Distribution System Load Forecasting

Module-3
Distribution System Load

Forecasting
A. K. Mishra
IOE, Nepal
AKM/Distribution System Load-

02/07/21 forecasting 1
Forecast & Prediction
 Prediction:
 is generally a statement or a guess of something which
will happen regardless of whether the people want it or
not
 is something beyond ones control,
 e.g. one might predict rain or bad weather.
 Forecasting:
 is a statement of what will happen if certain conditions
or trends continue
 assumes that the causes of the events are under human
control.
 Thus, if the forecast is undesirable it is within ones ability
to change it.
 In case of Load Forcasting: “Trend”, in above have
in general two meaning, the load characteristics &
load growth.
 In power system Load Forecasting may be divided into:
 Short range Forecasting
 Long range Forecasting
Short range Forecasting
(e.g. one hour/day week ahead forecasting)
 Important for day to day power system operation e.g.
 load scheduling,
 optimal power flow,
 load shedding,
 power frequency and tie-line power control etc.
 Need to consider the load discontinuities e.g. weather and
temperature variation etc.
Long range Forecasting
 Important for system planning prospective
 i.e. important is annual peak demand and energy sell
 Minor discontinues are ignored

 For a power system engineers its essential to
forecast accurately both the power and energy
 Accurate power
 it is desirable to estimate the magnitude and location
of loads correctly.
 System apparatus of the most economic size can be
constructed at
 the correct place and right time
 to achieve their maximum utilization
 Accurate energy
 If the forecast is too conservative, there is every
likelihood of the capacity falling short of actual
demand.
 If the forecast is too optimistic it may result part of
investment not giving immediate return.
Two General methods for load forecast:
1. Trending method
 In order to develop a model for predicting future values. The
Trending method analysis uses only the time series history
of the variable being forecasted,
 Usually applicable to large area E.g. next 20 years demand
forecast for Nepal.
 If applied for small area then may be applicable for average
demand of just a particular class of consumer.
2. Simulation method.
 Bottom up approach
 The various factors that can affect the demand (e.g.

consumers settlement, their socio-economic background and
demand characteristics) are taken into account.
 Accurate for small area forecast

Trending Methods
 First formulate an expression based on historical
trend
 Then the future demand are calculated based on
that.
 Also called curve fitting method
 is basically a method that forecast the quantity to be
forecasted using the past values of same quantity
 The fitting of continuous mathematical functions
through actual data to achieve the least overall error,
known as regression analysis.
Most commonly used mathematical
expressions are:
 Polynomial (linear, quadratic, cubic etc)
A  Bt  Ct 2
 Exponential (In terms of Average load growth)

A(1  B ) t
 Power

At
 Z-transfer function
 AI mainly ANN
 The most common techniques used to fit these
expressions is to use a least square error method.
 A Least Square Error Method:
 Let’s consider a general expression of equation
y= F(x) = c0 f 0 ( x)  c1 f 1 ( x)  ..........  c k f k ( x)
 A set of known samples of fk(xi) (for i = 0….q)

and their corresponding functional value of yi.
 the coefficients cj (for j = 0,1……k) are to be
known
A Least square error method
If y is measured quantity corresponding to x
y=FC
Then, for an approximated value of C error
ye = y - F C
In least square error approximation method we intend to
minimize the square of the error, i.e.
ye2 = J = (y - F C ) T * (y- F C)
Or J = yTy – CTFTy-yT F C + CTFTF C

dJ
For J (square of the error) to be minimum, 0
dx
Differentiating with respect to C and equating to zero gives
0 = -FTy –FTy + 2FT F C
Or 0 = -2 FTy + 2 FTF C
Or C = [FTF]-1 FT y
C = M-1 N
Gives
M =FTF and N = FT y
Consider a planner who has annual peak load data on each of his
company’s substations, going back for past ten years.
He wants to forecast future loads by trending, ( Finding a polynomial

equation, that fits each substation area’s historical load data and then extra
plotting that equation to project into future.)
There are wide number of polynomials that he could use for the
curve fit. Suppose the polynomial is defined by;
L(t) = a3t 3  a 2 t 2  a1t 1  a 0

Where; L(t) annual peak load for year t and ai are real coefficients
 For Known samples of L(t) corresponding to known t, The

above equation can be elaborated as:
L(1) = a3 (1) 3  a 2 (1) 2  a1 (1)1  a 0
L(2) = a3 (2) 3  a 2 (2) 2  a1 (2)1  a 0

------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------
L(n) = a3 (n) 3  a 2 (n) 2  a1 (n)1  a 0
 L(1)   1 1 1 1
 L ( 2)   8  a3 
   4 2 1 a 
Or  L(3)  =  27 9 3 1  2
     a1 
     
