7250ENV: WEEK 3

HOW HUMANS HAVE MODIFIED THE

ATMOSPHERE’S COMPOSITION AND JUST
ABOUT EVERYTHING ELSE…
Associate Professor Al Gabric
School of Environment and Science
 STUDY RESOURCES FOR THIS WEEK

Text: Eggleton, T. (2013). A Short Introduction to Climate Change (e-book), Chapter 3, from
page 36; Chapter 12, from page 190.
Williams, J. & Crutzen, P.J. (2013). Perspectives on our planet in the Anthropocene, Env
Chem. 10(4). Retrieved from:
http://www.publish.csiro.au/view/journals/dsp_journal_fulltext.cfm?nid=188&f=EN13061
Waters, C.N. et al. (2016). The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from
the Holocene, Science. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aad2622
IPCC, AR5, Chpt 7 and 8 (lots here!) (online report) 

Some relaxing music

2
 Everything in the
Earth System is
OVERARCHING
THEME FOR interconnected !
THIS WEEK…
Several subsystems or "spheres" interact to form a complex
and continuously changing whole called the Earth system.
Lithosphere, Cryosphere, Hydrosphere, Atmosphere,
Biosphere

3
 ‘Reality cannot be found except in one single source,
because of the interconnection of all things with one
another’
Leibniz, German Philosopher, 1646-1716

‘A human being is a part of the whole called by us

universe, a part limited in time and space. He
experiences himself, his thoughts and feeling as
something separated from the rest, a kind of optical
delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of
prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and
to affection for a few persons nearest to us.

THOUGHTS Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by

widening our circle of compassion to embrace all living
creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty’
Albert Einstein , 1879-1955

4
TOPICS COVERED

• Past Climates
• Evolution of the atmosphere
• Human perturbation of the
atmosphere and its impact on
energy balance
• The Anthropocene

5
WHY DO WE NEED TO ANALYSE PAST CLIMATES?

Gives us a better understanding of the natural variability in climate.

If we can explain past climates, we can improve conceptual and computer
models to enable better projections of climate under anthropogenic forcing.
Recent paleo research is turning up some very intriguing results, many of which
we don’t yet understand.

For international research efforts in paleoclimate see:

http://www.pages.unibe.ch/

6
PROF WALLACE
BROECKER, COLUMBIA
UNIVERSITY, NY.

‘The paleoclimate record shouts

out to us that, far from being
self-stabilizing, the Earth's
climate system is an ornery
beast which overreacts even to
small nudges’
For a short bio on this notable
climate scientist see here

7
Image source: Earth Institute, Columbia University. Retrieved from: https://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/2246
 SOME TERMINOLOGY

Geochronolgy deals with the concept of geological time and dating the
sequence of events throughout the Earth's history.
Intervals of geological time are given formal names and grouped into a
hierarchy according to their length: Eon, Era, Period, Epoch, Age and
Chron, in decreasing time intervals.
Subdivisions are termed 'early-', 'mid-' or 'late-' e.g. Early Jurassic.

8
GEOLOGICAL TIMESCALES…VERY, VERY LONG

The Quaternary Period is the

geologic time period from
1.806 million years ago to the
present …
It represents the time during
which recognizable humans
have existed.

The Carboniferous coal beds

provided much of the fuel for
power generation during the
Industrial Revolution

9
SOURCES OF
PALEO-DATA:

• ice cores (millenia)

• marine sediment cores
(millenia)
• coral cores (centuries)
• tree rings (centuries-millenia)

Image source: British Antarctic Survey. Retrieved from: http://www.nbcnews.com/id/5174246/ns/us_news-environment/t/next-ice-age-years-study-predicts/

10
METHODS OF PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

Direct methods:
• ground temperature data (short term)
• gas composition in ice core
• sediment pore-water changes
• glacier extent changes
Indirect or proxy methods:
• tree ring width and density
• pollen and plankton in sediments
• stable isotope ratios e.g oxygen ratios in corals and other biotic carbonate
(forams) can be used to infer past temperatures and salinity

11
 RECORD OF THE ICE AGES

Global climate has changed dramatically in the past between glacial when huge ice-sheets covered
large areas, to periods when ice-sheets were confined to the polar regions.

