Stats Yr2 Chapter 2 :: Conditional

Probability
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Last modified: 15th November 2019

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Chapter Overview

1:: Set Notation

2:: Conditional Probability in Venn Diagrams
 How sets are used to  The notation means “the probability of
describe a sample given that happened”. How we can find such
space/event and how probabilities using a Venn Diagram.
notation like is used to
combine sets.

4:: Tree Diagrams

3:: Formula for Conditional Probability
“I have 3 red and 4 green balls in a
  𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) bag. I take one ball out the bag, keep
𝑃 ( 𝐴 |𝐵 ) =
𝑃 (𝐵 ) it, then take another. Given that the
second ball was green, determine the
probability the first was red.”

Teacher Notes: All of this is from the old S1. The chapter was
effectively split into two: all the non-conditional probability content
in Year 1 and the rest in Year 2. Set notation was not used in Year 1.
RECAP :: Using sets for sample spaces and events
In general, sets are used to represent collections of items. In probability, an event is a
set of one or more
A
  sample space is set of all possible outcomes. We Each number represents outcomes. These are the
use (Greek ‘Xi’), or sometimes just , to represent
an outcome. circles in the Venn Diagram.
this set. We use a rectangle in a Venn Diagram. We use capital letters for the
variables representing sets.
 “rolling an even number”
𝝃
  “rolling a prime number”

  𝑃
  𝐸
3
6 2
5
4
1
Combining events/sets
𝝃
 

𝑨
  𝑩 
 the whole sample
space (1 to 6)
3
4
1 even number on a
2 die thrown
6
5 prime number on a
die thrown

What does it mean in this context? What is the resulting

set of outcomes?
 
𝐴′  Not A (the “complement” of ).
?
i.e. Not rolling an even number.
 {1 , 3 ,5 }?

 
𝐴∪𝐵  A or B (the “union” of and ).
?
i.e. Rolling an even or prime number.
  ?}
{2,3,4,5,6

𝐴∩𝐵
   A and B (the “intersection” of and ).
?
i.e. Rolling a number which is even and {2}
  ?
prime.
Some fundamentals
𝝃
 

𝑨
  𝑩
 
 the whole sample
space (1 to 6)
3
4
1 even number on a
2 die thrown
6
5 prime number on a
die thrown

What does it mean in this What is the resulting set of

context? outcomes?
 
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′ “A and not B”. Rolling a number
?
which is even and not prime.  { 4,6 }?
 
( 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) ′ Rolling a number which is
?
not [even or prime].   {1 }?
′
 
( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) Rolling a number which is
?
not [even and prime]. {1,3,4,5,6
  }?
What area is indicated?

 
𝐴

𝐵
 
𝐶
 

 
𝜉  
𝐴∩
? 𝐵
What area is indicated?

 
𝐴

𝐵
 
𝐶
 

 
𝜉  
𝐴∪
? 𝐵
What area is indicated?

 
𝐴

𝐵
 
𝐶
 

 
𝜉  
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵∩
? 𝐶
What area is indicated?

 
𝐴

𝐵
 
𝐶
 

 
𝜉  
𝐴 ∩𝐶
? ′
What area is indicated?

 
𝐴

𝐵
 
𝐶
 

 
𝜉  
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵∩ 𝐶
? ′
What area is indicated?
 
𝜉  
𝐴

𝐵
 
𝐶
 

′ ′ ′ ′
 
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵? ∩ 𝐶 or
alternatively… ( 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵∪
 
? 𝐶)
What area is indicated?
 
𝜉  
𝐴

𝐵
 
𝐶
 

′
 
𝐴
?
What area is indicated?
 
𝜉  
𝐴

𝐵
 
𝐶
 

′
 
𝐴 ∩ ( 𝐵∩
? 𝐶)
What area is indicated?
 
𝜉  
𝐴

𝐵
 
𝐶
 

′
 
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵? ∩ 𝐶 ′
Examples
Venn Diagram can either contain:
(a) The specific outcomes in each set This will usually be stated or
made obvious from the context.
(b) The number of items in the set (i.e. frequencies)
(c) The probability of being in that set.

 [Textbook] A card is selected at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. Let

be the event that the card is an ace and the event that the card is a
diamond. Find:
a) b) c) d)

1
Think “A and D”.
 
?a
𝐴  𝐷  For union, I visualise this

𝑃 ( 𝐴∩𝐷 )=
‘figure-of-8’ shape:

? Venn
3 Diagram
1 12 ?b

52
36 ?c
?d
Examples
 [Textbook] Given that , and ,
a. Explain why events and are not independent.
Given also that , that events and are mutually exclusive and that events
and are independent,
b. Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate the events and , showing the
probabilities for each region.
c. Find

a  𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) × 𝑃 ( 𝐵 )=0.3 × 0.4=0.12 c  ′
? 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵? )=0.05
b
 𝐴 𝐵
  𝐶
 
0.07

0.05 0.25 ? 0.08 0.12

0.43
Test Your Understanding
May 2013 (R) Q6
 
(a) Using the above:

The Venn diagram in Figure 1 shows three events A,

B and C and the probabilities associated with each
region of B. The constants p, q and r each represent
probabilities associated with the three separate
regions outside B.
 
The events A and B are independent.
 
(a) Find the value of p. (3)
Exercise 2A
Pearson Stats/Mechanics Year 2
Pages 19-21
Conditional Probability
Think about how we formed a probability tree at GCSE:

 
P ? 𝐵
 
 
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩𝐵
? )
 𝑃 ( 𝐴 )  𝐴 Read the ‘|’ symbol
as “given that”. i.e.
𝐵  ′ “B occurred given
that A occurred”.
𝐵
 

 𝐴 ′

𝐵  ′
Alternatively (and more commonly):
Memory Tip: You’re
!
 
