From Aquino to Aquino

Transitional Challenges and

Presidential Leadership in
Democratizing Philippines
Dr. Julio C. Teehankee
De La Salle University
Manila, Philippines
 The Puzzle?
• In a developing democracy like the Philippines,
identifying the ineffectiveness of our presidents
has become an obsession.
• “Pundits are quick to point out what is wrong,
but short on explaining what is wrought.”
►What can Philippine presidents actually do during
their term?
►What factors prevents or enables them to provide
presidential leadership?
►What is the impact of the presidential transition on
the rest of their term?
 The Philippine Presidency
• the most durable in the
Asian region
• one of three
presidential systems in
East Asia (South Korea
& Indonesia)
• fifteen presidents since
the first Philippine
Republic was
inaugurated in 1899
 The Philippine Presidency:
American Template

Personal Model Regime Model Structured Choice Model

Richard Neustadt Stephen Skowronek Robert Lieberman
• presidents must • presidents come to • opportunities for
persuade power within regimes strategic presidential
• reputation, (institutional action within
prestige, arrangement) structurally defined &
perception, & • structural pattern of delimited situation
judgement regime change • structure & agency,
• personal style • cycle of presidents regimes & choice
within regimes
 The Philippine Presidency:
Latin American Parallelisms

While the Philippine

presidency is patterned
after the American
template, it is rooted in
Latin American
practices.
 The Philippine Presidency:
Pangulo Regime
“Pangulo Regime”
► supremacy of the
executive and puts
premium on the value of
pagdamay
► metaphor for the body
politic
► Aguinaldo, Quezon,
Laurel, Marcos
► legitimation for
authoritarianism;
partyless democracy
 The Philippine Presidency:
Democratization
1. transitional – teleological process
towards democratic consolidation
2. changeless – no real process or
progress, same-same
3. cyclical - regime establishment,
development, challenge, decay, and
new regime
 Arguments
• Presidential Regimes and Presidential
Time
• Campaign Narratives and Presidential
Narratives
• Narrative Cycles in the Post Marcos
Philippine Presidency
• Making Narratives Stick: The Role of
Strategic Players and Coalition-building
 Presidential Regimes
• a president ascends to power within a particular set
of institutions or “regime” that largely shapes the
presidential style of leadership.
• Regime – “commitments of ideology and interest
embodied in pre-existing institutional
arrangements.”
• Presidents find themselves facing different obstacles
to leadership based on their relation to existing
“regimes”
• Presidents are either builders, consolidators,
articulators, or repudiators
 Presidential Time
• The recurrence of regime orientations creates
a structured context for presidential
leadership within a pattern of “political time.”
• Political Time – “medium through which
presidents received commitments of ideology
and interest and claim authority to intervene
in their development.”
• Successive presidents can face dramatically
distinct political and institutional challenges.
Presidential Leadership: Configuration
& Choice
• Presidential actions are determined by
historically-articulated institutional
configurations.
• But these configurations determine
context, they do not determine action
• Presidents face strategic choices –
choices given by institutionally
configured situations
 Narratives
Narratives - stories or discourses with a clear
sequential order that connect events in a meaningful
way. (Hinchman & Hinchman 1997)
Political Narratives – narratives (i.e. "populist", "rich-
versus-poor" and "reformist", "good governance“)
used by politicians in the context of electoral
democracy in the Philippines (Thompson 2010)
Two Types: Campaign and Presidential Narratives
Cycle of Narratives: reformist, developmentalist, and
populist
The Philippine Presidency: Within the
Prism of Political Time
Foundational Regimes
1st Republic (1899- Definitive Regimes
1901)
Prevailing Regime
American Colonial 3rd Republic (1946-
(1898-1943, 1945-46) 1972) 5th Republic (1986-
2nd Republic (1943-45) 4th Republic (1972- present)
1986)
Transitional Challenges Under the Post-
Marcos Presidency
The Great Repudiator - founder of EDSA regime

Orthodox Innovator - competent ally

Populist Challenger - Marcos revivalist

Apostate – born from EDSA, mutated into Marcos

The Loyal Son – heir to the EDSA legacy

 Role of Strategic Groups
1. Business – protectionist vs. global
2. Church – conservative vs. progressive
3. Civil Society – radical vs. moderate
4. Military – professional vs. adventurists
5. Politicians – traditional vs. issue-oriented
Making Narratives Stick
Strong Narrative, Stable Coalition

Strong Narrative, from Weak to Strong Coalition

Strong Narrative - from Strong to Weak Coalition

From Strong to Weak Narrative, Stable Coalition

Strong Narrative, Weakening Coalition?

Post-Marcos Presidency & the EDSA
Regime
Thank you very much!