MTE3105

STATISTICS

Tan Sui Chin

Institut Perguruan Gaya
 Chapter 1
Probability

1-1 Introduction to Probability

1-2 Compound Events
1-3 The Addition and Multiplication Rule
1-4 Probability Tree
1-5 Conditional Probabilities
 1-1 Introduction to Probability

Objectives
• develop sound understanding of
probability values used in subsequent
chapters

• develop basic skills necessary to

solve simple probability problems
Basic Definitions
• Event - any collection of results or
outcomes from some procedure
• Simple event - any outcome or even
that cannot be broken
down into simpler
components
• Sample space - all possible simple
events
 Notation
• P - denotes a probability
• A, B, ... - denote specific events

• P (A) - denotes the

probability of event A
occurring
 Methods of
Calculating Probability
Method 1: Subjective Approach

P(A), the probability of A, is found

by simply guessing or estimating
its value based on knowledge of
the relevant circumstances.
 Methods of Computing
Probability
Method 2: Empirical Approach
(i) Relative Frequency
Approximation
Conduct (or observe) an experiment a
large number of times, and count the
number of times event A actually
occurs, then an estimate of P(A) is
number of times A occurred
P(A) = number of times trial was repeated
 Methods of Computing
Probability
Method 2: Empirical Approach
(ii) Classical approach
(requires equally likely outcomes)
If a procedure has n different simple events,
each with an equal chance of occurring, and
s is the number of ways event A can occur,
then
s = number of ways A can occur
P(A) = n number of different simple
events
The relative frequency approach
is an approximation.
The classical approach is the
actual probability.
As a procedure is repeated again and
again, the relative frequency
probability of an event tends to
approach the actual probability
 Example: Find the probability that a randomly
selected person will be struck by lightning this
year.
The sample space consists of two simple events: the
person is struck by lightning or is not. Because these
simple events are not equally likely, we can use the
relative frequency approximation or subjectively estimate
the probability. Using Method 2(i), we can research past
events to determine that in a recent year 377 people were
struck by lightning in the US, which has a population of
about 274,037,295. Therefore,
P(struck by lightning in a year) 
377 / 274,037,295  1/727,000
Example: A typical multiple-choice question
test has 5 possible answers. If you make a
random guess on one such question, what is
the probability that your response is wrong?
There are 5 possible outcomes or
answers, and there are 4 ways to
answer incorrectly. Random guessing
implies that the outcomes in the sample
space are equally likely, so we apply
the classical approach to get:
P(wrong answer) = 4 / 5 = 0.8
 Probability Limits
The probability of an impossible event
is 0.

The probability of an event that is

certain to occur is 1.

0  P(A)  1
Impossible Certain
to occur to occur
Possible Values for Probabilities
1 Certain

Likely

0.5 50-50 Chance

Unlikely

0 Impossible
 Complementary Events
The complement of event A, denoted by
A, consists of all outcomes in which
event A does not occur.

P(A) = 1 - P(A)
(read “not A”)
Example: Testing Corvettes
The General Motors Corporation wants to conduct
a test of a new model of Corvette. A pool of 50
drivers has been recruited, 20 or whom are men.
When the first person is selected from this pool,
what is the probability of not getting a male driver?

Because 20 of the 50 subjects are men, it follows that

30 of the 50 subjects are women so,

P(not selecting a man) = P(man)

= P(woman)
= 1 - 20 = 0.6
50
1-2 Compound Events
Definition
Any event combining 2 or more simple
events

Notation
P(A or B) = P (event A occurs or
event B occurs or they
both occur)
 Compound Event
Formal Addition Rule
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
where P(A and B) denotes the probability that A and B
both occur at the same time.

Intuitive Addition Rule

To find P(A or B), find the sum of the number of ways
event A can occur and the number of ways event B can
occur, adding in such a way that every outcome is
counted only once. P(A or B) is equal to that sum,
divided by the total number of outcomes.
 Definition
Events A and B are mutually exclusive if they cannot
occur simultaneously.

Total Area = 1

P(A) P(B)

P(A and B)
Overlapping Events
 Definition
Events A and B are mutually exclusive if they cannot
occur simultaneously.

Total Area = 1 Total Area = 1

P(A) P(B) P(A) P(B)

P(A and B)
Overlapping Events Non-overlapping Events
 Applying the Addition Rule
P(A or B)
Addition Rule

Are
A and B Yes
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
mutually
exclusive
?
No

P(A or B) = P(A)+ P(B) - P(A and B)

 Example: Contingency Table
Men Women Boys Girls Totals
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223

Find the probability of randomly selecting

a man or a boy.
 Example: Contingency Table
Men Women Boys Girls Totals
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223

Find the probability of randomly selecting

a man or a boy.
 Example: Contingency Table
Men Women Boys Girls Totals
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223

Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or a

boy.
P(man or boy) = 1692 + 64 = 1756 = 0.790 2223 2223
2223
 Example: Contingency Table
Men Women Boys Girls Totals
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223

Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or a boy.

P(man or boy) = 1692 + 64 = 1756 = 0.790
2223 2223 2223

* Mutually Exclusive *
 Example: Contingency Table
Men Women Boys Girls Totals
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223

Find the probability of randomly selecting a man

or someone who survived.
 Example: Contingency Table
Men Women Boys Girls Totals
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223

Find the probability of randomly selecting a man

or someone who survived.
 Example: Contingency Table
Men Women Boys Girls Totals
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223
Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or someone who
survived.

P(man or survivor) = 1692 + 706 - 332 = 1756

2223 2223 2223 2223

= 0.929
 Example: Contingency Table
Men Women Boys Girls Totals
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223
Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or someone who
survived.

P(man or survivor) = 1692 + 706 - 332 = 1756

2223 2223 2223 2223

= 0.929
* NOT Mutually Exclusive *
 Complementary Events
P(A) and P(A)
are
mutually exclusive
All simple events are either in A or A.
P(A) + P(A) = 1
 Venn Diagram for the
Complement of Event A
Total Area = 1

P (A)

P (A) = 1 - P (A)