8 - Population-Resource Models 1600-3400-3600-3650

GEOL1600 - 0GEOL3400 - GEOL3600 - GEOL3650
Human Population
Resource-Population Models
Human Population: Resource-Population Models
Introduction
A teeming street in Kolkata (formerly Calcutta), India visually demonstrates the impact of human
population on the natural and built environments. Source: National Geographic (
https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/09/140920-population-11billion-demographics-
2/26/21 anthropocene/ 2
).
Introduction
• resource consumption determined by three factors:

– population size
– standard of living
– technology
• as the first two increase, demand for resources also increases
– the impact of technology is dual edged
• some technologies increase resource use, negative technologies
• other technologies decrease resource use, positive technologies
2/26/21 3
Introduction: Population Size
London, England
Akha tribal village, northern Thailand
Source:
2/26/21 • village: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Akha_village.jpg 4
• London: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:City_of_London_skyline_from_London_City_Hall_-_Sept_2015_-_Crop_Aligned.jpg
Introduction: Standard of Living
Tiananmen Square, Beijing, China, 1984 Shanghai, China, 1991
Source: China’s History of Bicycles, http://www.theurbancountry.com/2013/02/photos-chinas-history-of-

bicycles.html
2/26/21 5
Introduction: Standard of Living
Beijing, China, 2015 Beijing, China, 2013
Sources:
• Daily Mail,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/peoplesdaily/article-3263440/Thousands-motorists-stranded-Beijing-motorwa
y-incredible-50-lane-traffic-jam-week-long-national-holiday-wraps-up.html
• South China Morning Post, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1298559/beijing-still-struggling-deal-
traffic-congestion
2/26/21 6
Paradigms
• some of the main proponents of population-resource models:

– Thomas Malthus, English clergy (1766-1834)
– Ester Boserup, Danish economist (1910-1999)
– William Vogt, American ecologist and ornithologist (1902-1968)
– Paul Ehrlich, American biologist (1932-present)
– Club of Rome (Donnella and Dennis Meadows, & Jorgen Randers)
– Julian Simon, American economist (1932-1998)
2/26/21 7
neo-Malthusians or Catastrophists
• four influential adherents:

– Thomas Malthus, English economist and Anglian clergy (1766-1834)
– William Vogt, American ecologist and ornithologist (1902-1968)
– Paul Ehrlich, American biologist (1932-present)
– Club of Rome (Donnella and Dennis Meadows, & Jorgen Randers)
• also known as catastrophic environmentalists
2/26/21 8
Anti-Malthusians or Cornucopian Optimists
• two principal promoters:

– Ester Boserup, Danish economist (1910-1999)
– Julian Simon, American economist (1932-1998)
2/26/21 9
Thomas Robert Malthus
"The power of population is

indefinitely greater than the
power in the earth to produce
subsistence for man".
If population growth not

managed and slowed, it will
outstrip its food supply
basically, maintains once

carrying capacity reached,
further growth is prevented by
checks
Thomas R. Malthus (1766-1834)
• English economist and demographer, and Anglican cleric

• starting in 1798 published six editions of a very influential book on population and resources
• 6th edition in 1803 was entitled ‘An Essay on the Principle of Population; or A View of the Its
Past and Present Effects on Human Happiness with An Inquiry into our Prospects Respecting
the Future Removal or Mitigation of the Evils Which It Occasions’
2/26/21 10
• noted difference in growth curves of population and food supply

– population: exponential or geometric growth
• 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128,…
– food supply: linear or arithmetic growth
• 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7,…
• because of these fundamental differences, population always outstrip
their food supply
– once carrying capacity reached, growth is checked by nature or human
actions
• negative checks on population growth are those initiated by humans
and slow the birth rate
– means of slow growth rate are sexual abstinence, delayed marriage,
smaller families
– result of moral restraint
2/26/21 11
• positive checks on population growth are imposed by nature and

increase the death rate
– famine, war, disease
• subsequent historical evidence has shown that war, even modern, industrial
war, is not much of a check on population growth
• notice doesn’t predict much chance of growing food supply
– in his time, only way to increase food was by planting more land
– could be done by:
• draining wet lands
• reclaiming land from the sea
• terracing slopes
• extensive irrigation
– some increase could come from deployment of greenhouses
2/26/21 12
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2/26/21 14
2/26/21 15
• wrote just before the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, which

lead to:
– better transportation
– technologic revolution in agriculture – mechanization
• also did not foresee Scientific Revolution
– higher crop yields
– hardier crops
– better birth control
2/26/21 16
Ester Boserup
“The power of ingenuity

would always outmatch that
of demand".
raising production at the

cost of more work at lower
efficiency is "agricultural
intensification".
Ester Boserup (1910-1999)
• Danish economist who studied economic and agricultural development

