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EN0625 Design and Manufacturing Analysis

INTRODUCTION TO
RELIABILITY
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Learning outcomes
By the end of this session you should be able
to understand:
•The principles of reliability in “Mechatronic”
systems
•Reliability approach
•Reliability calculation
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Structure of this session

1. Introduction of reliability
2. Factors that affect reliability
3. Reliability approach
4. Reliability analysis of electronic components
and subsystems based on MTBF
5. Tutorials
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Reliability
• The probability that no (system) failure will occur in a
given time interval.

• Reliability = probability that an item will not fail

Reliability = 1- Probability of failure
Probability of failure = (Uptime before failure occurs
/ Mean Time Between Failure)

• A reliable system is one that meets the specifications

Do you accept this?
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What do Reliability Engineers Do?

Implement Reliability Engineering Programs across all
functions
• Engineering
• Research
• Manufacturing (Processes / Materials flow / Human
errors)
• Testing
• Packaging
• Field service
Nokia Reliability Test
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Examples of Mechatronic Products

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Three Classifications of Reliability

Failure

Type Old Remedy- Repair mentality

• Early (infant mortality) • Burn-in

• Wearout (physical • Maintenance

degradation)

• Chance (overstress) • In service testing

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Early product failure

• Strongest effect on customer satisfaction

• The most expensive to repair

•Why?
•In particularly in high volume products
•Long C/T (cycle time)
•Affect the entire production system
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Early Product Failure

• Can be catastrophic for human life
• Challenger (28/01/1986), Columbia
(01/02/2003)
• Titanic (15/04/1912 – 1502 deaths)
• DC 10
• Automotive design
• Aircraft Engine
• Military equipment
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Early failure causes or infant

mortality
Occur at the beginning of life and then
disappear….

•Manufacturing Escapes
• workmanship/handling
• process control
• materials
• contamination
•Improper installation
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Wear-out
Occur late in life and increase with age
•Aging (e.g. military electronic systems)
•Degradation in strength
•Materials Fatigue (caused by stress …)
• Creep (gradually deform …)
•Corrosion
•Poor maintenance
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Chance Failures
Occur throughout the life a product at a
constant rate

•Insufficient safety factors in design

•Higher than expected random loads
•Human errors
•Misapplication
•……
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Bathtub Curve
Reliability analysis require failure rate data for all components or
subsystems

Infant Useful life Wear out

Mortality No memory
No improvement
Failure Rate No wear-out
#/million hours Random causes

Time
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Factors that Affect Reliability

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Failure Effects
(What customer experiences)

• Noise • Excessive effort

• Inoperability requirements
• Instability • Unpleasant or unusual
• Intermittent operation odor
• Poor appearance
• Difficult to Control
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Reliability as a function of System

Complexity
Computer Example
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Influences on reliability
• Hardware reliability
• What is the probability of a
hardware component failing and
how long does it take to repair
that component?
• Software reliability
• How likely is it that a software
component will produce an
incorrect output.
• Software failure is usually distinct
from hardware failure in that
software does not wear out.
• Operator reliability
• How likely is it that the operator of
a system will make an error?
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A Typical Example of the Bathtub Curve for a

WT
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Reliability relationships
• Hardware failure can
generate spurious (false)
signals that are outside the
range of inputs expected by
the software
• Software errors can cause
alarms to be activated which
cause operator stress and
lead to operator errors
• The environment (e.g.
temperature) in which a
system is installed can affect
its reliability
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Systems and their environment

• Environment affects
the functioning of
the system e.g.
system may require
electrical supply
from its
environment
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Reliability Approach …
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Failure Modes

• Cracking • Sticking
• Deformation • Electrical shorts
• Wear • Electrical opens
• Corrosion • Oxidation (Chemical reaction)
• Loosening • Vibration
• Leaking • Fracturing

Reliability Test in Electronics

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Reliability Prevention
• Early • Robust Design / Quality
manufacture

• Wear out • Physically-based models,

preventative maintenance,
Robust design (FMEA)

