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Group 2: Confirmation Bias Availability Bias Representation Bias Framing Bias
Group 2: Confirmation Bias Availability Bias Representation Bias Framing Bias
CONFIRMATION BIAS
AVAILABILITY BIAS
REPRESENTATION BIAS
FRAMING BIAS
CONFIRMATION BIAS
TOLSTOY QUOTE:
“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted
man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the
simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he
is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of
doubt, what is laid before him.”
EXAMPLE
Madrid bombing on march 11th,2004
FBI misidentified Brandon Mayfield’s Finger prints, a lawyer from Portland, Oregon. Later it was
discovered to be an Algerian terrorist.
Biases in this case:
The first examiner made up his mind and didn’t think, things could be different the re-examination
The second examiner thought why should he check the first one’s examination is right
Some attributed it to the badly maintained laboratory conditions.
After the MAYFIELD case, several British researchers led by Itiel E.Dror devised this
experiment(this sample didn’t include the bomber).
Several finger print examiners were asked by colleagues to match crime scene and suspect print
Actually they were given the fingerprints of people they already analyzed, but they didn’t know
that
The experimenter just hinted saying that the FBI had erroneously mismatched and it was the
Algerian bomber’s fingerprints
Their were three results to this:
1. Only one person went and rechecked.
2. One said its insufficient data and nothing can be deduced
3. The majority contradicted their earlier statements and agreed it is the Algerian bomber’s.
AVAILABILITY BIAS
Availability bias causes people to base their decisions on the
most recent and meaningful events. The brain views ancient
history as anything that happened more than a couple of
years ago.
Cases of Availability Bias:
over 80%. The correct answer, found using Bayes' theorem, is much
lower than these estimates.
FRAMING BIAS
The frame of the problem that biases our reasoning
which causes us to make poor decisions is called the
framing bias.
Examples:
Story of smoke in prayer room “Can I smoke” Vs “In
moments of human weakness when I smoke, may I also
pray?’’