PROBABILITY

Submitted to:
Dr. JAYASHREE.&
Dr.RUDRESH.
Dept of A.G.B
Veterinary college
shivamogga

Submitted by
N.Giriraj
M.V.S.K – 1904
Veterinary college
shivamogga
 HISTORY OF PROBABILITY
THEORY

•The theory of probability has its origin in the

games of chance related to gambling such as
tossing of a coin, throwing of a die, drawing cards
from a pack of cards etc.
•Ratio of frequency of an event (occurrence of an event,
favorable cases) to that of total number of events( total
number of events, total number of cases) is called
probability.

•The probability of an event is a value between 0 and 1,

inclusive.

•It can be expressed as a fraction, decimal, percent, or ratio.

Assuming n eggs are incubated, we say that m number of
chicks may hatch out; that is we are talking about the
predicting certain outcome. Here, hatching chicks is a
favorable outcome and total number of egg incubated is
total number of equally likely outcomes. That means each
egg incubated has an equal chance of hatching. Then
probability of hatching is ratio of m to n.
 Types Of Probability

1. Subjective
Based on personal opinion or a guess without
substantial support.

Examples:
• It looks slightly overcast. I think there’s a 40%
chance of rain.
2. Experimental (Empirical, Statistical)
Uses relative frequencies of past events to predict
future outcomes and likelihoods.

Example:

The India won t20 match last year. There is a 60%

chance that they will win their match today also.

3. Theoretical (Classical)

Uses known outcomes that are equally likely to

compute an expected probability.

Examples:

The chance of rolling a 4 on a fair dice is 1 out of

6.
 Basic principles of Permutation
and Combination
Permutations:
Permutation means arrangement of things in different
ways.
Formula:

n=total number of items in the sample

r=the number of items to be selected from
sample. Each of the six rows is a
!=product of all the integers from 1 to n. different permutation of
three distinct balls
E.g.: Out of three things A, B, C taking two at a time, we can
arrange them in the following manner
A B ; B A ; A C ; C A ;B C ; C B

•Here we find 6 arrangements

•In this order of arrangement is considered.
•The arrangement AB and the other arrangement BA are
different.
•The number of arrangements of the above is given as the
number of permutations of 3 things taken 2 at a time which
gives the value 6. This is written symbolically, 3P2 = 6
Combinations:
A combination is a selection of objects without
considering the order of arrangements.

Formula:
For example, out of three things A,B,C we have to select two
things at a time.
This can be selected in three different ways as follows:
A B; A C ; B C

•Here the selection of the object A B and B A are one and the
same.
•Hence the order of arrangement is not considered in
combination.
•Here the number of combinations from 3 different things taken
2 at a time is 3.
 Concept of probability/ laws of probability

Addition theorem on probabilities for mutually exclusive events:

Mutually exclusive events:

Two or more events are said to be mutually exclusive, when the
occurrence of any one event excludes the occurrence of the other
event. Mutually exclusive events cannot occur simultaneously.
E.g.: when egg is incubated there are only two possibilities; it
hatches or doesn’t hatch but both cant occur simultaneously,
 Statement

If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the

probability of the occurrence of either A or B is the sum of
individual probabilities of A and B.
ie P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)
U=union

The chance of rolling a 1 or 2 on a six-sided die is

Multiplication theorem on probabilities for independent

events:
Independent events:
Events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one does
not affect the others.
Eg : if we consider 2 eggs kept for hatching. Its obvious that the
outcome from first egg doesnt depend or affect on other. This is
independent events.
 Statement:

If two events A and B are independent, the probability that both of

them occur is equal to the product of their individual probabilities.

i.e P(A∩B) = P(A) .P(B)

∩=intersection

if two coins are flipped the chance of both being heads is .

 Conditional probability

Two events A and B are said to be dependent when A

can occur only when B is known to have occurred (or

vice versa). The probability attached to such an event

is called the conditional probability.

If two events A and B are dependent, then the conditional
probability of B given A is:

Similarly the conditional probability of A given B is

given as
Conditional Probability example:
• Suppose there are 100 persons in a group, 60 males and 40
females.
• out of 100, 15 of them use spectacles and out of 15, 10 are
males.
• If A denotes male and B denotes a person using spectacles
then P(A) = 60/100 and P(B) = 15/100
• Now, the probability of a person using spectacles given
that he is a male = 10/60.
 Mathematical Expectation:

Expectation is a very basic concept and is employed widely in

decision theory, management science, system analysis, theory of
games and many other fields.
The expected value of a random variable is obtained by
considering the various values that the variable can take
multiplying these by their corresponding probabilities and
summing these products. Expectation of X is denoted by E(X).
.
E.g.: a farmer can sell an average of 2500 eggs per day during

summer months and 15000 eggs during other season. If the

probability of particular day of being hot is 0.4 and that being

cool is 0.6, let us find expected sale of eggs on that day.

Solution: given X1=2500, X2=15000, P1=0.4 and P2=0.6 then

E(X)=X1P1+X2P2

E(X)= 0.4*2500+0.6*15000= 10,000 Eggs are expected to be

sold.
APPLICATION:

1. Screening tests: symptoms are used for diagnosis of a disease and

hence can be considered for purposes of statistic as a “screening test”.
For this we need some terminologies:
A. Sensitivity: it is a probability that the symptom is present given that
the animal has a disease.
if A=symptom, B=disease,
sensitivity= P(A/B)
B. Specificity: it is the probability that the symptom is not present given
that the animal doesn’t have disease.
specificity= P(Aͨ/Bͨ) (c is the complement of respective events)
C. False positive and false negative: if the screening test indicate

presence of disease when the disease is not actually present, it is

called false positive and vice versa.

D. Prevalence: it is the probability of the animal currently having the

disease regardless of the duration of actually having it.

It is calculated as a simple ratio of number of animals having the

disease to that of total number of animal in population under study.

 E. incidence: It is the probability that an animal, not suffering
from disease, will develop the disease over a specified period of
time.

2. Risk difference and ratio: if Px is the probability of developing

disease in exposed animals and Py in unexposed animals, then it is
risk difference
Risk ratio is the ratio between two probabilities

3. Animal genetics: qualitative genetics has several application of

probability concepts. (mendels laws, epistatis, linkages etc)
THANK YOU