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PL 4201 - TAA - Kuliah 7 Makna Praktik Perencanaan Masa Depan
PL 4201 - TAA - Kuliah 7 Makna Praktik Perencanaan Masa Depan
PL 4201 - TAA - Kuliah 7 Makna Praktik Perencanaan Masa Depan
Perencanaan
Makna Praktek & Masa
Depan
TAA
Tujuan Perencanaan:
• membuat keputusan yang
mengarahkan kegiatan di
masa depan – agar menjadi
lebih sejahtera dan baik
ACSP identifikasi 6 topik
menentukan identitas
planning (1997):
• Human settlements
• Interconnections
• Masa depan
• Diversity
• Open participation
• Menghubungkan pengetahuan
dan tindak
Masa Depan:
• Kesejahteraan (wellbeing)
• Keadilan sosial (social justice)
• Kesetaraan (equity)
Ke tukang Ramal
San Francisco, 2108
source:
iwamotoscottarchitect
Dubai Waterfront
Kata kata untuk
mendeskripsikan Masa
Depan
• Extrapolasi
• Proyeksi
• Prediksi
• Estimasi
• Forecasting / peramalan
• Ekspektasi
Extrapolating the Future
• # of population: female vs male
• Population pyramids
Perbedaan Forecasting dan
Prediksi (versi statistik)
Forecasting
Prediction
1. Forecasting involves the projection of 1. Prediction involves judgment in
the past into the future. management after taking all available
2. Forecast involves estimating the level of information into account.
demand of a product on the basis of 2. Prediction involves the anticipated change
factors that generated the demand in the into the future. It may include even new
past maths. factors that may affect future demand.
3. Forecasting is more scientific. 3. Prediction is more intuitive.
4. It is relatively free from personal bias. 4. It is more governed by personal bias and
preferences.
5. It is more objective
5. It is more subjective.
6. It is generally called as “Throw Ahead”
technique. 6. It is generally called as “Saying
Beforehand” technique.
7. Error analysis is possible
7. Prediction does not contain error analysis.
8. Forecasting is reproducible, i.e., every
8. It is non-producible
time same result would be obtained by
any particular technique.
Earthquake Forecasting
Dictionary
While the dictionary defines forecasting to be a synonym for
prediction, we consider forecasting to be a specification of
the odds, or probability, of an earthquake occurring at a
given location, during a given time window, within a given
magnitude range. By contrast, we consider a prediction to
be the specification that an earthquake either will, or will not,
occur at a given location, during a given time window, within
a given magnitude range. A forecast is therefore a
statement of probability, whereas a prediction is a binary
statement. An individual forecast can never be validated by
a single observation, but a forecast method can be validated
by many observations. By contrast, an individual prediction
can be validated by a single observation.”
Forecast /Peramalan
• Ramalan Cuaca, Ramalan
Hujan Angin (weather forecast,
hurricane forecast)
• Probability, but not specificity
Visioning
Pendekatan tradisional
(b) vs adaptive (a)
Perencanaan Perencanaan
Modern komunikatif:
• Expertise • Ahli dan fakta
bersikap netral saling
& peran: berkompetisi
menyampaikan • Kerangka
‘fakta’ berpikirnya
• Peran sains: juga berbeda
sumber
legitimasi
Persoalan dlm Mengamati
Masa Depan:
1. Konsekuensi tindak
perencanaan tidaklah pasti
• Kebenaran:
– Universal,
– Spesifik (peta, struktur DNA)
Semangat Inklusifitas:
• Mahasiswa berasal dari
Papua, Kalimantan, keturunan
Cina
• Muslim keturunan
Perlakuan Teori
Perencanaan thd Praktek
• Adanya teori:
– Pengetahuan – tindak
– Teori – praktek
– Batas batas praktek
• Peran Teori Perencanaan:
– Membuat pengetahuan yg
relevan dan berguna utk
mempengaruhi praktek
– Memberi arah pada praktek
Apa yang dilakukan oleh
Teori Perencanaan?
• Mensistematisasi dan
memastikan yg tadinya ad hoc
• Menginstitutionalisasi kegiatan
kerjasama antar disipline, dan
mempermanenkan inquiry
antar disipline
• Memperkenalkan seni dan
sains kerjasama
Epistemologi Teori
Perencanaan
• Persoalan interrelasi – wicked
problems (Rittel and Weber
1973)
• Pendekatan system (Churchman
1979)
• General theory of planning
(Mandelbaum 1979)
• Rigour vs relevance (Schon
1983)
Modes of Theorizing
• Structural / • Purposeful / goals/
means/ consequences
methods • Fact-value distinction
• Similarities on blurs.
applied rationality • Postmo: diminishing
• not about ethics, importance of
not about morals justification
and goods/rights • Focus on
consequenes and
• E.g. Friedmann
purposes rather than
causes and methods