Image source unknown

12
GLACIAL-INTERGLACIAL
VARIATIONS OVER 600K
YRS

Variations of deuterium (δD; black),

a proxy for local temperature, and
the atmospheric concentrations of
the greenhouse gases CO2 (red),
CH4 (blue), and nitrous oxide (N2O;
green) derived from air trapped
within ice cores from Antarctica
and from recent atmospheric
measurements (AR4)
Image source unknown

13
GLACIAL-INTERGLACIAL VARIATIONS OVER 600K YRS (CONT.)

• Studies of proxy data on the recent glaciations have shown that since
about 800 kyr ago, the glaciation-interglaciation fluctuations occur at
roughly 100 kyr intervals.
• The interglacial warm periods last for much shorter time intervals of
~10Kyr
• These climatic fluctuations were accompanied by large changes in mean
sea level of up to 120m!

14
 WHY WAS CO 2 LOW DURING ICE-AGES?

There are many hypotheses:

Most are centred on the ocean carbon cycle (particularly the Southern
Ocean) and interplay between large-scale circulation, biological uptake,
carbonate chemistry and air-sea exchange.
But this remains an unresolved issue:

Listen to the podcast. Retrieved from:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode/which-came-first-low-co2-or-an-ice-13-09-01/

See also ‘Did Ocean’s Big Burps End Last Ice Age?’:
https://www.livescience.com/49774-ocean-co2-ended-ice-age.html
15
 CAUSES OF PAST CLIMATE CHANGES

In 1941, Milankovitch described and calculated the fluctuations in the orbit of the earth around the
sun.
These cycles affect climate by varying the incoming solar radiation.
This then causes relatively cool or relatively warm periods which can trigger glaciations or
interglacials.
Triggers can occur through feedback loops in the Earth System,

Example of a feedback:
Less solar radiation due to orbit changes,
>>> more surface ice,
>>> increases surface albedo and reflection of radiation,
>>> further cooling the planet
16
MILANKOVITCH
CYCLES

Precession cycles (rotation of the

earths axis; cycles have periods
between 19 and 24 kyr)
Obliquity cycles (tilt of the earths
axis relative to the orbital plane;
periods between 40 and 54 kyr
Eccentricity cycles (how elliptical
the earths orbit is, major periods
around 100 and 400 kyr).
Image source unknown

17
 ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE

Ice-core data show that abrupt change has occurred frequently during the last glacial - with
large changes on time periods < 30 yrs!
Leading hypotheses for abrupt climate change are focused on the ocean circulation
response to a freshening of surface waters in the North Atlantic with disruption of North
Atlantic Deep Water formation.
Abrupt climate change is defined in the IPCC-AR5 as a large-scale change in the climate
system that takes place over a few decades or less, persists (or is anticipated to persist) for
at least a few decades and causes substantial disruptions in human and natural systems.
For more info see: IPCC-AR5 Tech Summary p70-72

18
 ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE (CONT.)

Dansgaard-Oescheger events: Rapid climate fluctuations occurring every ~1500 years

throughout the last ice age. Twenty-three such events have been identified between
110,000 and 23,000 years BP.

During these D-O events Greenland warmed from 8-16°C within a few decades!

Heinrich events: Armadas of icebergs broke off from glaciers and traversed the North
Atlantic (about every 1500yrs). The icebergs contained rock mass eroded by the glaciers,
and as they melted, this matter was dropped onto the sea floor as "ice rafted debris".
Strong reduction in salinity and sea-surface cooling – lasting 100s-1000s of yrs.

