Statistics and Probability

What is the probability of getting a head

when you toss a coin?
= ½
If a die is rolled, what is the probability of
having a six?
= 1/6
IDENTIFY THE WORD!
CLUES:

• Occurring without definite aim, reason, or

pattern

• Something unpredictable or unidentified

IDENTIFY THE WORD:

DNMAOR
IDENTIFY THE WORD:

OARMDN
IDENTIFY THE WORD:

AODRMN
IDENTIFY THE WORD:

OARMDN
IDENTIFY THE WORD:

AODRMN
IDENTIFY THE WORD:

RANDOM
IDENTIFY THE WORD!
CLUES:

• It is a symbol (A, B, x, y, etc.) that can

take on any of a specified set of values.
IDENTIFY THE WORD:

AABVRLEI
IDENTIFY THE WORD:

BAARLVEI
IDENTIFY THE WORD:

RBALVEIA
IDENTIFY THE WORD:

VARIABLE
RANDOM VARIABLE

Random
- occurring without definite aim, reason, or pattern
- something unpredictable or unidentified

Variable
- is a symbol (A, B, x, y, etc.) that can take on any of a
specified set of values.
RANDOM VARIABLES
LEARNING TARGETS:

At the end of the lesson, the students shall be able to:

- illustrate a random variable

- distinguish a discrete random variable
- distinguish a continuous random variable
- find the possible values of a random variable
RANDOM VARIABLE

-it is a numerical quantity that is assigned to the

outcome of an experiment
- a set of possible values from a random
experiment.
- It is usually written using a CAPITAL LETTER.
EXAMPLES: USED IN RANDOM VARIABLES IN REAL LIFE

The return on an investment in a one-year period.

The price of an equity.

The number of customers entering a store.

The sales volume of a store on a particular day.

The turnover rate at your organization next year.

Decision Making under Uncertainty.

IDENTIFY THE WORD!
CLUES:

• individually separate and distinct.

IDENTIFY THE WORD:

EICSDRET
IDENTIFY THE WORD:

SDICRETE
IDENTIFY THE WORD:

SDIERCET
IDENTIFY THE WORD:

DISCRETE
IDENTIFY THE WORD!
CLUES:

• forming an unbroken whole; without

interruption.
IDENTIFY THE WORD:

TCINOUONUS
IDENTIFY THE WORD:

ICNOTUONUS
IDENTIFY THE WORD:

CNOTIUUNOS
IDENTIFY THE WORD:

CONTINUOUS
TWO CATEGORIES OF RANDOM VARIABLE

1. DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE

2. CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLE

DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE

- a variable that takes on countable number of

distinct values which are whole numbers such as
0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,…
- the range is finite or countably infinite
- can be determined by counting
Number of steps to the top of Eiffel Tower
EXAMPLES:

- number of heads when you toss a coin

- number of students present

- number of people in a community

- number of households with television
 CONTINUOUS
RANDOM VARIABLE
• -a
variable that assumes an infinite number of
possible values including the decimals between
two counting numbers.

• - the range is continuous or would (literally) take

forever to count

• - can be determined by measuring

• The time a tourist stays at the top once s/he gets there.

•* Believe it or not, the answer ranges from 1652 to 1789.

EXAMPLES:

- distance from Sto.NiÑo building to the SHS

building
- weight of students in class
- a person’s height
- the height of mango trees in a farm
TWO TYPES OF RANDOM VARIABLES

 DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES  CONTINUOS RANDOM VARIABLES

 NUMBER OF SALES  LENGTH

 NUMBER OF CALLS  DEPTH
 SHARES OF STOCK  VOLUME
 PEOPLE IN LINE  TIME
 MISTAKES PER PAGE  WEIGHT
LET’S HAVE AN EXERCISE!
 A. CLASSIFY THE FOLLOWING AS EITHER
CONTINUOUS OR DISCRETE DATA.

1. The height of mango trees in a farm

CONTINUOUS
2. The area of lots in a subdivision
CONTINUOUS
3. The number of students who joined a field trip.
DISCRETE
 A. CLASSIFY THE FOLLOWING AS EITHER
CONTINUOUS OR DISCRETE DATA.

