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Investment Analysis - Bba 314
Investment Analysis - Bba 314
1: OVERVIEW OF INVESTMENT
ANALYSIS
• Definition: • Objectives of Investment Analysis
• Investment Analysis is the process of evaluating 1. Maximizing wealth using the available resources
an investment for profitability and risk involving an ie if one has invested shares in a company, what
examination and assessment of economic and is the return on investment.
market trends, earning prospects, earning ratios
and various other indicators and factors to 2. Maximizing profits- major objective of business.
determine the suitable investment strategies. 3. Minimizing risks- a chance of future loss which
• When making investment decisions, investors may can be foreseen- put a policy in place.
consider a range of options ranging from a small 4. Liquidity-Be able to settle obligations when they
business to the investment a large scale corporate fall due.
projects.
5. Hedging against inflation
• Thus investment analysis could also mean the
process of judging an investment for income, risk
and resale value
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
• Definition: • Objectives of Financial Management
• Financial Management refers to the efficient and 1. Maximizing wealth using the available resources
effective management of the money (funds) in ie if one has invested shares in a company, what
such a manner as to accomplish the objectives of is the return on investment.
the organization.
2. Maximizing profits- major objective of business.
3. Minimizing risks- a chance of future loss which
• It is a top management’s operational activity of a can be foreseen- put a policy in place.
business that is responsible for obtaining and
effectively utilizing the funds necessary for efficient 4. Liquidity-Be able to settle obligations when they
operation.(Joseph Massie) fall due.
5. Flexibility- Ability to look at alternative sources
eg bank overdraft to pay workers.
6. Financial control- set targets, monitor
performance, compare and correct deviations
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
DECISIONS:
1. Investment decision: 2. Financing decisions:
- It means investing in long term assets which - This is where you are going to get money
will generate money for you in future eg from and decisions include- how much do you
buildings, land, vehicles, shares etc. need, when do you need it, on what terms,
which source ie bank loan, issue of shares,
sale of assets etc.
- These are important because they involve
- It is important to make correct decisions
huge sums of money, decisions are not easy to
reverse and you may acquire assets that may because some involve costs such as interest
not help you compete favorably. and risk of loosing mortgage.
3
FINANCIAL MGT DECISIONS Cont’d
3. Asset management decisions
(Working capital management) • Profitability is the ability to get adequate returns to
shareholders ie decrease cash and invest in assets
Level of liquidity
• It means having less investments in current assets
& profitability such as bank, cash etc.
Liquidity
Profitability
• The Finance Manager should invest optimumly ie
not so much and not so little to get a return
Investment in Assets
4
FINANCIAL MGT DECISIONS Cont’d
4. Profit Allocation:
NB. The above financing decisions are very important
for every company’s success and requires the input
of a qualified and competent Finance manager who is
-This involves distributing profits equitably ie part of top management
give shareholders as well as maintaining some
for organizational expansion
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Functions of Financial Management
( Role of Finance Manager)
1. To Forecast the financial needs of the 7. Pay periodic commitments on the money
company to operate ie HR, Procurement, raised eg interest, taxes, salaries etc.
Administration, Marketing etc. 8. Repay back the original amounts at maturity.
2. To design financial securities to investors
9. Weighing the alternative sources and
that will raise money. balancing between equity and debt (financial
3. To issue securities to investors and raise structure)
money. 10. Record keeping and production of routine
4. To use the money to purchase real assets financial reports to assist in decision making.
required for company’s operations. 11. Interaction with other departments eg IT,
5. To ensure there is surplus from operations marketing, production etc (good relationship)
6. Re- invest excess money generated so as to 12. Cash management- sound internal controls
create more money.( Don’t keep large
sums of money)- Investment decision
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Financial objective of organizations
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Other objectives of organizations
2. Wealth maximization: This is the total cash flow Solution:
that is expected from all assets of the business
discounted to get its present value/worth and its an
improvement of the profit motive of the organization.
Year 1: Year 2:
Example: PV= FV PV= 1,440,000
Supposing company ‘A’ would like to know the wealth (1+r)n (1+0.3)2
addition that will be desired if it invested in a boda Pv = 1,440,000
boda which is expected to give them an average of
shs 1,440,000 over the next 2 years. If the current (1+0.3)
bank rate borrowing rate is 30%.
