What is the Demographic Transition?

• The shift from high to low mortality and fertility

through four distinct stages.
• Based on the experience of Western Europe’s
Industrial Age.
• Began by Warren Thompson in 1929.
• Further developed in 1945 by Frank Notestein
• A sign of socio-economic progress?
 Stage 1 - High Fluctuating/ Low Growth
• Birth Rate and Death rate are both high. NIR was 0. Population growth is slow and
fluctuating. Hunting and Gathering Society.
• Reasons
• Birth Rate is high as a result of:
– Lack of family planning
– High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the 'bank'
– Need for workers in agriculture
– Religious beliefs
– Children as economic assets
• Death Rate is high because of:
– High levels of disease
– Famine
– Lack of clean water and sanitation
– Lack of health care
– War
– Competition for food from predators such as rats
– Lack of education
• Typical of Britain in the 18th century and the Least Economically Developed
Countries (LEDC's) today.
 Demographic Transition - Stage 1
• Today, no country in the world is in Stage 1.
 Stage 2 - Early Expanding/ High Growth
Birth Rate remains high. Death Rate is falling. Population
begins to rise steadily. High NIR and expanding population
growth.
Reasons: 1750- Industrial Revolution and Medical
Advancements
 Death Rate is falling as a result of:
 Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine)
 Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)
 Improved sanitation
 Improved food production and storage
 Improved transport for food
 Decreased Infant Mortality Rates
Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria
 Demographic Transition - Stage 2
• Europe and North America entered Stage 2
in the 1800s
• Africa, Asia and Latin America entered into
Stage 2 in the early to mid 1900s
– European colonization brought medical
advancements
• Current Examples: Afghanistan, Many Sub-
Saharan African countries
Stage 3 - Late Expanding/ Moderate Growth
Birth Rate starts to fall sharply. Death Rate continues to fall
but more slowly. CBR still higher than CDR. Slow expanding
population growth. Low NIR.
Reasons:
 Family planning available
 Lower Infant Mortality Rate- medical practices
 Increased mechanization reduces need for workers
 Increased standard of living
 More likely to live in cities
 Changing status of women
 Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century; China; Brazil.
 Demographic Transition - Stage 3
 Europe and North America entered Stage 3
in first half of 1900s
 Many countries in Latin America and Asia
entered Stage 3 in the second half of the
1900s
 Current Examples: Mexico, Panama, South
Africa
 Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating/ Low Growth
• Birth Rate and Death Rate both low. Stationary
population growth. Low to no NIR. Zero population
growth.
• TFR of 2.1 achieves ZPG, unless high immigration
– Economy is settled
– Fully developed Middle Class
– Low TFR
– Political stability
• Typical of USA; Sweden; Japan; Britain
 Demographic Transition - Stage 4
 Current Examples:
– Many European countries (Italy, France)
– United States
– Japan
In Depth New Model
 The Demographic Transition

Fig. 2-13: The demographic transition consists of four stages, which move from high birth and
death rates, to declines first in death rates then in birth rates, and finally to a
stage of low birth and death rates. Population growth is most rapid in the second
stage.
World Population & Growth Rates,
400,000 BC - AD 2000
 Demographic Transition in England

Fig. 2-14: England was one of the first countries to experience rapid population growth in the mid-
eighteenth century, when it entered stage 2 of the demographic transition.