Chapter 2 Problems

2018 MT1

The  hats of persons are thrown into a box. The persons then pick up their hats at random (i.e.,
so that every assignment of the hats to the persons is equally likely). What is the probability
that
a) every person gets his or her hat back?
b) the first persons who picked hats get their own hats back?
Now assume, in addition, that every hat thrown into the box has probability of getting dirty
(independently of what happens to the other hats or who has dropped or picked it up). What is
the probability that
c) the first persons will pick up clean hats?
d) exactly persons will pick up clean hats?
2018 MT1

a) The
  sample space here contains a total of possible hat assignments which are equally
likely to be observed. In only one of these assignments every person gets his or her own
hat back. Thus, the desired probability is .
b) The constraint here is only on the first persons and we are not interested in whether the
rest of these persons get their own hats back or not. The assignments of the remaining
hats can be done in different ways. Using the sample space in part (a), we find the desired
probability as .
c) The probability of a given person picking up a clean hat is . By the independence
assumption, the desired probability is found as .
2018 MT1

d) Consider
  all possible groups of persons. There are a total of such groups. Now, let be the
event that everyone from the group picks up a clean hat and everyone not from this group
picks up a dirty hat. Then, , where Since ’s are disjoint, the desired probability is found
as . Note that this is also the binomial distribution formulation (where ).
2017 MT1

Let  A, B, and C be events such that their union covers the entire sample space; that is, . If B
and C are mutually exclusive and A is independent of both B and C, find .

Hence, , provided that .

2017 MT1 b

Each  of 15 jars contains 5 white and 3 black balls. A ball is randomly chosen from jar 1 and
transferred to jar 2, then a ball is randomly chosen from jar 2 and transferred to jar 3, etc.
Finally, a ball is randomly chosen from jar 15. What is the probability that the last selected ball
is white?
Then,
2016 MT1

All the employees at a certain company drive to work and park in the company’s lot. The
company is interested in estimating the average number of workers in a car. Which of the
following methods will enable the company to estimate this quantity? Explain your answer.
Randomly choose n workers, find out how many were in the cars in which they were driven,
and take the average of the n values.
Randomly choose n cars in the lot, find out how many were driven in those cars, and take the
average of the n values.
Method “b” will enable the company to estimate the average number of workers in a car.
Because, when we randomly choose n workers rather than randomly choosing n cars, then,
there is a possibility of choosing the workers in the same car, so we may end up with a wrong
result. If we randomly choose n cars, there is no possibility of choosing a car and adding same
people into the calculation again and again. That’s why method “b” will give us a more
accurate result than the method “a” will do.
2016 MT1 b

Assume
  that you are given the task to find a passenger aircraft that would satisfy the needs of your customers. You
narrowed down the number of possible choices to two after a detailed research and now you will share your report with
your boss. She notices that the X340 model has four engines, whereas the Y747 model has only two and wonders
which of the models is safer to travel with. Intuitively, you tell her that the latter model would not be a good choice
from that point of view; however, she is not satisfied with your answer. Now, you have a new task: Assuming that all
engines function with probability p, independent of each other, determine the range of values of p, for which the latter
model is more likely to travel safer than the former model. Assume that the planes will be unsafe if all their engines
fail.
Let X be the event where X340 is unsafe and Y be the event that Y474 is unsafe then:

We want to find the values of p where Y747 is safer, hence we are looking for:

It is clear that no values of p will satisfy this inequality. Hence Y747 is not safer for any values of p.
2015 MT1

Ayşe and Ali are presented with four different dice:

The first one has two sides marked 0 and four sides marked 4,
The second one has a 3 on every side,
The third one has a 2 on four sides and a 6 on two sides,
The fourth one has a 1 on three sides and a 5 on three sides.
Ayşe allows her friend to pick any of the four dice he wishes. Then, she picks one of the
remaining three and each of them subsequently rolls their dice. The person with the larger
number wins a dollar. Show that Ayşe can choose her die so that she has probability (2/3) of
winning no matter which die her friend picks.
 2015 MT1

The Die Ayşe Picks

Die #1 (D1) Die #2 (D2) Die #3 (D3) Die #4 (D4)

2 4 1 2 4 2 5 2 4 3 2
D1 𝑃12 = 6 ∙ 1 + 6 ∙ 0 = 3 𝑃13 = 6 ∙ 1 + 6 ∙ 6 = 9 𝑃14 = 6 ∙ 1 + 6 ∙ 6 = 3
The Die Ali Picks

4 2 2 1 3 1
D2 𝑃21 = 1 ∙ = 𝑃23 = 1 ∙ = 𝑃24 = 1 ∙ =
6 3 6 3 6 2
4 4 4 4 2 4 3 1
D3 𝑃31 = ∙ = 𝑃32 = ∙ 1 = 𝑃34 = ∙ =
6 6 9 6 3 6 6 3
3 4 1 3 1 3 3 2 2
D4 𝑃41 = 6 ∙ 6 = 3 𝑃42 = 6 ∙ 1 = 2 𝑃43 = 6 ∙ 1 + 6 ∙ 6 = 3
2015 MT1 b

Suppose
  that for the maze given below you have a probability of p for moving from any of the
edges into the center and probability of for moving from that edge to any adjacent corner.
Also the probabilities of moving from a corner to any adjacent edge are equal. What is the
probability that you eventually end up in the center of the maze if you start from any one of
the edges?
2015 MT1 b

  

You have a probability of p for moving from any edge to the center and a probability of 1 – p
for moving to any one of the adjacent corners. If you move to a corner from that edge you
have a probability of 1 of going to an edge on the next move which has a probability of p
moving to the center once again. So if the probability of moving into the center eventually is S,
 
2014 MT1

A system
  has two components placed in series so that the system fails if either of the two
components fails. The second component is twice as likely to fail as the first. If the two
components operate independently, and if the probability that the entire system fails is 0.28,
find the probability that the first component fails.

Since the probability of an event CANNOT exceed 1, is the desired answer.

2013 MT1

Suppose
  we roll two fair dice – a red die and a green die. Let A be the event that the red die shows a 2 or
a 5, and let B the event that the sum of the two dice is between 8 and 10 (inclusive).
a) Compute P(A).
b) Compute P(B).
c) Are events A and B mutually exclusive?
d) Compute P(A∪B).
e) Are events A and B independent?

f) No, .

g) Yes, .