MANAGERIAL DECISION

MAKING
 INDIVIDUAL DECISION MAKING
Pengambilan Keputusan Manajerial yang
dilakukan oleh Seorang Manajer.
 GROUP DECISION MAKING
Pengambilan Keputusan Manajerial yang
dilakukan oleh suatu kelompok atau level
manajemen.
 Masalah Keputusan Terstruktur
(Structured Problem)
- Algoritma Pemecahan Sudah Jelas
 Masalah Keputusan Tidak Terstruktur
(Unstructured Problem)
- Algoritma Pemecahan Tidak Jelas.
 TOP : Mostly Unstructured Problem
 MIDDLE : Balance
 LOWER : Mostly Structured Problem
1. Quality of the Decision
2. Acceptance of the Decision
3. Ethical Justness of the Decision
 Define The Problem
 Criteria Identification
 Criteria Weighting
 Alternative Generation
 Rating each Alternative
 Computing the Optimal Decision
 Intelligent
 Design
 Choice
 Implementation
 Perfectly Defining the Problem
 Identifying All Criteria
 Accurately Weighting All Criteria
 Knowing All Relevant Alternatives
 Accurately Assessing each Alternatives
on each Criteria
 Accurately Choosing The Highest
 Lack of Information
 Time and Cost Constraints
 Perception Biases
 Limitation of Usable Memory
 Intelligent Constraints in Calculating
 THE AVAILABILITY HEURISTICS
Ketersediaan Informasi dalam memori
 THE REPRESENTATIVENESS
HEURISTICS
Kesamaan Masalah
 ANCHORING & ADJUSTMENT
HEURISTICS
1. Informasi yang mudah diingat
kembali
2. Informasi yang mudah dicari
3. Korelasi Maya (Illusory Correlation)
 Tidak sensitif terhadap kemungkinan
suatu hasil (outcomes)
 Tidak sensitif terhadap ukuran sample
 Miskonsepsi tentang “Chance”
 Regresi ke Arah Rata-rata
 Adjustment yang tidak memadai
 Overconfidence
 Hubungan yang keliru
 Konfirmasi yang Menjebak
 Warning about the possibility of bias
 Describing the direction of the bias
 Providing a dose of feedback
 Offering extended program of training to
improve judgment.
 Eskalasi : Bertahan, “ngotot”
 Ada 2 Macam :
1. The Unilateral Escalation Paradigm
Bertahan pada satu keputusan yang keliru,
karena masih yakin benar
2. The Competitive Escalation Paradigm
Bertahan pada satu keputusan yang keliru
karena tidak mau kalah.
 Perceptual Biases
 Judgmental Biases
 External Management : “Safe Face”
 Competitive Irrationality
 Set limit on your involvement and
commitment in advance.
 Avoid looking to other people to see what
you should do.
 Actively determine why you are
continuing.
 Remind your self of the cost involved
 Type of Problem or task
 Acceptance of Decision
 Characteristics of Individuals
 Climate of the Decision Making
 Amount of time available
 BRAINSTORMING / SYNECTICS
 NOMINAL GROUP TECHNIQUE
 DELPHI TECHNIQUE
 CONSENSUS MAPPING
 Multiple Knowledge & Skills
 Expedites Acceptance
 Generally Higher Quality Decision
 Increase Commitment
 More Time
 Ignore Individual Expertise
 Satisfices
 Encourages Riskier Decision
 Create Groupthink
 Stereotypes
 Pressure
 Self-Censorship
 Mindguards