4. The time it takes a student to finish his test in PROB/STATS

CONTINUOUS
5. The number of registered nurses in the city.
DISCRETE
6. The capacity of an auditorium.
DISCRETE
SUM IT UP!

RANDOM VARIABLES
DISCRETE
CONTINUOUS
RANGE SPACE

- the set of all possible values for a given random

variable.
STEPS IN DETERMINING THE VALUES OF THE RV IN AN
EXPERIMENT:

LIST THE SAMPLE SPACE OF THE EXPERIMENT.

COUNT THE NUMBER OF RANDOM VARIABLE IN EACH

OUTCOME AND ASSIGN THIS NUMBER TO THIS
OUTCOME
Suppose two coins are tossed and we are interested to
determine the number of heads that will come out. Let us
use H to represent the number of heads that will come out.
Determine the values of the random variable H.
Step 1. List the sample space of the experiment
S= { HH, HT,TH,TT}
OUTCOME NO. HEADS (VALUE of H) The value of the RV H in
HH 2 the experiment are 0, 1
HT 1
and 2
TH 1 RANGE SPACE
TT 0
{ 0, 1, 2}
EXAMPLE 1:

Suppose three coins are tossed. Let Y be the

random variable representing the number of tails
that occur. Find the values of the random
variable Y.
EXAMPLE 1:
Value of the Random Variable Y
Possible Outcomes
(number of TAILS)
EXAMPLE 1:
Value of the Random Variable Y
Possible Outcomes
(number of TAILS)
TTT 3

TTH 2

THT 2

THH 1

HTT 2

HTH 1

HHT 1

HHH 0
EXAMPLE 1:

range space = {0, 1, 2, 3,}

EXAMPLE 2:

Let X be the number of boys in a family of three

children. Determine the values of the random
variable X.
EXAMPLE 2:
Value of the Random Variable X
Possible Outcomes
(number of Boys)
BBB

BBG

BGB

BGG

GGG

GBG

GGB

GBB
EXAMPLE 2:
Value of the Random Variable X
Possible Outcomes
(number of Boys)
BBB 3

BBG 2

BGB 2

BGG 1

GGG 0

GBG 1

GGB 1

GBB 2
EXAMPLE 3:

range space = {0, 1, 2, 3,}

EXAMPLE 3

A basket contains 10 ripe and 4 unripe bananas.

If three bananas are taken from the basket one
after the other, determine the possible values of
the random variable R representing the number
of ripe bananas.
S= { RRR,RRU,RUR,URR,URU,RUU,UUU}
OUTCOME NO. OF RIPE BANANAS (VALUE OF R)

RRR 3
The VALUES of the random
2 variable R (number of ripe
RRU
bananas) in this experiment are
RUR 2
0, 1, 2 and 3.
2
URR
1
UUR

URU 1

RUU 1

0
UUU
SEATWORK: Determine the values of the random variable
(range space) in each of the following situations:

1. A meeting of consuls was attended by 5 Americans and 3

Germans. If four consuls were selected at random one after
the other, determine the values of the random variable G
representing the number of Germans.

2. Let X be the number of boys in a family of four children.

Determine the values of the random variable X.
OBJECTIVE:

Construct the probability distribution of a

discrete random variable or also known as the
probability mass function.
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Review: Simple frequency distribution.
The following data show the nationalities of the participants in the international Conference on Human Rights held in
the Philippines. Construct a frequency distribution for these data.

America Italian Japanese German

German American Italian German
Filipino Japanese Filipino Korean
German American American Italian
Chinese Japanese German Japanese
Korean Italian Japanese Filipino
American Japanese Japanese Filipino
Chinese American
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
America Italian Japanese German
German American Italian German
Filipino Japanese Filipino Korean
German American American Italian
Chinese Japanese German Japanese
Korean Italian Japanese Filipino
American Japanese Japanese Filipino
Chinese American

NATIONALITY NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS

AMERICAN 6
GERMAN 5
FILIPINO 4
CHINESE 2
KOREAN 2
ITALIAN 4
JAPANESE 7
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

- also known as probability mass function, is a table

that gives a list of probability values along with their
associated value in the range of a discrete random
variable.
STEPS:

Step 1: List the sample space of the experiment.

