DEGREES OF

LIKELIHOOD
Instead of thinking of truth and falsehood in black –
and – white terms, we can think in terms of a SCALE
OF LIKELIHOOD. The extremes of the scale are
IMPOSSIBILITY and CERTAINTY; other, intermediate
concepts to be considered are POSSIBILITY,
PROBABILITY, IMPROBABILITY.
a. Most importantly, by modal auxiliaries (CAN, MAY,
MUST, etc.): YOU MAY BE RIGHT
b. More <formally>, by a sentence with introductory
IT and a THAT-CLAUSE: IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
YOU ARE RIGHT
c. By an adverbial such as NECESSARILY,
PERHAPS, PROBABLY: PERHAPS YOU’RE
RIGHT
We shall give special attention, where necessary, to the use of auxiliaries
in negative sentences, in questions, in reference to past time, and in
hypothetical clauses.
Aux (CAN, MAY, MUST) can refer to the future as well as to the present

POSSIBILITY
Can, may, could, might
(A) POSSIBILITY OF THE FACT (factual)
• The railways MAY be improved
• IT IS POSSIBLE THAT the railways will be improved
• PERHAPS/POSSIBLY/MAYBE the railways will be improved
(B) POSSIBILITY OF THE IDEA (theoretical)
• The railways CAN be improved
• IT IS POSSIBLE FOR the railways to be improved

Lightning CAN be dangerous

Lightning is SOMETIMES dangerous
NEGATION: for impossibility, use CANNOT or CAN’T
<informal> (but not MAY NOT):

• He can’t be working at this time! (it is impossible that he is

working….)
• HE MAY NOT BE WORKING, means ‘It is possible that
he is not working’

QUESTIONS: use CAN (not may)

• CAN HE BE WORKING? Means ‘Is it possible that he is
working?’
PAST TIME: for something which was possible in the past,
use COULD:
• In those days, a man could be sentenced to death for a
small crime.

For the (present) possibility of a past happening, use MAY +

the perfect:
• WE MAY HAVE MADE A MISTAKE, means ‘It is possible
that we (have) made a mistake’.

HYPOTHETICAL: for hypothetical possibility, use COULD or

MIGHT:
• If someone were to make a mistake, the whole plan
COULD/MIGHT be ruined
TENTATIVE POSSIBILITY (COULD, MIGHT)
Could and might in their hypothetical sense are often used to
express <tentative> possibility, to talk of something which is
possible, but unlikely:
- He COULD/MIGHT be telling lies (it is just possible that he is
telling lies)
- COULD you have left your purse on the bus? (Is it just
possible….)
Ability (can, be able to, etc)

The notion of ‘ability’, also expressed by CAN, is closely

related to that of ‘theoretical possibility’:
• He CAN speak English fluently
• Will you BE ABLE TO meet us in London tomorrow?
• He IS CAPABLE OF keeping a secret when he wants to
• She KNOWS HOW TO type and take shorthand.

NEGATION: for inability, use CAN’T (or BE UNABLE TO, or

BE INCAPABILITY OF):
• He CAN’T speak German very well.

QUESTIONS: CAN you drive a car?

PAST TIME: COULD usually means ‘knew how to’; it refers
to a permanent or habitual ability:
He COULD play the piano when he was five

WAS/WERE ABLE TO often combines the ideas of ‘ability’

and ‘achievement’:
By acting quickly, we WERE ABLE TO save him from
drowning, means: We COULD and DID save him

HYPOTHETICAL:
I’m so hungry, I could eat a horse!
Certainty or logical necessity (MUST, HAVE To, etc)
MUST + infinitive and have+to-infinitive (or, <esp in BrE>,
have got to) can express certainty or logical necessity:
• There MUST be some mistake
• You HAVE TO be joking! <esp AmE)
• IT IS CERTAIN THAT the bombing will stop soon
The contrasting relation between possibility and certainty
can be seen in:
His father CAN’T still be alive
His father MUST be dead
It is impossible that his father is still alive
It is certain that his father is dead
Negatives and Questions

• DOES there HAVE TO be a motive for the crime?

• Is there NECESSARILY a motive for the crime?
• NEED there be a motive for the crime? <BrE>

Strikes DON’T HAVE TO be caused by bad pay

Strikes are NOT NECESSARILY caused by bad pay
Strikes NEED NOT BE caused by bad pay

The aux NEED is used <BrE>, in place of MUST in

questions and negatives
PAST TIME: we have to distinguish a past certainty (HAD
TO) from a certainty about the past (usually expressed by
MUST + the perfect):
• Someone HAD TO lose the game. (It was necessary, by
the rules of the game, for someone to lose)
• John MUST have missed his train (It is (almost) certain
that John missed his train)

HYPOTHETICAL: Use HAVE TO:

If God did not exist, someone WOULD HAVE TO invent
him. (it would be necessary for someone….)
Prediction and Predictability (WILL, MUST)

MUST often expresses a certainty about an event which we

do not observe, but about which we draw a conclusion from
evidence.

On hearing the phone ring, you might say: ‘That MUST be

my wife’ (I KNOW that she is due to phone at about this
time, and I therefore CONCLUDE that she is phoning now)

In a similar way, you can use WILL to express a

PREDICTION about the present, just as you can use WILL
to make a prediction about the future:
That WILL be my wife
There is little difference here between MUST and WILL:
• John WILL have arrived by NOW (also John WILL have arrived by
TOMORROW)

• John MUST have arrived by NOW (but not: John MUST have arrived
by TOMORROW)

This sort of prediction with WILL often occurs with conditional sentences:
If litmus paper is dipped in acid, it WILL turn red

WILL can also be used in a habitual sense, to express the idea of

‘predictability’ or ‘characteristic behavior’:
• Accidents WILL happen
• A lion WILL only attack a human being when it is hungry
Probability (OUGHT TO, SHOULD, etc)

The aux OUGHT TO and SHOULD can express

‘probability’, and can be regarded as weaker equivalents of
MUST (certainty). Compare:

• Our guests MUST be home by now (I am certain)

• Our guests OUGHT TO / SHOULD be home by now
(They probably are, but I’m not certain)

SHOULD is more frequent than OUGHT TO.

Other ways of expressing probability are:
• It is quite PROBABLE / LIKELY that they didn’t receive the letter.
• He is PROBABLY the best chess-player in the country.
• They have VERY LIKELY lost the way home.
• The concert IS LIKELY to finish late.

NEGATION: improbability can be expressed by SHOULDN’T,

OUGHTN’T TO, or IT IS IMPROBABLE / UNLIKELY THAT:
• There SHOULDN’T (OUGHTN’T TO) be any difficulties
• It IS UNLIKELY THAT there will be any difficulties

QUESTIONS (rare):
SHOULD there be any difficulty in getting tickets?