D AT A A N A L Y T I C S

FOR LEADERS

Quality Kitchens Assigment

Group 2
Raja Brn Mahmoud
Chiheb Thabet
Enes Agaoglu
Rayan Kammarti
Gassan benHmida 203-2007ID
Chiheb Khaldi
ASSUMPTIONS

1. Shift promotion season( prom-1) effect

2. Shift advertisement season (adv-1) effects

3. Merge of season (Q2+Q3) and season

(Q1+Q4)

4. Index variation between quarter to another

 SELECTED MODEL

RAPPORT DÉTAILLÉ
1. The adjusted R2 is highly statisticly significant
Statistiques de la régression 2. All the variables are significants (DIFFERENT FROM 0 )
Coefficient de détermination
multiple 0.95444919
Coefficient de détermination
R^2 0.91097326
3. Sales = 6.21prom+2.527adv-3.72(prom-1)+2.877(adv-1)-12.62
Coefficient de détermination varindex+51.7(q1+q4)
R^2 0.87758824
Erreur-type 47.0010914
Observations 23

Limite inférieure Limite supérieure

pour seuil de pour seuil de
 a Coefficients Erreur-type Statistique t Probabilité confiance = 95% confiance = 95,0%
Constante 255.321627 27.5751003 9.25913683 7.928E-08 196.865025 313.778228
prom 6.20821838 0.71048723 8.73797315 1.7333E-07 4.70205273 7.71438404
adv 2.52715543 0.58772608 4.29988647 0.0a055079 1.28123179 3.77307907
prom-1 -3.7224477 0.66745727 -5.5770578 4.1691E-05 -5.1373939 -2.3075015
adv-1 2.87773905 0.613016 4.69439467 0.00024363 1.57820318 4.17727493
var index -12.622519 4.65284241 -2.7128619 0.01536175 -22.486104 -2.7589338
q1+q4 51.7178243 21.4926433 2.40630357 0.02855863 6.15545593 97.2801927
ANSWEWRS

 The coefficients of prom, adv, adv-1 and Q1+Q4 are positive: increases the sales.
 The coefficients of prom-1 and index variation are negative: decreases the sales.

Q U E S T I O N 1
If we have to spend 1000 usd we have to look at the following :
o Prom 6.2 prom-1 -3.72 > cumulative 2.48
o Adv 2.52 Adv-1 2.87 > cumulative 5.39

Conclusion :
We advise Mr F to invest in advertisement
QUESTION 2
o The coefficient of index var = -12.62
o If the variation of the index is positive the sales go down and visversa
Conclusion :
Indeed the meat loaf mix is a counter cyclical product.
QUESTION 3

o Association of season Q1+Q4 coefficient : 51.7

Conclusion :
There is a significant seasonal effect associated with meat loaf mix sales