Let a letter represent (X, Y etc)your
variables.

Step 2: Count the number of variables(needed) in

each outcome and assign that number to
the outcome.
STEPS:

Step 3: Construct the frequency distribution of the

values of the random variable.
Step 4: Construct the probability distribution of
the random variable by getting the
probability of each value of the random
variable.
Step 5: Construct the Probability Histogram.
EXAMPLE 1:

Suppose three coins are tossed. Let Y be the

random variable representing the number of tails
that occur. Find the values of the random
variable Y.
EXAMPLE 1:
Value of the Random Variable Y
Possible Outcomes
(number of TAILS)
TTT 3

TTH 2

THT 2

THH 1

HTT 2

HTH 1

HHT 1

HHH 0
EXAMPLE 1:
Value of the Random Variable
Y Number of Occurences
(number of TAILS)
3 1

2 3

1 3

0 1
EXAMPLE 1:
Number of No. of Probability
Tails Occurences (P(X))
  1
0 1 8

 3
1 3 8

 3
2 3
8

3 1   1
8
EXAMPLE 1:
Number of Tails Probability (P(X))

0 0.125

1 0.375

2 0.375

3 0.125
Note:
Just like any other statistical distribution, a probability
mass function may be graphed using a histogram in which
the horizontal axis represents the values of the random
variable X and the vertical axis gives the corresponding
probabilities, P(X).
 0.4

0.3
Probability

0.2
P(x)

0.1

0
0 1 2 3
X
EXAMPLE 2:

A basket cointains 10 ripe and 4 unripe bananas. If

three bananas are taken from the basket one after the
other, determine the possible values of the random
variable R representing the number of ripe bananas.
EXAMPLE 2: List of sample space of the experiment.
Value of the Random Variable R
Possible Outcomes
(number of Ripe Bananas)
RRR 3

RRU 2

RUR 2

RUU 1

UUU 0

URU 1

URR 2

UUR 1
EXAMPLE 2:
Value of the Random Variable R
(number of Ripe bananas) Number of Occurences

3 1

2 3

1 3

0 1
EXAMPLE 2:

Number of Ripe
0 1 2 3
Bananas

       
Probability (P(R))
EXAMPLE 2:
Number of Ripe
Probability (P(R))
Bananas

0 0.125

1 0.375

2 0.375

3 0.125
 0.4

0.3
Probability

0.2
P(R)

0.1

0
0 1 2 3
R
EXAMPLE 3:
Determine whether or not the formula below describes
a probability distribution
P(x)=
 
, where X= 0, 1, 3, If it is, find the following:

1. P(X = 3)
2. P(X ≥ 1)
3. P(X ≤ 1)
PROPERTIES OF A DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

1)Each probability value is less than or

equal to one, but greater than or equal
to zero
2) The sum of all probabilities is
equal to one
• In symbol we have
P(x) ≥ 0 for all values of
x
p(x) = 1
80
EXAMPLE 4
Determine whether or not the distribution represents a
probability distribution. If it does not, explain why.
X 2 4 6 8
P(X) 1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4
Y 0 1 3 5
P(Y) 1/3 1/6 1/3 1/4
Z 3 6 9
P(Z) 0.65 -0.15 .50
TRY THIS!
A random variable X has a probability mass function given
by:
X 0 1 2 3
P(X) .1 .2 ? .4
a. Determine P(X=2).
b. Find P(X<2)
c. Find P(X≥3)
d. Construct the probability histogram of X.
 MEAN OF A
DISCRETE RANDOM
VARIABLE
LEARNING TARGETS:

At the end of the lesson, the students shall be able to:

- solve the mean of a discrete random variable.

