT Between Household Income

 t stat = 1.706 < t 0.025, 30 = 2.042

 So, fail reject hypothesis null, there is no significan

t difference in the average of annual VKT between house
hold size < 4 and >= 4.
 Household

Multiple linear regression

No. Gender Age Education Income (k) Annual VKT
Size
1 0 51 2 8 5 31208
2 0 34 2 3 4 9281
3 1 26 2 2 3 11367
4 0 36 2 3 5 10507
5 0 25 2 2 3 14783
6 1 32 2 3 3 7978
7 1 37 3 4 2 9438
8 0 45 2 4 4 16295
9 1 26 2 2 5 20336
10 1 28 1 2 5 12488
11 1 26 1 2 3 4745
Groups Weights 12 0 32 4 6 5 15486
Male 0 13 0 36 1 3 6 6283
14 1 39 2 3 5 9125
Female 1 15 0 40 2 4 2 4536
Diploma 1 16 1 33 1 3 3 8317
17 0 29 2 2 4 6127
Degree 2
18 0 25 1 1 4 3572
Master 3 19 1 31 1 1 3 5449
PhD 4 20 0 27 2 2 5 9229
21 1 31 1 1 3 4093
22 1 25 2 3 3 9021
23 0 39 3 4 2 10950
24 0 25 2 3 4 15513
25 1 25 2 2 5 8239
26 1 28 1 2 5 7509
27 0 35 1 2 3 3911
28 0 45 2 3 5 9542
29 0 30 1 2 6 6961
30 1 26 1 3 5 9594
31 0 27 2 3 2 16321
32 1 33 1 1 3 2659
Multiple linear regression

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.734000643

R Square 0.538756944

Adjusted R Square 0.450056357

Standard Error 4278.513818

Observations 32

ANOVA

　 df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 5 555932759.3 111186552 6.073882 0.000748557

Residual 26 475947692.7 18305680.5

Total 31 1031880452 　 　 　
Multiple linear regression

　 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 4431.6579 6115.9237 0.72461 0.475162325 -8139.8034 17003

Gender 69.895845 1677.9481 0.04166 0.967091537 -3379.1759 3519

Age -212.8546 156.66986 -1.35862 0.185938845 -534.89414 109.18

Education 120.5777 1461.5229 0.0825 0.934879876 -2883.6257 3124.8

Income 3347.8556 902.83626 3.70815 0.00099604 1492.0491 5203.7

Household Size 735.11821 673.443 1.09158 0.285029397 -649.1637 2119.4

Multiple linear regression

 Adjusted= 0.45
45% of variation in the Annual VKT can be explained by the age,
income level, education level, gender, and household size.

Determine the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis

H0 : Neither of the independent variables is related to the
dependent variable
H1 : At least one the independent variable is related to the
dependent variable
Multiple linear regression

Since p-value, 0.00075 is less than α=0.05, reject

H0

Thus, there is significant evidence that at least

one of the independent variables is related to the
independent variable at α=0.05

F =6.07388 > Significance F =0.00075, so the

result is reliable (statistically significant)
 Multiple linear regression

Regression Line:

Y = 4431.66 + 69.9X1 – 212.85X2 + 120.58X3 + 3347.86X4+735.12X5

Where:
Y= Annual VKT;
X1=Gender;
X2=Age;
X3= Education;
X4= Income;
X5=Household Size
Multiple linear regression
 When X1, X2, X3, X4 & X5 are zero, the estimated values
of Annual VKT is 4431.66.
 When X2, X3, X4 & X5 are held constant, the estimated va
lues of Annual VKT increase by 69.9 for every 1 unit in
crease in gender.
 When X1, X3, X4 & X5 are held constant, the estimated va
lues of Annual VKT increase by -212.85 for every 1 unit
increase in age.
 When X1, X2, X4 & X5 are held constant, the estimated va
lues of Annual VKT increase by 120.58 for every 1 unit
increase in education level.
Multiple linear regression

 When X1, X2, X3 & X5 are held constant, the estimated va

lues of Annual VKT increase by 3347.85 for every 1 unit
increase in income.
 When X1, X2, X3 & X4 are held constant, the estimated va
lues of Annual VKT increase by 735.12 for every 1 unit
increase in household size.
Thank you