• published ‘The Conditions of Agricultural Growth – The Economics of Agrarian
Change under Population Pressure’ in 1965
• at University of Copenhagen and worked for U.N. and in Asia and India
2/26/21 17
Ester Boserup
• two ways to look at population growth and food production:

– how food production impacts population growth (Malthus)
• food supply main factor in controlling rate of population growth
• food supply grows only slowly
• agricultural productivity is determined by historical change, e.g. land availability,
previous agricultural innovation
• these lead to population growth
– how population change impacts agriculture (Boserup)
• suggests population growth stimulates agricultural development and
productivity
• proposed concept of agricultural intensification
– population pressure forces innovations to increase food supply
– when population density reaches critical level, new agricultural methods
are develop to increase output
2/26/21 18
Ester Boserup
2/26/21 19
Ester Boserup
• human ingenuity increased food production through:

– fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides
– improved farming methods and technologies
– GM crops with higher yields/acre, increased resistant to disease, improve
drought resistance
2/26/21 20
William Vogt
• study the relationship

between climate,
population and resources
in Latin American
• linked environmental and
overpopulation problems
• current trends would lead
to future wars, hunger,
disease, and civilizational
collapse
William Vogt (1902-1968) • revived Malthusian theory
• American ecologist and ornithologist

• published ‘Road to Survival’ in 1948
• advocate of population control
• founder of 'apocalyptic environmentalism'—the belief that unless humankind
drastically reduces consumption and limits population, it will ravage global ecosystems
2/26/21 21
Paul Ehrlich
"The battle to feed all of

humanity is over. In the
1970s hundreds of millions
of people will starve to
death in spite of any crash
programs embarked upon
now. At this late date
nothing can prevent a
substantial increase in the
world death rate...’.
Paul Ehrlich (1932-present)
• American biologist at Stanford University

• wrote with his wife (Anne) and published the best selling ‘The Population Bomb’ in 1968
– sold 2 million copies
• credits lecture by William Vogt with making him aware of overpopulation problems
• outcome of debate on overpopulation in 1950s and 1960s
2/26/21 22
Paul Ehrlich
• reviewed the state of the environment and food security

– saw little hope of improving food supply
• "We must rapidly bring the world population under control, reducing
the growth rate to zero or making it negative. Conscious regulation of
human numbers must be achieved. Simultaneously we must, at least
temporarily, greatly increase our food production.“
• some of his suggestions how U.S. could control its population:
– add "temporary sterilants" to water supply or staple foods
– tax on additional children at increasing rates for more children
– luxury tax on childcare goods
– incentives for men who agree to permanent sterilization before they have
two children
– guarantee right to an abortion, expand sex education
– people should choose male offspring to reduce birth rate
2/26/21 23
Paul Ehrlich
– proposed formation of U.S. Department of Population and Environment

• "with the power to take whatever steps are necessary to establish a reasonable
population size in the United States and to put an end to the steady
deterioration of our environment.“
• support research into population control, e.g. better contraceptives, mass
sterilizing agents, and prenatal sex discernment (because families often continue
to have children until a male is born)
• with such an effort, U.S. would be in a position to lead this global
effort to slow population growth
2/26/21 24
Paul Ehrlich
• Ehrlich also had suggestions for population control internationally

– advocates ‘triage’ system to classify nations and determine food aid
– based on countries ability to feed itself
• food independent: would have controlled population growth and could become
food self-sufficient – could receive food aid
• food dependent: would lose food aid, example was to be India
2/26/21 25
Club of Rome & The Limits to Growth
• Club of Rome is a non-government, non-profit organization founded

in 1968
– Aurello Peccei, Italian industrialist
– Alexander King, Scottish scientist
• purpose was to examine the major problems facing humanity and
determine how they could be solved
– wanted to look at interaction between human and natural systems
• first official meeting in Bern, Switzerland
• commissioned team from MIT to model human development to:
– learn the insight of human systems and any constraints on growth
– identify and study primary elements of long-term system behavior
2/26/21 26
Club of Rome & The Limits to Growth
• the study lead to the publication of ‘The Limits to Growth’ in 1972