• Chance • Tight customer linkages,

testing
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Reliability Approach
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Reliability Approach
• Event Tree Analysis (ETA) is a graphical representation of
the logic model that identifies and quantifies the possible
outcomes following an initiating event.
• Event tree analysis provides an inductive approach to reliability
assessment as they are constructed using forward logic.
• Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) constructed by defining top
events and then use backward logic to define causes.
• A failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), is a
procedure in analysing of potential failure modes within a
system and to identify the root causes.
• The main goal is to identify and then limit or avoid risk within a design.
• Human Factor Analysis identifies the issues and risks which
influence safety, human performance.
Reliability Predictions
• Common Standards
• MIL-HDBK-217
• Generally associated with military systems
• Models are very detailed
• Provides for many environments
• Provides multiple quality levels
• Bellcore (Telcordia)
• Telecommunications Industry standard
• Seems to have supplanted French CNET and British Telcom standards
• Models patterned after MIL-HDBK-217, but simplified
• Provides multiple quality levels
• Can incorporate current laboratory test data
• Can incorporate current field performance data
• Other Standards
• Auto Industry
• Resources
• Software packages cover both MIL-HDBK-217 and Bellcore models
• RELEX is widely available
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Reliability Analysis of electronic

components and subsystems
based on MTBF
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Mean Time Between Failure

(MTBF)

• The MTBF is the sum of the operational periods divided by

the number of observed failures. If the "Down time" (with
space) refers to the start of "downtime" (without space) and
"up time" (with space) refers to the start of "uptime" (without
space), the formula will be:
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Reliability Calculation …
• Based on MIL-STD-217

• MTBF value prediction is an

important element in the
• Takes account of environmental &
development of products.
other stresses
• p = bQEA …… (also know as • Reliability engineers / design
Weibull Reliability model – engineers, often utilize
components/systems failing due to Reliability Software to
fatigue) calculate products' MTBF
where: according to various
b = Base failure rate methods/standards (MIL-
Q = Quality factor HDBK-217F, Telcordia
E = Environmental factor SR332,
A = Application stress factor, Etc.
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Reliability Calculation …
• Under certain engineering assumptions (e.g. besides the
above assumptions for a constant failure rate, the
assumption that the considered system has no relevant
redundancies).
• The failure rate for a complex system is simply the sum
of the individual failure rates of its components, as long
as the units are consistent, e.g. failures per million hours.
• This permits testing of individual components or
subsystems, whose failure rates are then added to obtain
the total system failure rate.
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Samples - Failure Rates of Electronic

Components
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Reliability Calculation …con-t

MTBF = 1
p
e.g. MTBF = 10,000hrs
•What is the Probability of Failure in 1,000hrs ?

•Probability of Failure = Uptime before failure occurs

MTBF
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Samples - Failure Rates of Wind Turbine subsystems

Component Failure rates Reliability
Tip Brake 1.000 x 10-4 R = 0.53340
Yaw Bearing 0.115 x 10-4 R = 0.90130
Generator 0.769 x 10 -6 R = 0.99305
Gearbox 0.630 x 10-6 R = 0.99440
Magnetic Breaks 0.560 x 10-6 R = 0.98500

Parking Brake 2.160 x 10-6 R = 0.99900

Blades 1.116 x 10-5 R = 0.90680
Bolts 1.116 x 10-5 R = 0.90680
Hub 1.116 x 10-5 R = 0.90680
Tower and Anchor 1.000 x 10-7 R = 0.99970
Bolts

Reference: Muhammad Mohsin K Khan, (2005), “Reliability Analysis And Condition

Monitoring of a Horizontal Axis Wind Turbine”, MEng Thesis, Memorial University
of Newfoundland, CANADA.
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Example Tutorial

If R = 0.5334 (Tip Brake)

What is the Uptime before
failure occurs for the Tip
Brake?
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Example Tutorial
Solutions …

If R = 0.5334 (Tip Brake)

•R= 1- Probability of Failure
•Probability of Failure = Uptime before failure occurs
MTBF
•Probability of Failure = 1 – R =0.4666
•MTBF = 1 / Failure rate = 1/ 1.000 x 10-4= 10,000
•Uptime before failure occurs = 10,000 * 0.4666 =
4666 hrs = 194.42 days = 6.48 months
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A Typical Wind Turbine’s Breakdown Structure

