Air Pollution Modelling at the ITO intersection,

Delhi using ADMS-Urban

http://www.scribd.com/doc/24760637/A-
Report-on-Demand-for-Creation-of-Small-
States-in-India

K Prabhav Phalgun Supervisor

Dr. Mukesh Khare
Scope and Objective of Study
 Prediction of PM10 , CO & NOx concentration at
the Delhi Income Tax Office intersection
using various input parameters and
comparing it with the actual monitored value.

 The objective of project contains study of

ADMS-Urban and its predictive performance
by varying the model’s input parameters and
testing its sensitivity
ADMS Urban
 ADMS-Urban is a state-of-the-art advanced
atmospheric dispersion modeling software package
developed by Cambridge Environmental Research
Consultants (CERC) Ltd

 It allows the spatial distribution of measured values

to be represented, providing concentration values
in areas where monitoring equipment is absent

 Has been used extensively in various research

projects in the past to predict the concentrations of
pollutants
ADMS user interface
  
GIS
CAD Model of ITO intersection
Method
 Select Domain and prepare links
 Collect and Analyse Met Data
 Collect and Analyse Traffic Data
 Calculate Emissions
 Model Set Up
 Analyse spatial dispersion
 Predicted Results vs. Monitored Data
 Perform Sensitivity Analysis
 Exceedances and Extreme Value Prediction
Traffic Survey Data

 
  1 to 3 2 to 3 2 to 4 3 to 1 3 to 4 4 to 1 4 to 2 4 to 3
HV 2 2 142 16 202 140 10 130
Traffic flows
% 0 1 11 1 6 45 1 14
14000
LCV 0 8 4 4 26 0 10 12
% 0 3 0 0 1 0 1 1 12000

TRAFFIC VOLUME Veh/hr

CAR1 190 76 318 528 1100 78 254 250 10000
% 32 26 24 29 33 25 36 27 ROAD1
8000
CAR2 30 6 54 38 380 4 48 60 ROAD2
% 5 2 4 2 11 1 7 6 6000 ROAD3
M2W 182 120 422 730 752 40 180 294 4000 ROAD4
% 31 41 32 40 23 13 25 31
2000
M3W 138 70 244 358 568 32 150 124
% 23 24 19 20 17 10 21 13 0
TRACT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24

% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HOURS
NMV 52 10 126 140 306 18 56 66
% 9 3 10 8 9 6 8 7 Diurnal flow pattern of traffic at ITO intersection

It was observed that more than 90% of the

  traffic volume was between 7 am and 10 pm.
 
SUM 594 292 1310 1814 3334 312 708 936
Traffic Volumes road wise
CAR P 1 to 3 2 to 3 2 to 4 3 to 1 3 to 4 4 to 1 4 to 2 4 to 3 total
0.0 164.2 24.3 84.4 131.4 102.5 25.8 98.7 161.5 792.7
1.0 83.6 12.4 43.0 66.9 52.2 13.1 50.2 82.2 403.5
2.0 40.2 5.9 20.7 32.2 25.1 6.3 24.1 39.5 194.0
3.0 39.7 5.9 20.4 31.8 24.8 6.2 23.9 39.1 191.8
4.0 45.2 6.7 23.2 36.2 28.2 7.1 27.2 44.5 218.3
5.0 88.1 13.0 45.3 70.5 55.0 13.9 53.0 86.7 425.6
6.0 155.5 23.0 79.9 124.5 97.1 24.5 93.4 152.9 750.8
7.0 190.0 28.1 97.7 152.1 118.6 29.9 114.2 186.8 917.3
8.0 122.1 45.5 206.4 314.1 821.2 45.5 167.6 172.0 1894.4
9.0 0.0 233.9 433.2 929.0 1030.9 163.8 499.6 423.4 3713.7
10.0 295.9 203.4 610.3 850.7 906.2 147.9 462.3 436.4 3913.2
11.0 310.2 160.9 842.6 766.0 861.8 145.5 440.5 459.6 3987.2
12.0 294.0 96.8 899.1 605.2 719.3 121.0 352.7 421.9 3510.1
13.0 288.4 60.3 885.7 485.4 611.3 101.2 305.6 411.1 3149.0
14.0 324.3 61.8 803.1 447.9 562.2 92.7 308.9 478.8 3079.6
15.0 417.8 76.6 731.2 515.3 605.9 97.5 383.0 633.7 3461.2
16.0 546.0 121.3 639.0 606.6 679.4 105.2 517.7 869.5 4084.7
17.0 791.6 161.8 633.9 795.7 840.8 144.4 685.1 1222.8 5276.3
18.0 982.6 190.6 625.3 893.2 893.2 148.9 803.9 1369.6 5907.3
19.0 960.1 170.7 544.1 842.8 773.4 149.3 698.7 1216.1 5355.2
20.0 634.7 103.6 360.8 541.2 461.0 100.2 427.6 718.2 3347.2
21.0 572.8 Traffic
84.7 data
294.5 on458.5
weekdays,
357.7 Saturdays
90.1 and Sundays
344.2 563.4 2765.9
22.0 376.5 55.7 193.6 301.4 235.1 59.2 226.3 370.3 1818.0
23.0 299.1
have
44.2
been analyzed
153.8 239.4
separately
186.8 47.0 179.7 294.2 1444.2
Total 8022.6 1991.0 9271.1 10238.0 11049.7 1886.3 7288.1 10854.3 60601.2
 Emission Factors and rates
91- 96- 2000 2005 with
0.1400
PM 95 00 -05 -10 vintage
PM
2W2S 0.06 0.06 0.02 0.04 0.1200

