Reconciliation

Rustam Shah Muhmand

 Introduction
• The much-trumpeted peace process launched
through the quadrilateral contact group, comprising
Afghanistan, China, Pakistan and the US, appears
to have lost its way. This was not unexpected.
• Surprisingly, in initiating a new effort, no attention
was focused on the causes that led to the failure of
previous such endeavours. The same errors of
judgement were made repeatedly, in the hope of
achieving a different outcome.
 History
• Quite frankly, the history of reconciliation initiatives
over the past few years, have been a monumental
exercise in self-deception, principally on the part of
Kabul and Islamabad.
• The two countries have lived under self-constructed
illusions. Perhaps, the ground realities were too
painful for them either to comprehend or to
incorporate in the strategies they designed to
persuade the Taliban to come to the negotiating table.
 Framework For Negotiations
• Crafting an appropriate framework for
negotiations — one that is acceptable and can
explore some common ground for sustained
dialogue, is, admittedly, not an easy task,
given the complexity of the Afghan imbroglio.
• But some lessons should have been learnt from
past interaction with the leaders of the Taliban
 Taliban Demands
• The standpoint on the release of prisoners and
the scraping of the ‘black lists’ has been a
persistent theme in the response of the Taliban,
to any offer of talks.
• Some gesture could have been made by
releasing just a few detainees. It is standard
procedure for detenus to be released even from
places like Guantanamo or other facilities, from
time to time.
 Taliban Demands
• The request for the scrapping of the black list
that places restrictions on the movement and
travel of the leaders of the Taliban could have
been partially accepted in order to enable some
‘leaders’ to travel and participate in talks.
• Such flexibility could have created a suitable
environment for a consideration of the more
intractable issues like the exit of foreign forces
or the induction of an interim government.
 Taliban Demands
• As the quadrilateral contact group fizzles out, hopes for
reconciliation are fading. The Taliban, buoyed by some
successes in the battlefield and by a growing number of
government troops defecting to them, have taken a hardline
position on peace talks.
• The powerful pro-status quo lobby is also operating to
block any move that would help mainstream the Taliban on
the terms the movement would impose.
• Kabul continues to live under an illusion that with some
incentives being offered, the Taliban would relent in their
attitude and policy and agree to participate in talks.
 Ignoring Ground Realities
• But the government in Kabul, while ignoring ground
realities, is also attempting to create a split in the
ranks of the Taliban.
• To this end, it is promoting a dialogue with such
groups as Hizb-e-Islami.
• People in Afghanistan know that Hizb-e-Islami chief,
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, is no longer part of the
Taliban, but an integral component of the regime —
all top leaders of the party being present in Kabul,
while many occupy government positions.
 Understanding Taliban
• Without understanding the cause, rationale,
raison d’etre of the Taliban, it is inconceivable
that any appropriate and coherent policy could
be put into practice.
• An insurgency that has gone on for 14 years,
confronting the most potent and lethal firepower
of a number of highly developed countries led
by a super power, would certainly be anchored
deep in the aspirations of the people.
 Understanding Taliban
• The argument that the movement has survived
because of continuous support from across the
border i.e., Pakistan, lacks credibility,
particularly in view of Pakistan’s  most
concerted offensive launched against remnants
of the Taliban in Waziristan, two years ago.
• This operation attacked all segments of the
insurgents in the tribal areas, without any
discrimination.
 Understanding Taliban
• Considering that Pakistan has established more than 1,100
security posts along the border to prevent infiltration of all
suspected pro-Taliban volunteers, it is wholly unfair to
assume that Islamabad or its agencies would lend any
covert or overt support, either in providing training,
equipment  or technology to the Taliban.
• Indeed, there are no instances to show that in the last so
many years the coalition forces, or their Afghan partners,
have been able to intercept, confront or attack volunteers
going across the border, to take part in anti-government
fighting.
 The Situation in Afghanistan
• The Taliban could continue fighting without any external
support as has been evident for the last 15 years.
• The situation in Afghanistan continues to worsen. Large
numbers of government troops are defecting.
• More than 250,000 Afghans have left the country posing
as Syrian refugees in the last 15 months.
• Opium production has soared and the number of addicts
has been rising. Many areas are held and administered by
the Taliban. About half the country is under direct or
indirect control of the movement.
 The Situation in Afghanistan
• Fighting rages on in areas such as Herat,
Kundus, Ghazni, Helmand and Nangarhar.
• Daesh is on the retreat, having lost support of
the people, as cash offers to potential volunteers
declined and news of brutalities inflicted on
innocent people spread.
• Daesh is now retreating in its stronghold of
Nangarhar, Kunar, Nuristan — a good omen for
Taliban.
 Ghani’s Government
• In this grim background, support for Ashraf
Ghani’s government is fast disappearing.
• People are losing faith in the ability of the
government to steer the country out of the
perpetuating morass into which it has sunk.
• Ghani’s government has been pressing the US to
continue their military and economic assistance
as well as extending the deployment of the US
forces, indefinitely.
 Ghani’s Government
• But many within the US camp are
disillusioned with the slow progress the
government has been making on such issues as
governance and, more importantly, the
eradication of corruption.
• It is doubtful if the quantum of aid will
continue in the face of the poor performance
of the government and rising levels of
insecurity.
 Genuine Reconciliation
• A genuine reconciliation process can be put back on track
with some structural adjustments to the policy on peace
talks.
• Releasing some prisoners and agreeing to abolish the
black lists after some spade work has been done, would
create a conducive environment for peace parleys to begin.
• It is not entirely clear why there is such inexplicably tough
resistance to consider setting free a few detenus and lifting
the ban on some others to be able to travel and take part in
the negotiations.
 Genuine Reconciliation
• Unless this attitude changes, it is difficult to
foresee any breakthrough being made in the
peace talks in the near future.
• If and when peace negotiations get underway,
after the concerns of the Taliban have been
met, progress towards addressing the core
issues would present formidable challenge.
 Genuine Reconciliation
• But as engagement with the Taliban deepens in
the wake of reconciliation talks, suspicions
would begin to vanish, gradually, and in a
climate of trust and understanding the talks
could move to a level where the more
contentious issues, like the complete
withdrawal of foreign forces, could be
addressed.
 Genuine Reconciliation
• To set the ball rolling is critical. The four nations
involved in the ‘quadrilateral process’ — rather  than
holding meaningless parleys amongst themselves,
may better focus on finding a way out of the impasse
by moving forward on the two issues of releasing the
detainees and abolishing the black lists.
• The reality and the inevitability of the Taliban being
mainstreamed, under certain conditions, has  to be
accepted for a sustainable solution. The signs are
ominous.
 Genuine Reconciliation
• The so called ‘unity government’ is,  in fact, a
fractured alliance that demonstrates lack of
resolve and commitment on the one hand and
a lack of competence on the other; more
importantly, it looks for a ‘messiah’ at all
times, to rescue it from impending disasters.
Such a shakey dispensation cannot deliver in
such turbulent times.