Required. Pv = 1,107,693 PV= 852,071
Discount the cash flows of this boda boda to derive Since this looks at all cash from all investment and
the wealth that will be maximized from this project. puts in consideration for time value of money, NPV
from the above project will be
1,107,693+852,071=1,959,764
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Other objectives cont’d
(Non- Financial)
3. Corporate and social responsibility ie giving back STAKE HOLDERS:
to society where organization operates from eg
sponsoring events like MTN Marathon where - A stake holder is one who can affect or be affected by
proceeds go to cancer patients actions,objectives,policies of the organization. They
include;
4. Survival and growth ie Going concern.
1. Employees
5.Employee motivation
2. Share holders
6.Government obligation eg taxes
3. Management
7. Protecting the environment tree planting
4. Suppliers
8. Sales maximization.
5. Government
6. Competitors
7. Pressure groups- trade union, environmentalist
8. Public
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FORMS OF BUSINESS ORGANISATIONS:
Advantages of sole proprietor:
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Forms of business cont’d
2. Partnership: Disadvantages
- It is a relationship that exists between 2 or more
persons carrying on business in common with the
1. Un limited liability
view of making and sharing profits.
- They share profits or losses according to agreed 2. Profits are shared
terms or formula eg Ratios. 3. No secrecy in business
4. In case one works hard, proceeds are shared
Advantages 5. In case one makes a mistake all suffer
1. Share skills and talents
2. Raise more capital than a sole proprietor
3. Reduced tax liability
4. Going concern
11
Forms of business cont’d
Advantages
3. Corporation/ Limited liability companies 1. Limited liability to external debt
It is a separate legal entity created through state 2. Going concern- live beyond life of its
approval, treated as different from its share holders ie founders.
can sue or be sued in their own name.
3. Raise more capital through issue of shares
Disadvantages
4. A lot of documentation to be incorporated
5. A lot of reporting requirements- non
compliance is eminent.
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CORPORATE GOVERNANCE:
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Corporate Governance cont’d
AGENCY THEORY:
- This is the relationship that exists between - Another reason why managers may do their best to
management and the shareholders of the company improve financial performance of their company is
where managers act as agents for share holders, that often their pay is related to the size or
using delegation powers to run the affairs of the profitability of the company.
company in the best interest of share holders. - Another source of conflict is attitudes towards risk
because share holders can spread his risk by
investing in many companies but manager’s
AGENCY PROBLEM financial security depends only on that company
- A Potential conflict of interest between the agent, that employs him.
share holders and creditors may arise. - Agency theory suggest that audited accounts of a
- Share holders posses the right to remove directors limited company are important source of post
decision information minimizing investor’s agency
from office but the share holders have to take the
costs in contrast to alternative approaches.
initiative to do so as in many companies they lack
energy to take such action.
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Agency problem cont’d
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Financial Control
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Roles of Financial Financial
Planning
Controller:
1 .Ensure correct accounting entries- with supporting
documents.
• Financial Plan is a comprehensive evaluation of an
2. Establish procedures that guarantee security of investor’s current and future financial state by
company resources/assets- custody of records. using current known variables to predict future
3.Data analysis and interpretation of financial data cash flows, asset values and withdraw plans.
Financial Reporting- budgets, cash flow, balance • It is an ongoing process that helps you to make
sheet etc. sensible decisions about money that can help you
achieve your goals in life.
4.Budgeting and Forecasts
5.Preparation of taxes, salaries and other deductions.
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Steps in creating a sound Financial plan
1. Establish your goals in life ie short term, 5. Implement your plan- make the changes and make
medium and long term. it happen.
2. Work out what assets and liabilities you have- 6. Monitor and review your plan at least yearly and
write them down. make adjustments where necessary.
3. Evaluate your current financial position- how
close are you to achieving your goals.
4. Develop your plan- create a ‘’route map’’ for
achieving your different goals.
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FINANCIAL FORECASTING:
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Chap 2:
SOURCES OF FINANCE/ FINANCING
SOURCES
1. Short term sources (W.K Finances)
- Funds are needed for different purposes in 1. Trade credit- suppliers
organizations for example investing in new 2. Accrued expenses- salaries, taxes.
business, buying fixed assets, and meeting
operational expenses. 3. Differed income- advance payments to supply goods
or services.
- There are many sources but these vary in respect
4. Bank overdraft
to purpose, cost, risk and period for which funds
could be available for use. 5. Retained profits- un distributed
- These sources are categorized two ie 6. Loans from money lenders
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FINANCING SOURCES Cont’d
2. Long term sources:(Exceed one year) 3. Internal sourcing( From within)
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FINANCING SOURCES Cont’d
4. External Sourcing: Factors to consider before borrowing:
1. Ordinary share capital 1. Size of the organization
2. Preference share capital 2. Cost of borrowing
3. Debentures 3. Risk associated
4. Bank loans 4. Terms of repayment
5. Trade credit and discounts 5. Cash inflows
6. Hire purchase 6. Period of repayment
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FINANCING SOURCES Cont’d
Capital and Money Markets:
Difference
Role of capital mkt Authority
USE
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Chap 3: CAPITAL BUDGETING (INVESTMENT
DECISION)
Reasons to be careful in investment decisions
- Capital Budgeting/investment decision is the
commitment of funds into a given venture with
1. It shapes the type of business and industry
a purpose of generating returns in future.
that the entity is in eg for a hospital it will be
different from a bank.