MEAN OF A DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE

-the mean µ of a discrete variable is the central value

or average of its corresponding probability mass
function. Also known as expected value.
It is computed using the formula:
µ = ∑[X*P(X)]
where: µ= mean
X= value of the random variable
P(X) = the probability value of the random variable
EXAMPLE 1:

Suppose three coins are tossed. Let Y be the

random variable representing the number of tails
that occur. Find the values of the random
variable Y.
-Recall the previous table that we have answered.
EXAMPLE 1:
X P(X)

0 1/8

1 3/8

2 3/8

3 1/8
EXAMPLE 1:
X P(X) X * P(X)

0 1/8 0

1 3/8 3/8

2 3/8 6/8

3 1/8 3/8
MEAN OF A DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE

µ = ∑[X*P(X)]

µ = [0*(1/8)] + [1* (3/8)] + [2*(3/8)] + [3*(1/8)]

µ = [ 0 + (3/8) + (6/8) + (3/8)]

µ = 1.5
INTERPRETATION:

The mean of the distribution is 1.5. This means

that the average number of tails that will
appear in a single toss of three coins is either
one or two.
EXAMPLE 2:

A card is drawn from a deck of 20 cards (i.e., all cards

numbered 1 to 5 in a standard deck) and the random
variable W gives the number on the card. Construct its
corresponding histogram.
EXAMPLE 2:
Associated
Outcome In symbols Probability
Value
 
Number 1 1 P(W=1)

P(W=2)  
Number 2 2

P(W=3)  
Number 3 3

P(W=4)  
Number 4 4

P(W=5)  
Number 5 5
EXAMPLE 2:
Probability
Outcome W W* P(W)
P(W)
1 1/5 1/5
2 1/5 2/5
3 1/5 3/5
4 1/5 4/5
5 1/5 1
THEREFORE,

◼µ = ? ◼µ = 3
 TRY THIS!
Outcome Probability P(X)
2 0.042
3 0.010
4 0.021
5 0.375
6 0.188
7 0.344
8 0.021
LEARNING TARGETS:

At the end of the lesson, the students shall be able to:

- solve the variance and standard deviation of a

discrete random variable.
 VARIANCE AND
STANDARD DEVIATION
OF A DISCRETE
RANDOM VARIABLE
APPLIED PROBLEMS INVOLVING THE MEAN AND
VARIANCE OF A DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

 The mean or expected value of a probability distribution tells the value of

a random variable that we expect to get if the experiment is done
repeatedly.

The standard deviation of a probability distribution indicates how far, on

the average, is an observed value of a random variable X from its mean.
The smaller the standard deviation, the more likely that an observed value
of the random variable will be closed to the mean.
VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION OF A
DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE

The variance and standard deviation are two

values that describe how scattered or how
spread out the scores are form the mean value
of the random variable.
σ2 = ∑[X2*P(X)] - µ2 σ = √{∑[X2*P(X)] - µ2 }
 VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION OF A
DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE

σ2 = ∑[X2*P(X)] - µ2 σ = √{∑[X2*P(X)] - µ2 }
Where:
µ= mean
X= value of the random variable
P(X) = the probability value of the random variable
σ2 = variance
σ = standard deviation
Determines the homogeneity or heterogeneity of a distribution
Deviation - different from what is usual or expected
Variability can also be defined in terms of how close the scores in the distribution are to the middle of the
distribution. Using the mean as the measure of the middle of the distribution, the variance is defined as the
average squared difference of the scores from the mean.
EXAMPLE 1:
FIND THE VARIANCE AND THE STANDARD DEVIATION OF THE
DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE X WITH THE FFG. PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION

X P(X)
2 1/4
1 1/2
0 1/4
STEPS:

STEP 1: FIND THE MEAN

STEP 2: (X)2 THEN MULTIPLY P(X)

EXAMPLE 1:

X P(X) X*P(X) X2 X2*P(X)

2 1/4 1/2 4 1

1 1/2 1/2 1 1/2

0 1/4 0 0 0
STEPS:

STEP 1: FIND THE MEAN

STEP 2: (X)2 THEN MULTIPLY P(X)

STEP 3: FIND THE σ2 AND σ BY
APPLYING THE FORMULA
VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION OF A
DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE

