The Analysis of Foreign

Policy
Prepared by: Mikael Dominik Abad
Enduring question: What factors
most influence the foreign
policies of states
Learning Objectives
By the end of this chapter, you will be able to:
→ Compare the study of international relations and the analysis of
foreign policy, and appreciate how both are necessary to understand
international affairs.
→ Identify the two core attributes, interests and strategies, of any
country’s foreign policy.
→ Analyze the range of policy instruments that a country may utilize in
its foreign policy.
Introduction
• China was allied to the Soviet Union during the 1950s where they
fought together against their geopolitical adversary, the United
States. (Korean War)

• China did not even have diplomatic relations with the United States
until the 1970s. Yet, by the end of the 1960s, Chinese foreign policy
changed and China’s leaders came to view the Soviet Union more as
an adversary than as an ally.

• China and the Soviet Union fought a border war in 1969.

Introduction
• By the 1980s, China not only established diplomatic relations, but
moved closer to its former adversary, the United States, politically
and economically.

• Today, China enjoys cordial political relations, and limited economic

relations, with Russia.

• It has close economic relations with the United States; in fact the two
countries are highly dependent on each other commercially and
financially.
Introduction
• However, China’s political relations with the United States are
changing again, and have become significantly colder. Many believe
the two countries are emerging as geopolitical competitors as they
compete for influence in the South China Sea and in East Asia more
generally.
The Study of International Relations and
the Analysis of Foreign Policy
• In general, scholars of international relations are interested in
interactions between two or more states, and particularly in why some of
those interactions are cooperative while others are competitive and may
even end in war.

• Foreign policy analysts want to understand why a given country’s

government has decided to take certain actions toward foreign
governments or foreign non-state actors; why a government has decided
that specific foreign policy interests are important to it; and why it has
crafted a particular strategy to promote or defend those interests.
Kyoto Protocol of 1997
• The negotiation requires adherents (more than 191 states plus the
European Union by the fall of 2012) to reduce greenhouse gases that
contribute to global climate change.

• A scholar of international relations would be interested in the

international dynamics that brought the Kyoto Protocol into being.
-was the protocol attained? (Powerful countries bullied weaker
countries into accepting it) (non-state actors like global scientific
community and NGOs persuaded national leaders that global warming
was a real threat and must be addressed through international
agreement.
Kyoto Protocol of 1997
• A student of foreign policy might also be interested in how the Kyoto
Protocol came about, but would focus on the decisions of specific
countries on whether or not to adhere to it.
-why did President Bill Clinton’s administration help negotiate the Kyoto
Protocol in 1997 and signed the instrument in late 1998, but the Clinton
team never submitted the Protocol to the US Senate for ratification,
which the US Constitution requires in order for any treaty to come into
force for the United States.
-why China and India, industrializing countries that produce significant
amounts of greenhouse gases, were willing to sign and ratify an
agreement that promised to constrain their future economic behavior.
The Study of International Relations and
the Analysis of Foreign Policy
• Foreign policy analysts understand that a country’s international
context matters a great deal when its leaders identify interests and
formulate strategies.

• In turn, Students of international relations recognize that the

international interactions of governments have firm roots in the
foreign policies of the countries involved in those interactions.
Foreign Policy Interests
• An interest is a situation in the world that the leaders of a government want
to exist, so much so that they are willing to pay costs to bring it about.

• There are trade-offs between interests; the pursuit of one requires giving up
the pursuit of another.

• For example, the extension of Democracy and Human rights to China is a US

interest. However, American leaders should decrease their efforts to bring
internal change in China if they want to get Chinese cooperation to advance
other US interests. (ex: stabilization and growth of international economy,
finding solution to climate change, and management of numerous
international security issues)
Aspiration vs reality: US Foreign Policy toward China, 2009
Aspiration vs reality: US Foreign Policy toward China, 2009
Aspiration vs reality: US Foreign Policy toward China, 2009
Foreign Policy Strategy
 Instruments of Persuasion

1. Diplomacy is the process by which representatives of two or more governments

meet and discuss matters of common concern either bilaterally or in a multilateral
forum.

• During these meetings, the representatives seek to persuade each other of the
merits of their respective positions.

• These representatives may be ambassadors, ministerial-rank officials, secretaries

of external affairs or may be the heads of states.

• Example: Iran agreed to freeze temporarily much of its Nuclear program and in
exchange the P5 plus Germany agreed to grant Iran limited relief from
international economic sanctions.
 Instruments of Persuasion

2. Economic incentives are basically carrots: country A promises some

economic gain to B, and delivers it if B does what A wants it to do.

• For example, West Germany extended very substantial economic aid to the
Soviet Union to help facilitate Soviet acceptance in 1990 of the absorption of
East Germany into West Germany (Newnham 2002).

• The European Union provided economic assistance to members such as

Greece, Ireland, and Portugal to help those members meet their short-term
funding requirements in the midst of the economic crisis that began in 2008,
but on condition that they undertake internal reforms that will make them
more competitive and self-supporting in the future.
 Instruments of Coercion

1. Economic sanctions are basically sticks: A threatens B with some form of economic
loss if B does something A does not want it to do, or fails to do something A wants it
to do.

• The imposition of tariffs or quotas on goods imported from a target country, the
boycotting of purchases of particular goods from suppliers from the target country, or
the seizure of financial assets owned by target country residents that are held in the
initiating country’s banks or other financial institutions.

• Example: the United States and member countries of the European Union began a
boycott of purchases of oil from Iran, and a prohibition of financial transactions with
Iran’s central bank, in an effort to compel that country to negotiate an end to its efforts
to build nuclear weapons.
 Instruments of Coercion

2. Propaganda is the selective use of information, and at times misinformation,

in order to advance a country’s interests.

• Propaganda is frequently used as a tool to mobilize one’s own population or

to demoralize other populations in times of conflict or war.

• Example: During the Cold War, the United States used government-sponsored
radio stations (Radio Liberty and Radio Free Europe) in an effort to influence
the communist-controlled populations of the Soviet Union and Eastern
Europe.
 Instruments of Coercion

3. Covert operations are activities that a government directs against the

interests of another government or non-state actor in such a way that the
foreign targets and others are kept from knowing that the initiating
government is responsible for the activities.

• Example: In May 2011, the United States killed Al Qaeda leader Osama bin
Laden as the culmination of a covert operation in Pakistan, and did not inform
the Pakistani government until after the actual raid against bin Laden’s
compound was completed, leading to a serious diplomatic rift between the
two countries
 Instruments of Coercion

4. Coercive diplomacy – actions short of the immediate large-scale use of

military force such as moving an aircraft carrier closer to the shores of
another country to help convince it to rethink some behavior.

Example: US navy sending its carrier strike group fleet to South China Sea to
exercise its freedom of navigation in spite of China’s warning.

5. Direct use of military force

• During 2001 and 2002, the United States used a combination of covert
operations, air strikes, and ground forces to help local Afghan factions topple
the Taliban authorities, forcing Al Qaeda to retreat to the west of Pakistan.