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Investor Presentation: July 2019
Investor Presentation: July 2019
July 2019
July 17,
Executive
summary
● On the path to a balanced fiscal budget
○ Primary fiscal deficit has been coming down consistently through a decline in spending in
real terms, on its way to reach a primary fiscal balance in 2019.
○ Fiscal consolidation at the central administration level has not been achieved at the expense
of Provincial finances. On the contrary, the consolidated fiscal position of the provinces is in a
surplus.
2. Macroeconomic Update
3. Systemic Competitiveness
a. Domestic Capital Markets
b. Energy
c. Infrastructure
Fiscal target is being
met
ACCUMULATED PRIMARY RESULT
% of GDP
4 consecutive
years
of consistently improving fiscal results
since the beginning of the
current
administration.
4
Income grows systematically above
spending
INTERANNUAL GROWTH OF INCOME AND SPENDING
In percentage
24 months
of consecutive higher growth in
income over primary
spending.
32 points
Of growth gap between inter-
annual income growth
and spending growth in
June.
5
Real spending has been falling for almost 20 consecutive
months
NATIONAL PRIMARY SPENDING (NON FINANCIAL PUBLIC SECTOR) ON A CASH BASIS
Annual Growth in percentage
19 consecutive
months
of continued reductions in
government primary
spending.
12%
was the drop in year-over-year
spending in real terms for
June
2019.
6
Primary fiscal balance will be achieved in
2019
PRIMARY RESULT
As % of GDP
7
Government spending is at the lowest level in 10
years
NATIONAL PRIMARY SPENDING (SPNF)
As % of GDP
8
Primary spending has fallen every year in this
administration
PRIMARY SPENDING
Inflation-adjusted pesos, % Change
9
Provinces have converted fiscal deficits into
surpluses
AGGREGATE PROVINCIAL FISCAL RESULT
In millions of pesos
10
Almost every province has improved its fiscal
performance...
PROVINCIAL PRIMARY RESULTS
As percentage of revenues
6 Provinces
had a primary surplus in 2015.
17 Provinces
had a primary surplus in 2018.
11
…measured on a primary and financial
basis
PROVINCIAL FINANCIAL RESULTS
As percentage of revenues
6 Provinces
had a financial surplus in 2015.
11 Provinces
had a financial surplus in 2018.
12
Provinces are increasingly responsible for their fiscal
performance
PROVINCIAL TAX REVENUES
As percentage of national tax revenues
13
1. Fiscal update
2. Macroeconomic Update
3. Systemic Competitiveness
a. Domestic Capital Markets
b. Energy
c. Infrastructure
Monetary policy has yielded a reduction in FX
volatility
NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE
Pesos per dollar
15
Monetary base has been reduced significantly in real
terms
MONETARY BASE + LEBAC + LELIQ CENTRAL BANK INTEREST BEARING LIABILITIES
Million ARS of May-2019 As a proportion of international reserves
sep may
ago jun
jul
16
Economic activity is
recovering
17
Growth of exports has resumed since
2016
TOTAL EXPORTS
LTM in USD bn
Total
Without
grains
&
oilseeds
18
Nine months of trade surpluses reverted the trade
balance
TRADE BALANCE
LTM in USD Bn
19
Sectorial evidence of growth in
exports
OIL & GAS TRUCKS (PICK-UPS)
USD mm USD mm
Fuente: INDEC 20
1. Fiscal update
2. Macroeconomic Update
3. Systemic Competitiveness
a. Domestic Capital Markets
b. Energy
c. Infrastructure
Converting USD debt to pesos
22
Conservative maturity
profile
LETES AND LECAPS HELD BY PRIVATE INVESTORS LECAPS MATURITIES HELD BY PRIVATE INVESTORS
USD bn equivalent ARS Bn
23
Debt securities payments by creditor
type
Only 30%
of bond maturities coming due in 2020 are
denominated in hard currency.
24
Digitalization have simplified domestic capital market
access
COMPANIES HAVING ACCESS TO CAPITAL MARKETS FINANCING
Number of Issuers
by +33%.
has
the capital markets
Doubled.
Source: CNV. 25
Note: Trustees include only those companies not registered as issuers with the CNV. SMEs placing checks and promissory notes in the secondary market are not included.
More investors in mutual funds thanks to access
simplification
INVESTORS IN MUTUAL FUNDS
Total count of registered accounts
5X
is the number of times that the investor
base has grown since 2015.
+570 thousand
investors have been added to the mutual funds
market between 2015 and 2019.
+260 thousand
investors through were added through
digital platforms.
26
Source: CNV based on information provided by CAFCI and ACDI
Stronger market structure through the composition of
players
EVOLUTION OF REGULATED AGENTS BY CNV
Number of registered entities
More financial
release
Thanks to an increase in the
number of agents.
+60 %
has the number of agents
ruled by CNV grown between
2015 and 2019.
27
Note: Neither brokerage agents, nor collective investment agents are included. Source: CNV.
1. Fiscal update
2. Macroeconomic Update
3. Systemic Competitiveness
a. Domestic Capital Markets
b. Energy
c. Infrastructure
Energy subsidies remain on a reduction
path
ENERGY SUBSIDIES
Percentage of GDP
29
The energy trade deficit has been wiped
out
ENERGY TRADE BALANCE
USD Bn
30
Market prices stabilize with reduced Government
participation
NATURAL GAS DOMESTIC PRICE AND GOVERNMENT PARTICIPATION
In USD/MMBTU
31
Natural gas exports are taking
off
MONTHLY NATURAL GAS EXPORTS 2018 - APRIL 2019
MCM/DAY
32
The renewable energy segment is
underway
In commercial Under
operation constructio
n
Number of
42 98
projects
Power
1.200 MW 3.580 MW
capacit
y
140 projects in commercial Estimate
USD 1.8 Bn USD 5.4 Bn
operation and construction entailing a nvestmen
d
it
total investment of USD 7.2 Bn and
generating 4,790 MW
33
1. Fiscal update
2. Macroeconomic Update
3. Systemic Competitiveness
a. Domestic Capital Markets
b. Energy
c. Infrastructure
We are building the roadways that were not being built before
x10
The kilometre of asphalt costs 53%
less than in 2015 in
the
construction of highways and 35%
less in the construction of roadways
35
Double carriage trucks are reducing transportation
costs
+30% to 60%
of load than a conventional
truck
-30%
in transportation costs
We have authorized the use of climbed-load and
double carriage trucks in more than
40 thousand km of national roads and
36
138 thousand km of provincial roads
Trains have been improved to reduce transportation
time
+ 80%
2015-2018
39
Modernization of 90% of the country’s
airports
18 years 4 years
COMPLETED
7
RUNWAYS 13
20
NEW TERMINALS 7
NEW
7
LIGHTING SYSTEMS
29
NEW
CONTROL TOWERS 1 7
40
Flights revolution: connecting the provinces
29 57 +97%
Not going Not going
through through
Buenos Aires Buenos Aires
41
Flights revolution: connecting the provinces and the
world
December 2015 May 2019
15 39 +160%
Not going Not going
through through
Buenos Buenos Aires
Aires
42
Roadway works to improve the quality of
life
Metrobus
La Matanza 43
INVESTOR PRESENTATION
July 2019