σ2 = ∑[X2*P(X)] - µ2 σ = √{∑[X2*P(X)] - µ2 }
Where:
µ= mean
X= value of the random variable
P(X) = the probability value of the random variable
σ2 = variance
σ = standard deviation
 Example 1
The following data show the probability distribution
of the number of computers sold daily in a computer
shop during the past several months.
X P(X) X∙ P ( X ) X2 X2 ∙ P ( X )
0 0.10 0.00 0 0.00
1 0.20 0.20 1 0.20
2 0.45 0.90 4 1.80
3 0.15 0.45 9 1.35
4 0.05 0.20 16 0.80
5 0.05 0.25 25 1.25

Questions:
1. What is the probability that on a given day ----
a) fewer than three computers will be sold?
b) at most, two computers will be sold?
c) at least, four computers will be sold?
d) Exactly three computers will be sold?
2. Compute the mean and standard deviation and interpret 110

the values.
Solution:
1) a) to find the probability that fewer than three computers will be sold, use X = 0, 1,
and 2
P ( X < 3 ) = P ( 0 ) + P ( 1 ) + P ( 2 ) = 0.10 + 0.20 + 0.45 = 0.75

b) to find the probability that at most two computers will be sold, use X = 0, 1, and 2
P ( X ≤ 2 ) = P ( 0 ) + P ( 1 ) + P ( 2 ) = 0.10 + 0.20 + 0.45 = 0.75

c) to find the probability that at least four computers will be sold, use X = 4 and 5
P ( X ≥ 4 ) = P ( 4 ) + P ( 5 ) = 0.05 + 0.05 = 0.10

111
2. Themean of the probability distribution is computed as follows:
µ = ∑ [ X ∙ P ( X ) ] = 2.00
Interpretation: The mean of the probability distribution is 2. This implies
That in the long run, we expect that the average number of computers
that will be sold on a given day will be two.

3. The standard deviation is 1.18

Interpretation: The standard deviation of the probability distribution is
1.18. This implies that on the average, the number of computers sold
is 1.18 units from the mean 2

112
TRY THIS!
X P(X)

2 0.4

4 0.1

6 0.1

8 0.4
 x P(x) x (Px) x2 X2(Px)

2 0.4 0.8 4 1.6

0.1 0.4
4 16 1.6

6 0.1 0.6 36
3.6

8 0.4 3.2 25.6

64
VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION OF A
DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE

σ2 = ∑[X2*P(X)] - µ2 σ = √{∑[X2*P(X)] - µ2 }
Application of Discrete
Random Variables

EXPECTED
VALUE
EXPECTED VALUE
- also known as “expectation or
payoff value”, is the mean of the
probability distribution of the given
random variable.

µ = E(X) = ∑[X*P(X)]
What is Expected Value? The Expected Value (EV)
is the Predicted Value for using at any point in the
future. This value is also known as expectation,
the average, the mean or the first moment. This is
mainly used in statistics and probability analysis.
EXAMPLE 1:

Suppose that in a day, the probability of a car agent’s not

closing any deal is .35. On the other hand, the probability
that he/she can close one deal is .3; two deals, .25; and three
deals, .1. Find the agent’s expected number of closed deals
in a day.
 EXAMPLE 2
Suppose you join a raffle event that will cost you
a ticket worth ₱200 for a chance to win a grand
prize of ₱10,000. You know that there are 500
tickets sold for the event. What will be your
expected value of winning?

Gain (X) ₱9,800 -₱200

   
P(X)
 EXAMPLE 2: SOLUTION

Gain (X) ₱9,800 -₱200

   
P(X)

   
E(X)= +
= 19.6 + (-199.6)
= -180
 EXAMPLE 3

A card is drawn form a deck of 5 cards consisting

of cards numbered 1 to 5. A player wins ₱100 if the
number on the card is even and loses ₱100 if the
number of the card is odd. What is the expected
value of his winning?

Gain (X) ₱100 -₱100

   
P(X)
 EXAMPLE 3: SOLUTION

Gain (X) ₱100 -₱100

   
P(X)

   
E(X)= +
= 40 + (-60)
= -20