19
EVEN WITHIN AN ICE-AGE, CLIMATE IS NOT CONSTANT

Image source unknown

Temperature reconstructions from ocean sediments and Greenland ice. Proxy data
from the subtropical Atlantic (green) and from the Greenland ice core GISP2 (blue)
show several Dansgaard–Oescheger (D/O) warm events (numbered).The timing of
Heinrich events (H0-H6) is marked in red. YD = Younger Dryas event.
20
SIMULATION OF A
HYPOTHETICAL SHUTDOWN
OF NADW
Note the hemispheric see-saw (Northern Hemisphere cools while
the Southern Hemisphere warms) and the maximum cooling over
the northern Atlantic. In this particular model (HadCM3)7, the
surface cooling resulting from switching off NADW formation is up
to 6 °C. It is further to the west compared with most models,
which tend to put the maximum cooling near Scandinavia. This
probably depends on the exact location of deep-water formation
(an aspect not well represented in current coarse-resolution
models) and on the sea-ice distribution in the models, as ice-
margin shifts act to amplify the cooling. The largest air
temperature cooling is thus greater than the largest sea surface
temperature (SST) cooling. The latter is typically around 5 °C and
roughly corresponds to the observed SST difference between the
Figure 1: Changes in surface air temperature caused by a shutdown of
northern Atlantic and Pacific at a given latitude. In most models, North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation in a current ocean–
maximum air temperature cooling ranges from 6°C to 11°C in atmosphere circulation model. Source: Rahmstorf, S. (2002). Ocean
circulation and climate during the past 120,000 years. Nature 419, 207-
annual mean; the effect is generally stronger in winter. 214. Retrieved from: https://www.nature.com/articles/nature01090
21
WAY, WAY BACK IN THE PAST…HOTHOUSE CLIMATES

The Cretaceous is the time period from 145 million years ago up to the demise of the
dinosaurs about 65 million years ago.
The Eocene epoch is a more recent period, from 56 to 34 million years ago.
In the Eocene, the polar climate — particularly the Arctic climate — was very different from
today's with high atmospheric CO2 (estimated at about 3 times current levels) most likely
due to widespread volcanic emissions.
Many lines of evidence indicate temperatures well above freezing, with little or no
permanent land ice and infrequent or absent sea ice. Lemurs could live in Spitzbergen
(High Arctic), and crocodiles on Hudson Bay (Canada), to name a few examples.

22
GEOLOGICAL TIMESCALES…VERY, VERY LONG

Eocene epoch
was in this period

23
GEOLOGICAL TIMESCALES…VERY, VERY LONG (CONT.)

The early Eocene is characterized by above-freezing temperatures in the polar winter, and tropical
temperatures not substantially greater than today. Increases in the vigour of the hydrological cycle and
meridional latent heat transport have frequently been cited as the cause.

These hothouse climates are idealized as having been almost completely free of significant ice
sheets on land and sea ice cover in the ocean. One theory suggests a permanent El Nino like state
persisted during the Eocene.

Hothouse climates pose a challenge to our understanding of climate in general, but more particularly
they serve as a critical clue as to what surprises a high-CO2 world might have in store for us.

For more info on ‘hothouse climates’ see: Kidder, D.L., & Worsley, T.R. (2012). A human-induced
hothouse climate? The Geological Society of America. Retrieved from: DOI: 10.1130/G131A.1

24
 OUR CURRENT GEOLOGICAL PERIOD

The Holocene is part of the Neogene and Quaternary geological periods. Its name
comes from the Greek words (holos, whole or entire) and (kainos, new), meaning
"entirely recent".
It can be considered an interglacial in the current ice age and began
approximately 11,550 calendar years BP (about 9600 BC).
The end of the last ice age and the transition to the Holocene is the last first-order
global climatic change on record.

25
 HOLOCENE CLIMATE

Since then, climate has been relatively warm and stable (with some notable exceptions,
e.g the cooling which occurred at 8.2Kyr BP)
A rise in sea level by 130 m between 19 kyr and 7 kyr ago marks the rapid vanishing of the
glacial ice sheets.
This provided a conducive environment for the development of human civilization.
Many puzzles surround the complex sequence of events that occurred during deglaciation,
and three key factors need to be considered: the changes in insolation (due to the
Milankovitch cycles) which must have initiated deglaciation, the rise in atmospheric CO 2
levels providing a strong global warming feedback, and changes in ocean circulation.

26
HOLOCENE TEMPERATURES

The climate curve looks like a “hump”. At the beginning of the Holocene – after the end of the last Ice
Age – global temperature increased, and subsequently it decreased again by 0.7 ° C over the past 5000
years. The well-known transition from the relatively warm Medieval into the “little ice age” turns out to
be part of a much longer-term cooling, which ended abruptly with the rapid warming of the 20th 27
Century.
WHAT ABOUT THE FUTURE – THE ANTHROPOCENE?

Global heating leads to:

• Melting of glaciers, ice sheets (already happening)
• Probably more precipitation at high latitudes
• Both cause lower ocean salinity (density)
• Possible weakening of thermohaline circulation

Global heating ==> Regional cooling?