- The funds can be invested in Real investment 2. It shapes the business risk that the entity will
like real estates, factory machinery, land or face – each business has unique risk.
Financial assets like buying bonds, shares and
3. It is difficult to reverse investment decision.
money/capital market instruments like fixed
deposits. 4. . It requires an assessment of future events
that are difficult to predict.
5. Firms commit huge amounts of money-capital
assets
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The capital Budgeting process/stages:
1. Definition of the organizational objectives ie what 5. Selection of the most appropriate investment that
does the organization want to achieve? will add wealth to organization.
2. Generation of ideas on the possible investment ie 6. Implementation of the best idea
from friends, consultants, media, internet etc.eg
7. Monitoring and control ie compare the intended
school, supermarket, -involve many people.
goal with the achievement and make corrections in
3. Screening the investment ideas with the purpose case of deviation.
of separating the feasible from a number of
proposals- ability.
4. Evaluation of each investment idea by using
different appraisal tools to determine the most
viable- NPV,IRR,PBP,PI,ARR.
- The co assesses viability, feasibility and suitability.
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Investment Appraisal (Evaluation)
Definition: Relevant cash flows in investment appraisal:
- This is the process of assessing or ascertaining the
viability, feasibility and suitability of the
investment. These are inflows or outflows which occur as a
result of a project. These include;
- This process starts by looking at the forecast of the
financial data for a particular investment the 1. Initial out lay.
company is interested in.
2. Expected working capital requirements.
- Only relevant financial information should be
considered ie one that can be changed if a decision 3. Relevant costs- over the useful life of a
is undertaken. project.
4. Cash in flows.
5. Profit information.
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Investment Appraisal cont’d
• Irrelevant costs:
Sunk costs:
These are costs of resources already acquired which
can not be changed.
- These costs are created by a decision made in the
past and will not be changed by decisions made in
future eg
- Feasibility study
- Consultancy for future investment
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Chap 4: INVESTMENT SELECTION TECHNIQUES
(APPRAISAL TOOLS)
1. PAY BACK PERIOD:
• These are categorized into two ie - This determines the time it takes for an
investment to recover its initial money
invested in a project or business (recouping).
1. Non discounting techniques - Tools that
ignore Time Value of Money (TVM) eg Pay - Given two projects which are both viable, the
back period, ARR,ROI/ROCE. one with a shorter payback period is
preferred though each investor will have their
2. Discounting techniques – Those that own PBP.
consider TVM eg NPV, IRR and PI
(profitability index). - For a project with uniform cash flows, the
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Appraisal tools cont’d
Required:
- For projects with non- uniform cash flows, the - Assuming Mark expects this boda boda to have a
best method is to subtract the cash flows from the life span of 3 years and after which it will be sold
cash outflows until the out flows are exhausted. for shs 500,000, Compute the PBP of this boda
- Example: boda.
- If Mark purchased a boda boda today for shs 3
million for purposes of earning daily income. From - Solution:(shs 000)
analysis of the market, he has come up with the
following forecasts:
Year 1 2 3
- The rider will give him shs 10.000 per day for
6days a week. We assume the boda boda will be Cash collection 2,880 2,880 2,880
operational for 48 weeks a year as the balance is Scrap - - 500
for resting, repairs etc. 2,880 2,880 3,380
Cum.cash flows 2,880 5,760
Below Above
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Appraisal tools cont’d
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Appraisal tools cont’d
- From the above computation, shs 16,000 will Benefits of PBP:
be recovered at the end of year 3 but we
need shs 18,000. 1. It is easy to understand and interprete by
non finance individuals.
- Therefore,
2. It is the most commonly used appraisal
method as it can quickly eliminate
- PBP= 3Years + 2,000 = 1/2 investments that are not worth.
4,000 3. It is good for short term projects.
4. Investor knows when to recover his money.
PBP = 3 Years + 6 months 5. It can be used as an initial screening tool
before applying more advanced methods.
6. It is computed based on cash flows which
are more relevant than profit information.
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Weakness of PBP:
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ARR cont’d
Advantages of ARR/ROI
Av. Invest= Initial Inv + scrap value 1. It uses all available information that can be
verified through an audit process.
2 2. It can be understood in relation to the
ruling market of return.