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Reliability Analysis - Reliability Block diagrams

RSystem = RRotor x RDrive Train x RSupport x RController

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Example of calculating Re of a WT …

Assuming that the reliability rate of the ‘Controller’ is = 0.9999, with the given
information from the table: The System reliability can be calculated as:
RRotor = 0.985 x 0.9068 x 0.9068 = 0.80995
RDrive train = 0.999 x 0.9944 x 0.99305 = 0.9865
RSupport = 0.903 x 0.9997 = 0.90273
Thus the overall system reliability = 0.80995 x 0.9865 x 0.90273 x 0.9999 = 0.7212
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How to Maximise Reliability ?

•Minimise component count
•Buy approved, certified or military
components (wider temperature range)
•Derate components (halving the stress can
reduce some component failure rate by ten
fold)
•Maintain operational temperature between
10-25oC
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Other “best practices”

• Fewer Components
• Small Batch Size
• Better material selection
• Parallel Testing
• Starting Earlier
• Module to systems test allocation
• Predictive (Duane) testing
• Look for past experience
• emphasize re-use
• Over-design
• e.g. power modules
• Best: Understand the physics of the failure and model
• e.g. Crack propagation in airframes or nuclear reactors
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Manufacturing VS Reliability
 Cost of Quality  Lateness of product to
 warranty liabilities due to market
field failures;  lock up 80% of
 redesign; rework; and business.
scrap costs.
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Summary …
1. Introduction of reliability
2. Product failures and reliability
3. Failure modes and Reliability approach
4.Reliability analysis of electronic components
and subsystems based on MTBF
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References / Recommend Reading

• http://www.weibull.com/SystemRelWeb/availability.htm

• Operational Availability Handbook, A Practical Guide for Military Systems,

Sub-Systems and Equipment, June 2003, pages:98.

• P. J. Tavner and J. P.Xiang. Wind turbine reliability, how does it compare

with other embedded generation sources. Proceedings of RTDN conference,
London., 2005.

• SR-332, (2005), “Reliability Prediction Procedure for Electronic

Equipment”, Telcordia Technologies, Issue 2.0.

• MIL-HDBK-217
– IEC-62380, (2004), Reliability Data Handbook - A Universal Model for
Reliability Prediction of Electronic Components, PCBs and Equipment,
American National Standards Institute, TR Edition 1.0.
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Tutorial - Reliability Example 1

Reliability Rate
Generator 0.99305

Gear box 0.99440

Blades 0.9068

• What is the turbine’s overall reliability rate?

• Which one is the most problematic subsystem and why?
• How much does it cost to maintain the turbine if an average
down time of the turbine is 3 days? Assuming that a
technician‘s labour rate is £35/hr and he only works from 9am
to 5pm. Parts and materials cost will not be taking account.
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Tutorial - Reliability Example 1

Reliability Rate
Generator 0.99305

Gear box 0.99440

Blades 0.9068

• What is the turbine’s overall reliability rate? 0.8954

• Which one is the most problematic subsystem and why?
The blades because it has a higher “probability of failure”
or its reliability is the lowest
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Tutorial - Reliability Example 1

Reliability Rate
Generator 0.99305

Gear box 0.99440

Blades 0.9068

• How much does it cost to maintain the turbine if an average

down time of the turbine is 3 days? Assuming that a
technician‘s labour rate is £35/hr and he only works from 9am
to 5pm. Parts and materials cost will not be taking account.
(Ans = 35 * 24 = £840)
Maintenance cost = replacement charge rate
x mean down time
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Tutorial - Reliability Example 2

Calculating the Uptime of the overall system

What will be the Uptime of the overall system if R = 0.7213

(Overall system)?
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Solution
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Tutorial - Reliability Example 3

1.Name THREE ways to Maximise Reliability?
2.Draw the Bathtub curve (by hand). Briefly explain what is the
purpose of the Bathtub curve and its associated stages.

Answer:
1.Any THREE of below:
•Minimise component count
•Buy approved, certified or military components (wider temperature
range)
•Derate components (halving the stress can reduce some component
failure rate by ten fold)
•Maintain operational temperature between 10-25 oC
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Tutorial - Reliability Example 3

Answer:
2.