• Thermohaline shutdown ==> a dramatic European cooling - but
unlikely in the short term !

28
TOPICS COVERED

• Past Climates
• Evolution of the
atmosphere
• Human perturbation of the
atmosphere and its impact on
energy balance
• The Anthropocene

29
MODERN (HOLOCENE) ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION

78% N2 (molecular nitrogen)

21% O2 (molecular oxygen)
1% H2O (Water Vapour)
0.93% Argon
CO2 (0.035%)…….and rising
Traces of CH4, N2O, and the Inert Gases (Ne, He, Kr, Xe)
Particulates or aerosols (mineral dust, sea salt, soot, sulfates, etc.)

30
EARTH IS THE ONLY PLANET IN THE SOLAR SYSTEM
WHOSE ATMOSPHERE CONTAINS SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS
OF OXYGEN

Image source unknown

31
 EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE IS UNUSUAL!

‘Above 25% (O2) very little of our present land vegetation could survive the
raging conflagrations which would destroy tropical rain forests and Arctic
tundra alike... The present O2 level is at a point where risk and benefit nicely
balance.
If you look back at the writings of Earth scientists 40 years ago you will find
them confident that the composition and climate of our planet were
completely explicable from chemistry and physics and that life was just a
passenger.’

James Lovelock, Scientist and Author

32
VERTICAL STRUCTURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE

The stratosphere is warmer than the

upper troposphere. Absorption of
solar ultraviolet energy by ozone
produces most of the heating in the
middle atmosphere
The average thickness of the ozone
layer varies across the globe - but if
compressed by sea-level pressures, it
would be only a few millimetres thick

33
VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE (CONT.)

The bottom layer, where temperature decreases with altitude, is known

as the troposphere (from the Greek for "turning layer").
The troposphere is ~ 12 km thick.
All the weather that we are primarily interested in, occurs in the
troposphere. The top of the troposphere is marked by the tropopause -
also referred to as the “top of the atmosphere” for radiative forcing
calculations.
NB Although higher the ozone layer is crucial to life on earth as it blocks
damaging (to life) incoming UV radiation.

34
 Sept, 2000
STRATOSPHERIC OZONE
LAYER DEPLETION

This satellite image, of the Antarctic ozone hole was equal to

the record single-day largest area of 11.4 million square miles,
reached on Sept. 9, 2000. Source: NASA
The blue and purple colors are where there is the least ozone.
As a result of the Montreal Protocol, the concentrations of
ozone-depleting substances in the lower atmosphere Sept, 2017
(troposphere) peaked around 1995 and are decreasing in both
the troposphere and stratosphere. However, these ozone-
depleting substances typically have very long lifetimes in the
atmosphere (more than 40 years).
What is the connection between stratospheric ozone depletion
and global warming ?
35
 EVOLUTION OF THE EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE

Q. How did the atmospheric composition evolve into what it is

today?

A. Microbial life

Reference: Kasting, J.F. & Siefert, J.L. (2002). Life and the Evolution of Earth's Atmosphere.
Science. 296(5570), pp. 1066–1068. Retrieved from:
ftp://ftp.soest.hawaii.edu/engels/Stanley/Textbook_update/Science_296/Kasting-02.pdf

36
THE BIOLOGICAL ERA - THE FORMATION OF ATMOSPHERIC OXYGEN

The Earth is about 4.5 billion

years old. Original pre-biotic
atmosphere consisted mainly of
H2O and CO2 and N2 - it was not
suitable for life as we know it.
About 3.5 billion years ago,
oxygenic (oxygen-producing)
photosynthesis evolved in
unicellular cyanobacteria, the
world’s oldest known fossils and
Image source unknown
still one of the most abundant type
of phytoplankton. 37
 CYANOBACTERIA (BLUE-GREEN ALGAE)

Blue-green algae were the principal primary Nice TED talk here on cyanobacteria
producers throughout the Proterozoic Eon
(2500-543 Ma).
Green algae joined blue-greens as major
primary producers on continental shelves near
the end of the Proterozoic, but only during the
Mesozoic (251-65 Ma) with evolution of
dinoflagellates, coccolithophorids, and diatoms
did primary production in marine shelf waters
take modern form.
Cyanobacteria remain critical to marine
ecosystems as primary producers in oceanic
gyres, tropical waters and as agents of
biological nitrogen fixation.