3. Looks at the entire project life.
4. Simple and quick calculation.
5. It involves familiar concept of percentage
return. Eg ROCE
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ARR Cont’d:
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Example:
- Supposing ABC would like to set up a transport a) Solution:
hire services company that would require Initial
Investment in vehicles & infrastructure with shs
150 million over the next 4 years, expects
annual revenue of shs 60 million pa and Year 1 2 3 4
operating expenses of 30% of Revenue. Revenue 60m 60m 60m 60m
- Depn on MV will be on straight line at 25% & Expenses (18m) (18m) (18m) (18m)
the vehicle will be sold off after 4 years for
replacement at a Total of shs 60 million. Depn (37.5m) (37.5m) (37.5m) (37.5m)
Required Profit 4.5m 4.5m 4.5m 4.5m
a) Compute the profit of this business for this Profit on
period of 4 years and the ARR. Disposal mv - - - 60m
b) If ABC RRR was 30%, Is this a worthwhile Net profit 4.5m 4.5m 4.5m 64.5m
business?
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Example cont’d
b) Conclusion:
ARR= 4.5+4.5+4.5+64.5 = 19.5m
4 The investment is not viable because ARR
From (13%)is less than 30% required by the investor.
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DISCOUNTED CASHFLOW TECHNIQUES:
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TVM Cont’d
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Example:
- Supposing the ruling rate of interest in COST OF CAPITAL:
Ugandan market is 30%, then we should use
that to discount the cash flows. From the - The cost of capital is used by DCF analysis is
above example, the minimum return expected by the
providers of funds.
- Year 1 PV= 2,880,000 = 2,215,385.
- It is derived from the weighted average cost
(1+.3) 1
of capital (WACC) ie
- WACC= Ke* E + Kd * D
- Year 2 PV= 2,880,000 = 1,704,142
(E+D) (D+D)
(1+.3) 2
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COST OF CAPITAL Cont’d
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Examples of initial outlay:
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Computation of
initial out lay:
Particulars Amount
Purchase of equipment xx
Transport of equipment to site xx
Store NR-Sunk
License fees xx
Certification from UNBS xx
Specialized trainer xx
Installation costs xx
Initial WK xx
Consultancy & Research NR- Sunk
Total initial out lay (all occur in yr 0) xx
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Advantages of NPV: Limitations of
NPV:
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Assumptions of DCF
about timing of CF:
Read on the following adjustments.
1. Cash out lay to be incurred at the 1. Tax saving.
beginning of an investment ie now year 2. Working capital
zero.
3. Inflation
2. Cash out/inflows occurring during the
course of the period are assumed to occur
at once at the end of time period eg end of
year 1,2 etc. Example on NPV- SC Company- ref
3. If a cash out lay occurs at the beginning of
the time period, it is taken to occur at the
end of the previous period.
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INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (IRR):
Example:
- IRR is the discount rate that will equate the Given;
PV of in flows to the PV of out flows.
Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4
- It can be obtained by trial and error and it is
acceptable but to be more precise, an CF 1,051 246.1 348.8 586.2 355.9
interpolation method can be used Pv factor @ rate of 12%, NP V= 91m.
- Steps in obtaining IRR using interpolation - Since 12% yielded a positive NPV, we can
are; increase the disc. Rate to 25% & this will yield
1. Compute NPV using any discount rate eg the following:
from the example above (NPV) was 91m. - Yr 0 1 2 3 4
2. If the NPV obtained is positive, then the CF 1,051 246.1 348.8 586.2 355.9
higher discount rate shall be used to try and
obtain a negative NPV Pv f 25% 1 0.8 0.64 0.512 0.4096
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IRR Cont’d
Yr 0 1 2 3 4
CF 1,051 246.1 348.8 586.2 355.9 - a= Lower disc rate that gave rise to Positive
Pv f 25% 1 0.8 0.64 0.512 0.4096 NPV.
Pv (1,051) 197 223 300 146 - A = Positive NPV
NPV = (184.53) - b = Higher disc. Rate that gave rise to –ve NPV
- B = Negative NPV
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IRR Cont’d
IRR= 0.12+91,000,000 (0.13) Interpretation:
91,000,000 + 184,528,000 - When IRR is greater than the RRR, then the
investment will be viable because the investor can
recover all the funds invested and the reverse is
IRR= 0.12 + 91,000,000 (0.13) true if IRR is less than RRR
Advantages of IRR:
275,528,000
BODMAS
1. It calculates break-even point.
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PROFITABILITY INDEX (PI):
- The PI shows the cash flow generation From above example (ref IRR)
potential of every shilling invested.
- It is the ratio of the PV of cash inflows to the PI = 247+349+586+356
PV of cash outflows.
1,051
- It is used to choose the best project if all have PI = 1,538
positive NPV.
1,051
- NPV measures the wealth of all funds
invested where as PI measures the wealth
created by every shilling ie PI = 1.46
Intpn: For every shilling invested, it will generate
- PI = Total cash inflows shs 1.46. As long as PI is greater than 1, the
investment is viable because it will generate
Total cash outflows positive returns.
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