2W4S 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.01 0.02

E
M 0.1000

F 0.0800
4WP 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01
ROAD1
4WD 0.15 0.19 0.02 0.08 0.0600 ROAD2

BUS D 0.80 0.30 0.60 ROAD3

0.0400 ROAD4
3W 0.02 0.02
0.0200
BUS CNG

LCV 0.65 0.65 0.0000

0.0000 5.0000 10.000015.000020.000025.0000
4W CNG 0.00 0.00

HCV 1.95 1.24 1.67

Hours
Meteorological Data
Exploratory Analysis
Concentration of NOx (µg/m3)
160
140 138
133
120 118 119
113 114 109
100 104 102 105
90 90.1
80 83.8 80.1 81.4 77.4
65.5 66 68.2 63.1 64.5
60
40 38.7 42
28.5
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Temperature
Output: CO
Exceedance Study
Exceedance probability is the probability that
a certain value is going to be exceeded.
 p = m/(n+1),

where m is the rank and n is the number of items

 The Recurrence Interval or Return Period (T) is the
average interval in years between events equaling
or exceeding a certain magnitude. The return
period is calculated from:
 
T = 1/p = (n+1)/m
 Exceedances plot for CO on 16th February, 2011
(Hourly)
120.00

p 100.00
r
o
80.00
b
a
b 60.00

i
l 40.00
i
t
y 20.00

0.00
0.00 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 10,000.00 12,000.00 14,000.00

Concentration of CO (µg/m3)
Extreme Value Prediction
 Theair pollution concentration is governed
by many complex and interrelated factors like
emission sources, wind speed & direction,
temperature etc.

 Asa result of this inherent uncertainty

associated, deterministic model may fail to
predict extreme value adequately

 Statistical
modeling offers an alternative and
pragmatic approach
Gumbel’s Distribution

 It is one of the widely used probability distribution
functions for extreme values in hydrologic and
meteorological studies for prediction of flood
peaks, maximum rainfalls, maximum wind speed
etc.

y= α(x-a) ; a= µ - 0.45005 (SD); α=1.2825/SD

µ= mean & SD= standard deviation
Confidence level
Due to the possible errors because of limited sample
size, an estimate of the confidence level is desirable

 𝑥 1 = 𝑥(+¿ / −) 𝑓 ( 𝑐 ) 𝑆𝑒 ¿
2
Proposed Gantt Chart for the remaining period

Report Writing

Analysis of Results obtained

Exceedances & Extreme Value Predictions

Sensitivity Analysis

Model Run

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
References
 MANUALS and BOOKS:
 ADMS-Urban User Guide
 Arthur C. Stern et al., ‘Fundamentals of Air Pollution’
 PhD Thesis, Mr. Prateek Sharma
 WEBSITES:
 www.wikipedia.com
 www.crri.com
 www.cpcb.com
 www.google.com
THANK YOU