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SIMULATION OF RAILWAY OPERATIONS

DEFINITION AND HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT OF SIMULATION

MODELLING

Asst. Prof. Marjana Petrović, Ph.D.

 Content
• Definition
• Terminology
• Historical development
• Purpose of simulation
• Advantages and disadvantages of simulations
• Conclusion and interesting facts

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 Definition
• Simulation – reproduction real object or
processes as a model [1]
• Great number of object or processes can be
simulated using computer programs
• Simulation is suitable method for reproduction
of realty within virtual process [1]

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 Definition
• Simulation models are made to imitate
transportation on transport networks during time
and space in order to predict system
performances [2]
• Simulation models include mathematical and
logical abstractions of the real world systems
implemented into computer programs
• Simulation model – experiment that you
conduct in laboratory instead on field [2]
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 Definition
• Modelling is the process closely connected
with the way human thinks and sole problems
[3]
• Models can be:
– Material (chemical elements)
– symbolic
• Mathematical (differential equations)
• Conceptual (activity in projects)
• Computer (queue modelling) [3]

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 Terminology
• Model– certain combination of computer program and input
dana develop/chosen from expert for specific purpose.
Same model can be used in different time periods and
different variant
• model is a set of algorithms and equations that can be used
to describe system behavior
• Simulation is execution of the program that consists from
mentioned algorithms and equations
• Calibration – process in which expert chooses parameters
that best describes real world situation and compares them
with the model. Model is calibrated during development.

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 Terminology
• Parameters used for process of calibration can
describe driver behavior (driving distance,
lane change time, driver aggressiveness…)
• Verification– comparison of the output data
with situation that expert expects from the
input data (example: traffic load)

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 Terminology
• Validation – process in which expert compares
overall performance of the system (in the model)
with forecast based on historical dana. It is
conducted after model development! (example:
number of pax/vehicles on certain road segment)
• For calibration and validation of the model
expert chooses different data set!
• Important difference – calibration is done during
model development and validation after [2]

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 Historical development
• Beginning of the simulation - 1777 „Buffon
needle problem”
• 1812 Laplace improved solution so name
changed into „Buffon-Laplace solution”
• Student’s t-distribution (Gosset's t-distribution)

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 Historical development
• Simulation in different fields of research
developed independently
• Types of simulation:
– Physical simulation
– Interactive simulation - simulators
– Computer simulation

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 Historical development
• Computer simulations develop with the
development of the computers
• Computer graphics played important role in
simulation development (before that results
were shown in tables and charts)
• Manhattan project– modeling nuclear
detonation process (using Monte Carlo
method)

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 Historical development
• In 1960 Keith Douglas Tocher developed first
general simulation program
• First book about simulation: The Art of
Simulation (1963.)
• 1960.-1961. IBM developed General Purpose
Simulation System (managing phone calls,
reservation of airline tickets, urban transportation
management…)
• 1963. SIMSCRIPT is developing [4]

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 Historical development
• Use of simulations in medicine
• Use of simulation in entertaining industry
• Simulation in manufacturing – measuring
system performance such as machines
utilization, people utilization, bottlenecks…
• Simulation of natural disasters, economic
simulation, transport simulation….

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 Puropse of simulation
• Simulation modelling and analysis of different
types of systems conducts with the purpose of
(Pedgen et al, 1995.):
– Having insight in the functioning of the system
(bottlenecks in complex systems)
– Development with the purpose of system improvement
– Cheap way to test new concept or system prior to
implementation
– Gaining information/knowledge without real system
disturbance (safety check on airport)

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 Simulation advantages
• Conducting experiments in less time
comparing to reality
• Reducing analytical requirements–
mathematician were able to study complex
systems, but with the simulation development
that changed
• Model can be shown in a simple way due to
animation development [5]

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 Disadvantages
• So called garbage in, garbage out problem
• Can’t give simple answers on complex
problems (it is possible to simplify a problem
but not always)
• Problem of unrealistic expectations – one can’t
solve a problem using simulation

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 Important elements
• Model development means specialized training
• Simulation modelling and analysis can require
lots of time and can be expensive
• Minimum knowledge of statistics is required
in order to understand simulation results [5]

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 Famous quotes
• „You Cannot Study a System by Stopping It” –
Dune, Frank Herbert
• „Run it Again” – Star Trek: The Next
Generation
• „Is That Some Kind of Game You Are
Playing” [5]

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 Conclusion
• The future of the simulation?
• Simulation of the transport systems?

• http://www.urbansim.com/
• https://
courses.planetizen.com/courses?f%5B0%5D=i
m_field_topics%3A352
• http://www.uh.edu/~
lcr3600/simulation/historical.html
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 Interesting things
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0KHiiTtt4w
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdnSo7533DI
• https://
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCMafswcNkY
• https://
www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUFRWMEiKHo
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4rCzA8fS84

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 Literature
1. I.A. Hansen, J. Pahl: Railway Timetable & Traffic –
Analysis – Modelling - Simulation, EURAIL PRESS 2008.
2. Traffic Analysis Toolbox Volume III: Guidelines for
Applying Traffic Microsimulation Modeling Software, FHA,
2004.
3. Čerić, V.: Simulacijsko modeliranje, Školska knjiga, Zagreb
4. http://www.landersimulation.com/eng/training-with-
simulation/the-world-in-motion/history-of-simulation/
5. Chung, C.A.: Simulation Modeling Handbook – A Practical
Approach, CRC Press, 2004.

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 marjana.petrovic@fpz.hr

THANK YOU!

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