Probability Theory

Week 2
Introduction to Probability Theory
(Part 2)
COUNTING TECHNIQUES
Learning Outcomes :

• LO1: Describe the basic concepts of probability

• LO2: Interpret the results of statistical calculation
• LO3: Analyze data using probability theory
 Conditional Probability
The probability that event A occurs conditional on
event B having occurred is written
P(A|B)
The conditional probability of event A conditional on
event B is

for P(B) > 0. It measures the probability that event A

occurs when it is known that
event B occurs.
Conditional Probability
 Conditional Probability
The event conditioned on can be represented as a combination
of events. For example, P(A|B ∪ C)
represents the probability of event A conditional on the event
B ∪ C, that is conditional on either event B or C occurring. It
can be calculated from the formula
 Probabilities of Event
Intersections
 General Multiplication Law
It follows from the definition of the conditional probability
P(A|B) that the probability of the intersection of two events
A ∩ B can be calculated as
 Probabilities of Event
Intersections
More generally, since

The probability of the intersection of three events can be

calculated as

The probability of the intersection of a series of events A1,…,

An can be calculated from the expression
 Probabilities of Event
Intersections
 Independent Events
Two events A and B are said to be independent events if
P(B|A) = P(B) P(A|B) = P(A)
 Probabilities of Event
Intersections
 Intersections of Independent Events
The probability of the intersection of a series of
independent events A1, . . . , An is simply given by

P(A1 ∩. . .∩ An) = P(A1) P(A2). . .P(An)

 Probabilities of Event
Intersections
 Probability Trees
 Posterior Probabilities
 Law of Total Probability

If A1, . . . , An is a partition of a sample space, then the

probability of an event B can be obtained from the probabilities
P(Ai ) and P(B|Ai ) using the formula
P(B) = P(A1) P(B|A1) + ・・・ + P(An) P(B|An)
 Posterior Probabilities
 Bayes ‘ Theorem
If A1, . . . , An is a partition of a sample space, then the
posterior probabilities of the events Ai conditional on an event B
can be obtained from the probabilities P(Ai ) and
P(B|Ai ) using the formula
 Posterior Probabilities
 Permutations
A permutation of k objects from n objects (n ≥ k) is an
ordered sequence of k objects selected without
replacement from the group of n objects. The number of
possible permutations of k objects from n objects is
 Posterior Probabilities
 Combinations
A combination of k objects from n objects (n ≥ k) is an
unordered collection of k objects selected without
replacement from the group of n objects. The number of
possible combinations of k objects from n objects is
 Posterior Probabilities
EXAMPLE
Suppose that in the taste test, each participant samples
eight products and is asked to select the three best
products, but not in any particular order. The number of
possible answers to the test is then
 EXERCISE
1. A class had two sections. Section I had 55 students of whom 10 received
A grades. Section II had 45 students of whom 11 received A grades. Now
1 of the 100 students is chosen at random, with each being equally likely
to be chosen.
(a) What is the probability that the student was in section I?
(b) What is the probability that the student received an A grade?
(c) What is the probability that the student received an A grade if the
student is known to have been in section I?
(d) What is the probability that the student was in section I if the
student is known to have received an A grade?
2. An advertising campaign is canceled before launch with
probability 0.10, in which case the marketing company is fired
with probability 0.74; is launched but canceled early with
probability 0.18, in which case the marketing company is fired
with probability 0.43; is launched and runs its targeted length
with probability 0.43, in which case the marketing company is
fired with probability 0.16; and is launched and is extended
beyond its targeted length with probability 0.29, in which case
the marketing company is fired with probability 0.01. What is
the probability that the marketing company is fired? If the
marketing company is fired, what is the probability that the
advertising campaign was not canceled before launch?
 Refferences
Hayter, Anthony.J, (2012), Probabilty and Statistics
for Engineers and Scientiest 4th edition,Cengage
Learning, Chapter 1
Thank You