38
Bloom of the cyanobacterium
Trichodesmium off the coast
of central Queensland in 1998

Capone, D.G., Zehr, J., Paerl, H. Bergman B. and

Carpenter, E.J. (1997). Trichodesmium: A globally
significant marine cyanobacterium. Science. 276
(5316), 1221-1229. Retrieved from:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/276/5316/1221 39
ATMOSPHERIC EVOLUTION OCCURRED IN STAGES

First through photolysis of water vapour and CO2 by UV energy and, possibly, lightning:
H2O -> H + OH
produces a hydroxyl radical (OH) and
CO2 -> CO+ O
produces an atomic oxygen (O).
The OH is very reactive and combines with the O
O + OH -> O2 + H
The hydrogen atoms formed in these reactions are light and some small fraction
escape to space allowing the O2 to build to a very low concentration, probably yielding
only about 1% of the O2 available today.
40
 SECOND STAGE

After O2 had accumulated in the stratosphere, it was acted on

by sunlight to form ozone (O3) , which allowed plant
colonization of the land by blocking damage due to UV
radiation.

This stage started ~ 400 million years ago.

41
 THIRD STAGE

Presence of O2 enabled a diversification of metabolic

pathways, leading to a great increase in efficiency.
The bulk of the O2 formed once life began on the planet,
principally through the process of photosynthesis:
6CO2 + 6H2O + light <--> C6H12O6 (glucose) + 6O2
This reaction is reversible, as in the case of respiration or
decay of organic matter which takes up oxygen to form CO2
and water vapour.
42
 FOURTH STAGE – ANTHROPOCENE?

Mammalian evolution lead to the species homo

sapiens……..
And this species is again perturbing the atmosphere.

43
TOPICS COVERED

• Past Climates
• Evolution of the atmosphere
• Human perturbation of the
atmosphere and its impact
on energy balance
• The Anthropocene

44
ANTHROPOGENIC PERTURBATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE

Human activities result in emissions of four principal greenhouse gases: carbon

dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the halocarbons (a
group of gases containing fluorine, chlorine and bromine).
Aerosols (eg from air pollution) have also increased markedly.
Within the last 70 years (an average person's lifetime), the human population
has more than tripled. Our energy, food and space demands as well as the
associated waste products have affected the Earth to such an extent that
humanity may be considered a geophysical force in its own right.
As a result it has been proposed to name the current epoch the ‘Anthropocene’.

45
 46
Source : AR5, WG1, Chpt 2.
 RISE OF THE ANTHROPOCENE

Population increase
accompanied by a
huge change in real
GDP reflecting an
intensified consumer
lifestyle. Note that in
the 200 years since
1800, population
increased by a factor
of 6, but GDP by
about 50, implying
…. ?
47
SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRENDS…. LATE 20 TH C “GREAT
ACCELERATION”

48
Image source unknown
 GHG
story

Collateral damage
– is this
sustainable?

49
Image source unknown
 DANGERS AHEAD?

“Neither climatic nor biogeochemical stability is likely to continue in

the Anthropocene, and the Earth systems we rely on to provide a
liveable environment for human society are likely to become much
less predictable”
Gillings, M.R. &Hagan-Lawson, E.L. (2014). The cost of living in the
Anthropocene, Earth Perspectives, 1(2). Retrieved from:
https://earth-perspectives.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/2194-6434-
1-2

50
 BUT HUMANS COULDN’T POSSIBLY BE CREATING A NEW
GEOLOGICAL AGE….. COULD THEY?

Humanity's total energy use has now exceeded that of the entire
ancient biosphere before oxygenic photosynthesis, reaching about
a tenth of the energy processed by today's biosphere.
83% of the earth's land surface is influenced directly by human
beings, whether through altered land use, roads, railways or major
rivers, electrical infrastructure (indicated by lights detected at
night), or direct occupancy by human beings at densities above 1
person per km2

51
TOPICS COVERED

• Past Climates
• Evolution of the atmosphere
• Human perturbation of the
atmosphere and its impact on
energy balance
• The Anthropocene

52
VISUALISING THE ANTHROPOCENE – THE AGE OF HUMANS

53
https://vimeo.com/39048998
 ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES OF OTHER MAJOR GHGS

CH4: Sources include wetlands, rice agriculture, biomass burning and ruminant
animals. Methane is also emitted by various industrial sources including fossil
fuel mining and distribution.
N2O: The nitrogen rich waters of many rivers, produced by sewage input and
agricultural run-off, lead to eutrophic conditions in estuaries and coastal waters
(almost all the earth’s populated coastal regions are now eutrophic !)
Such nutrient-rich waters and sediments are ideal for denitrification and N2O
production, with oxygen levels in the water often being very low and with plenty
of nitrogen and organic carbon on which the denitrifying bacteria are able to
grow.

