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Smoothing
Smoothing
Pengajar:Gumgum Darmawan,M.Si
Trend and
Stationer Trend Effect Seasonal Effect
Seasonal
Naïve 1
Naïve 2
Naïve 3
MINITAB implementation … (continued)
Naïve 1
Naïve 2
Naïve 3
n
MAD ei / n
i 1
Measuring Forecasting Error …
n
MAPE PEi / n
i 1
n
ei
MPE PEi / n PEi 100
i 1 Xi
Average Methods
1. Simple Averages
obtained by finding the mean for all the relevant values
and then using this mean to forecast the next period.
n Yt
Yt 1
ˆ for stationary data
t 1 n
2. Moving Averages
obtained by finding the mean for a specified set of
values and then using this mean to forecast
the next period.
(Y Y Yt n 1 )
St Yˆt 1 t t 1 for stationary data
n
Moving Average
Average Methods … (continued)
(iii).at 2 St St
2
(iv).bt ( St St )
N 1