– authors were Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers
and William W. Behrens III
• they represented a team of 17 researchers
• translated into 30 languages and sold over 30 million copies
• been periodically updated every five years or so:
– 1993: Beyond the Limits (20 year update)
– 2004: Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update
– 2012: no update
2/26/21 27
Club of Rome & Limits to Growth
• used ‘World3’ computer simulation to investigate interactions

between human and natural systems
– based on computer model of MIT Professor Jay Forrester (World
Dynamics)
• focused on five primary parameters
– population
– agricultural production
– non-renewable natural resource consumption
– industrial production
– pollution
• altered growth rate of these variables in three scenarios
– two result into ‘overshoot and collapse’
– one predicted a stabilized world
2/26/21 28
• historically, duration of a reserve (called R/P) is calculated from:

R 
reserves  R
P production rate  P
where R is reserve in mass or volume, P is production rate, and is R/P is expressed in years
– in 1972, chromium reserves were 775 million mt and amount mined annually was 1.85
million mt giving a static reserve of 418 years
– however, consumption was steadily growing not constant
• assuming constant growth rate (r), introduced concept of exponential reserve index:
ln   r s   1
Y 
r
where y = years left, r = continuous compounding growth rate, R=reserve, C=annual
consumption, and s=R/C
2/26/21 29
• static reserve assumes constant usage, where exponential reserves

assumes constant growth rate
2/26/21 30
declining resources would limit population growth
2/26/21 31
• basic tenant of group is there are biophysical limits to human

population growth
2/26/21 32
Julian L. Simon
“-”
Julian L, Simon(1932-1998)
• American professor of business administration at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and

later at University of Maryland
– Senior Fellow at Cato Institute
• published ‘The Ultimate Resource’ in 1981 with a revised edition (The Ultimate Resource 2) in 1996
• founder of free-market environmentalism – market or economic solutions can solve environmental
problems
2/26/21 33
Julian Simon
• basic tenant is resource scarcity drives up price

– creates market incentive to develop new technologies
• three ways of reducing scarcity:
– extract the resource more effectively
– find substitutes
– manage society’s demand for resources
• some examples of innovations that have increased resource supply
– oil: hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling
– copper: solvent exchange and electrowinning (SX-EW) has opened up new
types of copper deposits as well as other metallic deposits
• felt there were economic solutions to resource scarcity
2/26/21 34
Simon-Ehrlich Wager
• Paul Ehrlich in print said "If I were a gambler, I would take even

money that England will not exist in the year 2000“
• Simon thought this was absurd and in the Social Science Quarterly
challenged Ehrlich to a bet
– “a public offer to stake US$10,000 ... on my belief that the cost of non-
government-controlled raw materials (including grain and oil) will not rise
in the long run.“
• according to the bet Ehrlich could pick five resources and a date more
than a year away
• the resources chosen and wager date
– copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten
– formalized September 29,1980
– pay-off date was to be September 29, 1990 (a decade)
2/26/21 35
Simon-Ehrlich Wager
• Ehrlich and colleagues bought $200 of each metal for a total

expenditure of $1,000
– if prices rose, Simon would pay Ehrlich the difference whereas Ehrlich
would pay Simon the difference if prices fell
– costs would be inflation adjusted
• during time of wager, world’s population grew by 800 million
– biggest decadal increase in history
• on pay-off date, prices of all five metals were down
– Cr: $3.90/lb dropped to $3.70/lb
– Sn: $8.72/lb dropped to $3.88/lb
• Ehrlich payed Simon $576.07 for having lost the wager
2/26/21 36
Simon-Ehrlich Wager
• What does the wager tell us about future resource scarcity and the
potential fate of the world’s population?
– not much!!!!
• indicates more about economic market behavior than carrying
capacity limits
• tired to arrange a second bet, but didn’t succeed
– Ehrlich want to bet on the state of the environment, e.g. CO2 levels, ozone
layer, etc.
– Simon wanted to get it based on commodity prices like before
2/26/21 37
Simon-Ehrlich Divide
• both protagonists made totally ridiculous statements:

