“Aviation – Current Energy Challenges”

A Fuel Producer’s Perspective

AIAA “Inside Aerospace”

An International Forum for REPLACE with Qatar

Aviation and Space Leaders fuelling truck Image!

11 -12 May 2010

Arlington, Virginia, USA

Joanna M Bauldreay

Aviation Fuels Development Manager

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OUTLINE

The Energy Challenge

 The global energy challenge
 Aviation demand and options
 European legislation and demand
Technical Challenges
 Certification and Qualification
 Fuel Readiness Levels
 Alternative Fuels
The Scale-Up Challenge – Pearl Case Study
Final Comments

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 THE ENERGY CHALLENGE

Global demand for energy will double by 2050

3 billion energy consumers will be added to the
world's population
These people would like access to electricity and
personal transport
Energy supply - from all sources - will struggle
to keep up with demand
There will be continued dependence on fossil
fuels, e.g. oil, gas & coal
We shall also need rapid growth in renewables &
nuclear
Environmental stresses from producing and using
energy are increasing
Climate change is chief amongst these but also
particulates and air quality issues

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 THE NEW ENERGY FUTURE

Producers of liquid fuels have a complicated balancing act with increasingly complex and
numerous demands to meet future energy needs in a cost effective, responsible manner.
See http://www.shell.com/home/content/environment_society/nef

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ENERGY DIVERSITY

Satisfying energy demand will take multiple resources

 Oil from conventional sources
 Oil from unconventional sources

Natural gas is cleanest fossil fuel and is abundant

 Liquefy – and use as methane at final destination
 Convert to liquid transport fuels, etc. by Gas to Liquids (GTL) process**

Renewable energy will grow

 Wind and solar energy will play bigger part
 By 2030 sustainable biofuels may be up to 10% of transport fuels**

** Routes more suited to aviation end use

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 AVIATION WILL FACE INCREASING PRESSURE TO
REDUCE CO2 Demand
Growing Aviation Aviation CO Profile Aspiration 2
Carbon Neutral Growth
25,000 3,500
Technical & Opera tiona l Abatement Potential
CO 2 Abatement Gap
IPCC High Foreca st 3,000
20,000
2,500
. Technology / CO 2
15,000

MT CO 2
2,000 Opera tions abatement
RPK(billion)

Projected dema nd
required
1,500
10,000
Bio
1,000
IPCC Low Foreca st
5,000
500

0 0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Transport sector expected to grow dramatically, while still needing to lower

emission profile substantially
Aviation sector expecting significant growth; limited potential to abate CO 2
Technical & operational improvements alone will not achieve C-neutral growth
for aviation sector – need biofuels or additional abatement
Aviation is a global fuel but with additional local or regional pressures

Long term carbon neutral growth is a significant challenge for the industry
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 EU LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES & FUEL DEMANDS

Left - Legislation and directives for refineries – and new fuel suppliers
Right - Road fuel demand shift from gasoline to diesel continues
 Jet/kerosene demand expected to increase over this decade
 Aviationfuel producers in Europe have competition for middle distillates
(including the low carbon feedstocks)
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 THE TECHNICAL CHALLENGES – IN A NUTSHELL

ASTM D7566 - Sept 2009 (& ASTM D1655 Jan 2010)

 Up to 50% Fischer-Tropsch hydroprocessed Synthetic Paraffinic
Specifications Kerosene (SPK) – which can act as “pathfinders”
 Up to 50% Hydrogenated Renewable Jet (HRJ) - end 2010?
DEF STAN 91-91 Issue 7 imminent  “Check List” Jet A-1

ICAO adopted – like equipment Technology Readiness Levels

Prioritisation tool for CAAFI to see new fuels in D7566
Fuel Readiness
Levels (FRLs) ASTM D4054 process to prove technical viability
Readacross from chemically similar end products

Technically viable, drop-in and “sustainable”

Expectations for Continue intensive R&D on low C Jet fuel components –
low Carbon
solutions
performance, properties & chemistry - redefine spec “box”?
Many new players, supply routes & QA challenges
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 CERTIFICATION OF A NEW JET FUEL IS A SLOW
PROCESS

New specification D-7566 accepted Fischer-Tropsch synthetic jet fuel.

High FRL FT fuels acted as pathfinders to create a new industry
process.
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 FISCHER-TROPSCH PROCESS & SHELL GTL
PROJECTS
Natural gas, Long chain Finished
Synthesis gas
coal, biomass paraffins XTL products
CO + 2H2
hydro-
hydro-
syngas
syngas Fischer-Tropsch
Fischer-Tropsch refinery/
processing
processing
manufacture
manufacture synthesis
synthesis chemical
cleaning & &&separation
separation
conditioning products: e.g.
• LPG
oxygen O2 • naphtha
H2O out for GTL,
• kerosene
in for CTL • gasoil
Air air
air
separation • base oils
separation
Kerosene is same regardless of feedstock – Producer’s choice • chemicals

1973 1983 1993 Project ramp up 2011

FRL increasing from 1 to 9 over 30 years

Laboratory Pilot plant Bintulu Malaysia Pearl GTL Qatar
Amsterdam Amsterdam 14.7 k bbl/d planned 140k bbl/d
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PEARL GAS-TO-LIQUIDS

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 GTL JET FUEL – A NEW SOURCE OF KEROSENE

Convenient – drop-in replacement – FRL 8-9

Diversity of supply – made from Gas, not Oil
GTL Kerosene
 has no aromatics and virtually no sulphur

 meets ASTM D7566 criteria.

Local emissions benefits (PM, SOx) – could help

to improve local air quality at airports
Aircraft may have to carry slightly less weight of GTL’s combustion (on the right) is less sooty
fuel to cover the same distance
Currently investigating other possible benefits

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 BIO-JET TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE – NOT YET
COMMERCIALLY
BIOFUELS MANUFACTURING PATHWAYS THREE KEYS TO
1. SCALABILITY
CAPEX
Bio-refining routes are an order of
magnitude larger than conventional
refining
2. FEEDSTOCK COST
The most promising feedstocks are
short and sustainable sources carry
additional premia
3. YIELDS
Processing and conversion yields are
poor for the majority of viable biomass
feedstocks

Shell has one of the broadest portfolios of R&D projects and ventures to create
low C fuels with emphasis on scalability, yield and product cost
Typically processes will produce a range of components suitable for both diesel
and kerosene, with varying yields in each boiling range
Aviation: Shell is an active member of CAAFI, FAA-PARTNER, ASTM, CRC,
IATA & EU programmes SWAFEA (DG-TREN) & Alfa-Bird (DG-Research)
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 FINAL COMMENTS

To meet the energy challenge, fuel producers need to balance a growing set of
technical, economical and legislative challenges
Need to consider all options to meet growing aviation fuel demand
 Diesel (particularly in EU) competes with aviation for new feedstocks
Aviation specifications are evolving to assess technical aspects of alternatives,
including renewable (low C), fuel components
Aspired C-neutral growth for aviation looks unattainable without low C fuel
 Technically feasible but commercially challenged – capital investment, product yield
& cost, scalability, sustainability & cheaper abatement options
 Collaborative work & thinking outside box is required for success
Shell participates in a broad range of alternative fuels efforts of in-house
research, collaboration with key manufacturers and industry consortia

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Q&A

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