Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Global Financial Crisis
Global Financial Crisis
Global Financial Crisis
ISHRAT HUSAIN
July 12, 2012
AGENDA
3
Context and Background
(Continued)
4
Context and Background
(Continued)
Between 2005 and 2010 both the poverty rate and the
number of people living in extreme poverty have fallen in all
the six developing countries, the first time that has
happened.
5
Context and Background
(Continued)
6
Context and Background
(Continued)
7
Context and Background
(Continued)
8
Context and Background
(Continued)
9
Context and Background
(Continued)
10
Trigger Point Sub-Prime lending
Defining it
“Liars’ loans”
11
Brief chronology of key events
March 2008
Bear Stearns is sold to J.P. Morgan for $ 240 million with Fed backing.
12
Brief chronology of key events
(Continued)
October 2008
UK government announces a $ 88 billion rescue plan for the
financial system.
Takes major stake in UK banks.
US government approves a $ 700 billion plan.
European and Asian governments follow suit.
Iceland takes over a third bank and obtains IMF assistance to
cope with the financial crisis.
Contagion, spillovers, linkages and herd instincts proved to be fairly
strong and the EDEs also suffered output and export losses.
However, they recovered much quickly than the AEs.
13
Contributory factors
(Continued)
14
What went wrong?
Banking System
15
What went wrong?
Shadow Banking
16
What went wrong?
Credit rating agencies
Conflict of interest
Relationship conflicts: Long, established relationships with CDO and MBS issuers
Issuer-paid model: “… paid by the very people whose products they rate”
Advisory business: CRAs advised banks on structuring MBSs leading to good rating
17
What went wrong?
Flawed Theoretical Assumption
Individual does not always behave rationally but in network economy his/
her behavior depends on what others are doing. Herd instinct is a
common observable trait.
20
Response to the crisis
A summary of responses
21
Response to the crisis
A summary of responses
24
Impact of the crisis on Pakistan
27
Salient Features and Lessons Learnt
(Continued)
Second, Asian countries had learnt the hard way from the crisis
they face in 1997-98. Prudent macroeconomic management,
credibility of policy makers, open trading and investment
regimes, accumulation of sufficient foreign exchange reserves
combined together to maintain an enabling environment for
growth and stability.
28
Salient Features and Lessons Learnt
(Continued)
Third, the banks in EDEs relied upon low cost and stable deposits
for financing their assets rather than wholesale funding that was
volatile and expensive. This permitted maturity transformation,
ample liquidity to the system and preserved confidence among
investors. In the US and Europe, abrupt withdrawal of wholesale
funds led to a vicious cycle of distressed sales of assets, falling
asset values, shortages in capital adequacy and difficulties in
raising fresh capital from the private sources.
29
Salient Features and Lessons Learnt
(Continued)
30
Salient Features and Lessons Learnt
(Continued)
31
Salient Features and Lessons Learnt
(Continued)
32
Lessons on Corporate governance
OECD Findings