54
EXAMPLE OF SEVERE
EUTROPHICATION

An algae covered public

beach in Qingdao,
northeast China's
Shandong province on July
4, 2013

55
Image source unknown
 ATMOSPHERIC RESIDENCE TIMES OF GHGS

The impact of GHGs on the enhanced greenhouse effect is determined

by their atmospheric residence time (ART), defined as the average time
a molecule of a GHG exists in air before it is removed.

Estimates of ART for the various GHGs (except CO2) are obtained with
simple linear models and represent the time that would be required for
removal of 63% of the anthropogenic excess of the material in the
atmosphere, if anthropogenic sources were abruptly diminished to zero.

56
 THE CONCEPT OF RADIATIVE FORCING

The climate system is influenced by different factors:

• in the composition of the atmosphere eg GHGs and aerosols,
• changes in the amount of incoming solar radiation
• changes in surface albedo, etc…..
In order to compare the relative magnitude of these perturbations and to
evaluate their effect on the climate, it is often convenient to analyze their
impact on the radiative balance of the Earth.

57
 58
Image source unknown
 RADIATIVE FORCING

Radiative forcing (measured in Watts/m2) indicates how the energy

balance of the Earth-atmosphere system is influenced when factors that
affect climate are altered, eg solar intensity or GHGs.
The term ‘forcing’ indicates that Earth’s radiative balance is being pushed
away from its previous state.
When RF from a factor or group of factors is positive, the energy of the
Earth system will ultimately increase, leading to a warming.
In contrast, for a negative radiative forcing (eg some aerosols), the
energy will ultimately decrease, leading to a cooling of the earth system.

59
 RADIATIVE FORCING (CONT.)

Radiative forcing (RF) can be related through a linear relationship to the global
mean equilibrium temperature change at the surface (ΔTs):
ΔTs = l (RF)
where l is the climate sensitivity parameter, a very important but still
uncertain parameter !
Whereas the “likely” range for a doubling of [CO2] in AR4 was 2°C-4.5°C, in
AR5 it is 1.5°C-4.5°C.
See this report for more information on how climate sensitivity is estimated.

60
The values represent the effective radiative forcings in 2011 relative to the start of the industrial era. Positive
forcings = warming of climate and negative forcings = cooling. The thin black line attached to each coloured
bar represents the range of uncertainty for the respective value. Source: AR5 61
 THE GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL (GWP)

The contribution of each greenhouse gas to radiative forcing

over a particular period of time is determined by the change in
its concentration in the atmosphere over that period (ART) and
the effectiveness of the gas in perturbing the radiative
balance.

Values are scaled to CO2 which is set to 1.

62
GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL (GWP) RELATIVE TO CO 2

Extract from Table 2.14, IPCC AR4 WG1

63
 GWP AND GTP RELATIVE TO CO 2 =1, FROM AR5

Note the new metric in AR5: Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), is based on the change in GMST at
a chosen point in time, again relative to that caused by the reference gas CO 2 64
GWP AND GTP RELATIVE TO CO 2 =1, FROM AR5 (CONT.)

Note that a substance's GWP depends on the time-span over

which the potential is calculated. A gas which is quickly
removed from the atmosphere may initially have a large effect,
but for longer time periods becomes less important.
Thus methane has a GWP of 84 over 20 years but only 28
over 100 years – note that the GWP for methane reduces at
longer times

65
 TAKE HOMES…

• Paleo climate data offers lots of surprises

• Climate has changed quite abruptly in the past
• The Holocene has been a relatively stable period
• Biology has driven atmospheric changes on geologic time
scales
• Humans are driving rapid change especially since the mid-
20thC, so much so that we could be entering a new epoch.

66
TAKE HOME MESSAGES (CONT.)

Image source unknown

67
THANK YOU
a.gabric@griffith.edu.au