?
dividing by the event
you’re conditioning on.
Examples
a Determine
  the probability of:
1 The
  following two-way table shows
what foreign language students in Method 1: Using the formula:
Year 9 study.
is the event that the student is a
boy. is the event they chose
?
Method 2: Restricted sample space.
We’re finding the “probability they study
French given they’re not a boy”, i.e. we’re
French as their language.
choosing only from the non-boys:
Total
14 38 52 ?
26 22 48
Total 40 60 100 b ?
2 Using the Venn Diagram, determine: a  
Method 1: Using the formula
𝜉
 
𝐴
   
𝐵 ?
Method 2: Restricted sample space

2 3 Out of 6 things in , 2
 
6 ? are in .
4
b   ? c ?
Further Examples
a  Given that and , what is ? Fro Tip: The ‘restricted
sample space’ method also
works for Venn Diagrams
with probabilities.
?
Given that and , what is ?
b (Hint: Drawing a Venn Diagram will help!)

𝑋  𝑌 
Given that , and , what is ? ?
0.4 0.2

𝐴
  𝐵 
0.1 0.4 0.1
0.4
?
Check your understanding
 The events and are such that

Find

a) ?
b) ?
c)
?

𝜉
 
𝑬
  𝑭
 

Click to0.11
reveal0.17Venn0.48
Diagram

0.24
Further Practice (outside of class)
1  
Then:
?
?
2 and and
Then:
?

3 Then:

?
Further Test Your Understanding
May 2013 (R) Q6  (a) (From earlier)

(b)

?
 The Venn diagram in Figure 1 shows three events A, (c)
B and C and the probabilities associated with each
region of B. The constants p, q and r each represent
probabilities associated with the three separate
regions outside B.
?
 
The events A and B are independent.
 
(a) Find the value of p. (3)

Given that ,
(b) find the value of and the value of (4)
(c) Find (2)
Exercise 2C
Pearson Stats/Mechanics Year 2
Pages 25-27

Note: I have skipped Exercise 2B.

 Extension:
1 [Classic puzzle] I have 2 children. One of
them is a boy. What’s the probability
the other is a boy?
If (at least) one is a boy, restricted
sample space is BB, BG, GB. Of these,
?
only in one case is the other a boy.
 Full Laws of Probability
!  If events and are independent.

 P ?
?
 If events and are mutually exclusive:
  ?
?
In general: We first encountered this in
the previous section.

 P
? This is known as the Addition Law.
 Informal Proof: If we added the
probabilities in the and sets in the
Venn Diagram, we’d be double
P counting the intersection, so subtract
? so that it’s only counted once.
Example
Edexcel S1

 a) The set of all outcomes. ?

b) A set of one or more outcomes (that?is a subset of the sample space).
c)
d)
?
e) ?
?
Further Examples
Hints
  for (b): You saw the words
 [Textbook] and are two events such that , and . “are independent”. So write out .
Find: Also, you’re given which suggests
a. b. c. you might be able to use the
Addition Rule.

 
?a
?
?b
?c ?

?
Test Your Understanding
Edexcel S1
a)
 𝜉
 𝐴 𝐶
  𝐵
 

 
b) ?
c) ?
d)

?
SUPER IMPORTANT TIPS
If I were to identify two tips that will possible help you the most in
probability questions:

If you see the words ‘given that’, Immediately write out the law for conditional probability.

Example: “Given Bob walks to school, find the probability that he’s not late…”

 First thing you should write: ?

If you see the words ‘are independent’, Immediately write out the laws for independence.
(Even before you’ve finished reading the question!)

 Example: “ is independent from …”

 First thing you should write:

?
If you’re stuck on a question where you have to find a probability given others, it’s
probably because you’ve failed to take into account that two events are independent or
mutually exclusive, or you need to use the conditional probability or additional law.
Exercise 2D
Pearson Stats/Mechanics Year 2
Pages 29-30
Probability Trees
We saw probability trees in Year 1. The only difference here is determining a conditional
probability using your tree.

Example:
Example: You
You have
have two
two bags,
bags, the
the first
first with
with 55 red
red balls
balls and
and 55 blue
blue balls,
balls, and
and thethe second
second with
with 33
red
red balls
balls and
and 66 blue
blue balls.
balls. You
You first
first pick
pick aa ball
ball from
from the
the first
first bag,
bag, and
and place
place itit in
in the
the second.
second. You
You
then
then pick
pick aa ball
ball from
from the
the second
second bag.
bag. Complete
Complete the the tree
tree diagram.
diagram.

Hence
  find the probability that:

a) You pick a red ball on your second

  4 𝑅
  2 pick.
?
10
 1
?  𝑅1 ?
2
  6
?  𝐵 2 b) Given that your second pick was
10
  3
red, the first pick was also red.
?
10  𝑅2
 1 𝐵
  1
?
2
  7 𝐵
  2
?
10 ? It’s vitally important that
you use good notation,
Fro Tip: Use variable subscripting to indicate making use of the | symbol.
what pick you’re referring to.
 Further Example
Edexcel S1 May 2009 Q2
(Part (a) asks for a tree diagram, which may help with this question)

 
′
′ 𝑃 (?𝐹 ∩𝐿 )
𝑃 ( 𝐹 |𝐿 )=
𝑃 ( 𝐿)
 Testing Your Understanding
Edexcel S1

?
?
Exercise 2E
Pearson Stats/Mechanics Year 2
Pages 31-34