Global warming effect on Biodiversity

• Understanding and modeling the effect of global warming on biodiversity is

vital for policy makers and general public
• To tackle the effect of global warming two approaches are necessary
1. Long-term action → Reduce green-house gas emissions
2. Short-term action → design vital natural reserves
• Fossil evidence and genetic & ecological study has limitation to accurately
estimate the extinction biodiversity.
• Effect of global warming on biodiversity can be forecasted using four methods
1. models that consider species individually
2. niche-theory models that group species by habitat
3. General circulation models and coupled ocean–atmosphere–biosphere models
4. species–area curve models that consider all species or large aggregates of species.
 Global warming effect on Biodiversity
• The authors has identified several key points in forecasting effect of global
warming on biodiversity
 Accurate definition of biodiversity is needed with great emphasis placed on DNA analysis
to determine genetically distinct units.
 Validation of models for substantially prove the effect of global warming on biodiversity.
 Develop a forecast that clearly integrate the environmental catastrophe and man-made ,
such as wild life trade, war, pollution, distraction of natural habitat, introducing invasive
species, and etc., effect on biodiversity.
 Accurate and representative data collection and analysis for policy making.
 Use of biodiversity preservation mechanism from quaternary fossil record to bridge
discrepancy between past few-extinction record and present large scale forecasted
extinction.
 Global warming effect on Biodiversity
• The authors has identified several key points in forecasting effect of global
warming on biodiversity
 Improve widely used models such as
 Models of individuals: use individual as unit with fixed characteristics and forecast population & species
as sum of individuals.
Niche-theory models: use species and population as fixed characteristics to measure the environmental
variables that effect distribution of species.
 Improved ecological principle embedded in general atmosphere-ocean-biotic coupled
circulation model. This circulation models take parameters such as influence of vegetation
on climate via albedo, surface roughness, water evaporation, exchange of green house gases
and aerosol. This relates the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration and climate change.
 Better model to forecast total biodiversity from area covered by species.
 Summary
• Lewis
  Binford (1968) point out that one key factor for human civilization and agricultural
development was sea level rise.
• Over past 200,000 years the global sea level has risen by 120 meters resulted in migrated shore
lines, separated continental mass to form islands, and ancient people resort to conflict and rising
tension between neighboring community.
• Currently, several hundred million people are living in costal area with sea level less than a
meter which pose treat to future flooding.
• The climate record indicate that the carbon concentration level in the atmosphere, which closely
related to increasing in the global temperature, has risen to level not seen in last two million
years.
• As a result of global warming, the sea levels are expected to rise between in century.
• Impact of human activity on oceans and cost lines has resulted in melting glaciers, warming
seas, rising sea, and collapsing marine ecosystem.
 Summary
• Governments, environmental groups, insurance-companies, and non-governmental organization
are investing billions to predict the global warming effect on ecosystem and communities, and
mitigating the economic damage and cultural disruption caused by rising sea levels, intensified
storm cycles, and marine erosion.
• Little attention has been given to global warming induced damage on coastal historical and
archeological sites. Such loss add up to crisis of human history as more archeological records,
excavations, and dates are loss to coast line erosion.
• Close to nothing has been done by lawmakers and governments to protect sites and combat
global warming effect due to two reasons:
 the size of the problem is already overwhelming if the agency responsible subject to budget cut and limited
resource.
 miss guided belief that coastal erosions are natural process that requires no mitigation except under
extraordinary circumstances.
• Human activity such as damming of rivers, sand mining, ship traffic, and etc. has accelerates
the level of erosion and loss of such sites.
 Summary
• The loss has destroyed information on how the past generation has survived huge devastation
and ways of handling sea level rise. As a results, current scientific community has little data to
develop comprehensive models to predict future devastation and warn policy-makers.
• A global discussion, collaboration, and effort is required to tackle the effect of global warming.
 Summary
• The
  severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 or SARS-CoV-2 has lead to travel
restriction that resulted in reduced GHG emission and air pollution as observed from satellite
data and ground-based observation.
• The data from Google and Apple is used to model and analyze emission trend during covid-19
locked-down. This include estimation of emission change from the mobility data.
• The Google mobility data from 114 countries indicate that population are under mobility
restriction which contributed to overall surface-transport emission change.
• Industrial, public, and residential sector emission change has also been observed from Google
residential, retail, and workplace movement data.
• Mobility data outside of surface-transport over estimates the emission. Specially industrial
emission is not correlated to mobility, due to automation of production line, baseline emission
of industries in absence of production, and alternative mode of work.
• The residential emission increment resulted from occupied vacant houses while at same time
energy consumption has increased.
Population-weighted histogram of surface-transport trends Violin plots of the distribution, minimum,
maximum and median levels of national trends
weighted by CO2 emissions

 Estimates of emission changes for the datasets across four sectors

for April 2020 and the sum of the four sectors.
 Summary
•• The
  fossil fuel CO2 emission from surface transport, residential, power, industry, public and
aviation sectors from 123 countries has been assessed using a baseline from:
 Countries climate action named nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by 2030. The
pathway accounts for both GHG and air pollution change.
• Change from such scenario are derived from three-stage process
1. 5-week Google mobility data used as reference.
2. The absolute emission is evaluated by multiplying this fractional change by the 2019 or
previous 2015 study data.
3. The absolute changes are then applied to steadily rising emission pathway before Covid-19.
• During the national lockdown the and emission peak showed reduction as much as driven by
surface –transport emission. Conversely, organic carbon emission has increased from residential
emission. Methane emission from power sector and emissio from industries has declined.
• Estimation of is challenging as has long atmospheric life time and different individual observation
don’t reflect global burden.