 L(n) (n) 3 a0 
( n) 2 ( n) 1
i.e. L = PA

Pre multiplying both sides by PT;
PT L = PTPA
Or A = [PTP]-1 * PT L
Thus coefficients an can be obtained for any set of known

value of t and corresponding L(t) and hence can be used to
extend the polynomial for any future t;
Suppose we have a data for past five (1:4 yrs) years as;
L= [100 210 280 400] MW,
We can get the 2nd order polynomial coefficients;
A= [17.5 84.5 2.5] corss[a0 a1 a2]

And if we like to extrapolate these curve for next five year
we can get the result as shown in figure
Red actual data
1000
900
800
700
600
LOAD
500
400
300
200
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Time
 Above Figure shows the 4 year historical data ( Red) and next 6 year
forecasted data.
Simplified MATLAB Application
(if the curve is represented by polynomial)
If we use MATLAB programming only two command is sufficient
1. p = polyfit(x,y,n)
Finds the coefficients of a polynomial p(x) of degree n that fits the data,
p(x(i)) to y(i), in a least squares sense. The result p is a row vector of
length n+1 containing the polynomial coefficients in descending powers:
2. y = polyval(p,x)
Returns the value of the polynomial p evaluated at x.
Example: The polynomial
p( x )  3 x 2  2 x  1
is evaluated at x = 5, 7, and 9 with
p = [3 2 1];
polyval(p,[5 7 9])
results in 86 162 262 Ans.
What order of polynomial ?
 A least square error fit can give minimum possible
error (best fit) irrespective of the polynomial order.
 Though High order polynomial can fit the curve
exactly, need not necessarily give accurate
forecast.
 Experience has shown that up to third order can
give a fare degree of accuracy. Though best order
could differ depending on sample data available.
 Let’s consider a result.

Suppose we have a data for past six (1:6yrs) years as;
L =[100 210 280 400 520 640]
A 4th order Fit results
Red actual data
1000
500
-500
-1000
LO A D
-1500
-2000
-2500
-3000
-3500
-4000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Time
Fitting of curves other than polynomial
 The basic principle is same.
 Only difference could be the definition of F (x)
 Sometimes rearrangement in curves may be required to
convert in suitable format.
Exponential
L  A(1  B ) t
LogL  log A  t * Log (1  B )

Comparing with Original Equation
y  LogL
f 0 (x)  1 & f1 (x)  t
Also
C 0  log A & C1  log(1  B)
A  exp(C0 )
B  exp(C1 )  1
Power

L  At
LogL  log A   * Logt
Comparing with Original Equation
y  LogL
f 0 (x)  1 & f1 (x)  Logt
Also
C 0  log A & C1  
A  exp(C0 )
Which curve is best ?
 Experience shows that in case of Exponential fit (In
terms of Average load growth) chances of error is
minimum.
 But the method assumes a uniform average annual
load growth
 In practice, usually as we move towards smaller and
smaller area:
 the demand gets saturated after some year
 growth reduces with respect to some initial year
 Power fitting has almost the same trend as for the
exponential.
 Polynomial fitting can take account of load
growth saturation if fitted with care.
 However all the trending methods
 assumes that the growth in demand is mainly due to
consumption growth only.
 Growth due to public migration etc ignored.
 Also do not take care of local customer characteristics (i.e.
consumer class statistics and their socio economic status.
 As each of these small areas, may have
 their unique settlements
 having different socioeconomic status.
 i.e. different small area may have different composition of
consumer classes.
 Hence Trending methods usually not do well when
applied to small area forecasting
 Could be used for predicting the load growth behavior of
a particular class of consumers for small area.
Simulation Method
 Simulation method take the account for both
 the customer demand characteristics
 and also the advantage of trending method
 In simulation method the demand or energy for

each year is forecasted in the same way as the
demand or energy is computed for a group of
consumers from their characteristics
 The major difference is number of customers and
their energy uses pattern vary year to year.
 That is forecasting is mainly done for effective
number of customers number and consumption of
nth year.
Consumption and customers number
vary year to year because of:
a. The Load Growth Factor Includes:
• Customer consumption Growth (per annum): increase in
average consumption per customer per annum in each
market sector.
• It reflects increasing use of electricity over time, including
additional appliances, the introduction of electricity for
space heating, etc.
b. Consumption Growth Patterns
• As the consumption growth occurs the growth in energy
and demand is not in same ratio, usually growth in peak
load demands lags in comparison to growth in energy
demand
• This modifies the load pattern and also the load factor
(usually increases) with years.
c. Population Growth (per annum):
This increase is applied to the projected
number of domestic, commercial and
public sector customers each year.
b. The Electrification Ratio (Coverage