– Simon: we can turn other metals into copper, can support human population
growth for thousands of years
– Ehrlich: ‘my predictions have all been correct’, no mistakes at all, hundreds of
millions have died of famine because of overpopulation, population has
exceeded carrying capacity, which is 1.5-2 billion
• lots of famines in 20th Century
– 1921 – Soviet Union – 5 million
– 1932-1933 – Soviet Union and Ukraine – 7-10 million
– 1943 – Bengal – 1.5-7 million
– 1959-1961 – China – 15-43 million
– 1957-1970 – Nigeria (Biafra)
– 1968-1972 – Sahel – 1 million
– 1972-1973 – Ethiopia – 60,000
– 1991-1992 – Somalia – 300,000
– 2011-2012 – Somalia – 285,000 (drought)
• none of these famines were associated with food shortage due to population growth
2/26/21 38
Simon-Ehrlich Divide
• another bet in 2002, investment banker Matthew Simmons (Twilight

in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy -
2006) wagered $5,000 with Rita Simon and journalist John Tierney
that in 2010 average global oil prices would be over $200/b
– at time of bet it was $65/b
– in 2010, it was $80/b
2/26/21 39
Catastrophists – Basic Tenants
2/26/21 40
Cornucopians – Basic Tenants
2/26/21 41
Carrying Capacity’s Importance
• all models implicitly assume Earth has a carrying capacity with respect to
human population
• population increases according to a logistic growth model
• difference between two camps is the nature of the carrying capacity
• Malthusian – fixed carrying capacity
• anti-Malthusian – carrying capacity can be changed by innovation
2/26/21 42
Summary
• I think a few lines from the last page of Paul Sabin’s book ‘The Bet –
Paul Ehrlich, Julian Simon, and Our Gamble over Earth’s Future’ (2013)
sums up this debate very well
– the antagonists ‘stark framing of the future as either apocalyptic or utopian
makes the conversation [about the future] almost impossible.’
– ‘Our task is not to choose between these competing perspectives, but
rather to find ways to wrestle with their tensions and uncertainties, and to
take what each offers that is of value.’
“Ultimately, humanity’s course will be determined ….. more by the social and
political choices that we make. Neither biology nor economics can substitute
for the deeper ethical question: What kind of world do we desire?”
Paul Sabin, The Bet
2/26/21 43

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GEOL1600 - 0GEOL3400 - GEOL3600 - GEOL3650

• resource consumption determined by three factors:

Akha tribal village, northern Thailand

Tiananmen Square, Beijing, China, 1984 Shanghai, China, 1991

Source: China’s History of Bicycles, http://www.theurbancountry.com/2013/02/photos-chinas-history-of-

Beijing, China, 2015 Beijing, China, 2013

• some of the main proponents of population-resource models:

• four influential adherents:

• two principal promoters:

"The power of population is

If population growth not

basically, maintains once

Thomas R. Malthus (1766-1834)

• English economist and demographer, and Anglican cleric

• noted difference in growth curves of population and food supply

• positive checks on population growth are imposed by nature and

• wrote just before the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, which

“The power of ingenuity

raising production at the

Ester Boserup (1910-1999)

• Danish economist who studied economic and agricultural development

• two ways to look at population growth and food production:

• human ingenuity increased food production through:

• study the relationship

• American ecologist and ornithologist

"The battle to feed all of

• American biologist at Stanford University

• reviewed the state of the environment and food security

– proposed formation of U.S. Department of Population and Environment

• Ehrlich also had suggestions for population control internationally

• Club of Rome is a non-government, non-profit organization founded

• the study lead to the publication of ‘The Limits to Growth’ in 1972

• used ‘World3’ computer simulation to investigate interactions

• historically, duration of a reserve (called R/P) is calculated from:

• static reserve assumes constant usage, where exponential reserves

declining resources would limit population growth

• basic tenant of group is there are biophysical limits to human

• American professor of business administration at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and

• basic tenant is resource scarcity drives up price

• Paul Ehrlich in print said "If I were a gambler, I would take even

• Ehrlich and colleagues bought $200 of each metal for a total

• both protagonists made totally ridiculous statements:

• another bet in 2002, investment banker Matthew Simmons (Twilight

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