Factor)
This factor reflects the increase in load as
the electrical network is extended. This
also reflects the forecast as the customers’
waiting for connection is met.
The input data required for forecast using simulation
method would be :
a. The base consumer numbers for each consumer
classes
b. The electrification coverage for each customer class
over the planning horizon.
c. Population growth factor.
d. Base consumption per customers either in terms of
energy or connected demand
e. The Load Growth Factor for each customer class over
the planning horizon.
f. Modifications in Load patterns for each customer class
over the planning horizon.
g. If load pattern variation is not available then at least
L.F. variation if consumption is in terms of energy and
coincidence factor for connected demand category.
Inclusion of these factors define effective consumers,
estimated peak demand for nth year.
No. of effective consumers (nth yr) =

No. of base consumers* cumulative population growth
factor (nth yr) *electrification ratio (nth yr);
Avg. monthly consumption (kWh) for nth yr. =

Avg. monthly consumption (kWh) * cumulative
consumption growth factor (nth yr)

Step-1 The Peak demand for any consumer class can be
calculated as:
1. For that consumer class the data for Avg. energy
consumption is available:
 Peak Demand (in kW) =
No of effective consumers Monthly consumption (kWh/consumer)

 coincedancefact.
Daily load factor  Number of effective days per month  24
2. For that consumer class the data for connected load

is available:
Peak demand (kW) =
No. of effective Consumers * estimated demand (kW/ Consumer.) 
coincedancefact.
Step-2 Using the above peak demand and load pattern the
load curve for each class can be obtained
Step-3 If we are interested in Peak kVA rather than Peak kW;

Peak demand (kVA.) = Peak demand (kW)/expected power
factor of that class.
The daily load curves (kVA versus time and kW versus time)
for each consumer class obtained above can be used to get
commutative daily load curves.
From the combined (cumulative) daily load curves obtained

above the peak demand for the projected year is maximum
kVA under the load curve of kVA verses time. Similarly the
maximum load will be maximum kW under the load curve of
kw versus time.
Annual Energy Sells (kWhr)
The yearly energy sales for a particular load center in a

specified year are calculated as:
1. For that consumer class the data for Avg. energy

consumption is available:
No. of effective consumers (nth yr) of that class* consumption
per month (n yr) * 12.
2. For that consumer class the data for connected load

is available:
No. of effective consumers (nth yr) *Average peak demand for
that type of consumers (nth yr) * daily load factor form load
pattern* No of effective days per year consumers.*24
Losses Evaluation:
With the above steps, fairly accurate load forecast
process becomes comprehensive. The other factors
which must be included to totally complete it are
Losses
 The inclusion of loss may be done by calculating the

approximate loss or by assuming a fixed percentage.
 Knowing the approximate feeder lengths of each LT
feeder and assuming uniformly distributed or uniformly
varying load along the feeder approximate peak power
loss (kW) can be calculated.
 This has much better accuracy during the planning in
comparison to assumption of fixed percentage loss.
 If require, the annual energy loss can thus be calculated
by multiplying this with annual LLF factor to 8760.

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Module-3

Distribution System Load

AKM/Distribution System Load-

 i.e. important is annual peak demand and energy sell

 Minor discontinues are ignored

AKM/Distribution System Load-

 The various factors that can affect the demand (e.g.

AKM/Distribution System Load-

 Exponential (In terms of Average load growth)

 A set of known samples of fk(xi) (for i = 0….q)

AKM/Distribution System Load-

He wants to forecast future loads by trending, ( Finding a polynomial

L(t) = a3t 3  a 2 t 2  a1t 1  a 0

 For Known samples of L(t) corresponding to known t, The

L(2) = a3 (2) 3  a 2 (2) 2  a1 (2)1  a 0

AKM/Distribution System Load-

Thus coefficients an can be obtained for any set of known

A= [17.5 84.5 2.5] corss[a0 a1 a2]

AKM/Distribution System Load-

LogL  log A  t * Log (1  B )

AKM/Distribution System Load-

 In simulation method the demand or energy for

b. The Electrification Ratio (Coverage

No. of effective consumers (nth yr) =

Avg. monthly consumption (kWh) for nth yr. =

AKM/Distribution System Load-

No of effective consumers Monthly consumption (kWh/consumer)

2. For that consumer class the data for connected load

Step-3 If we are interested in Peak kVA rather than Peak kW;

From the combined (cumulative) daily load curves obtained

The yearly energy sales for a particular load center in a

1. For that consumer class the data for Avg. energy

2. For that consumer class the data for connected load

 The inclusion of loss may be done by calculating the

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