Long- term Agriculture performance and drought vulnerability

in present and future climate in Telangana, India

Presenter: Prof. P.S. Roy,

NASI Platinum Jubilee Fellow,
Centre for Earth and Space Sciences,
University of Hyderabad,
Hyderabad.
Research Question:
• Will monsoonal precipitation have an impact on
winter and summer agriculture performance?
• Can Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Satellite Derived
Vegetation Indices and Climatic Variables be used
Research work
for vulnerability of droughts? P. Bhavani, NASI-SRF,
Ph.D Research Scholar,
Reg. no: 14ESPE02
Centre for Earth and Space Sciences.
University of Hyderabad.
 1.5 Long-term 115 years rainfall anomaly
Long- term Climate 1

Anomaly in Telangana 0.5

Rainfall
0
R² = 0.01

-0.5
 A slight increase in -1

rainfall anomaly. -1.5

1901 1906 1911 1916 1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
 We notice increase in YEARS

extreme negative
Anomaly rainfall vs temperature
anomalies; 12

10
1.5

1
 An increase in long-

Temperature
8 0.5

term maximum Rainfall 6 0

4 -0.5
temperature anomaly 2 -1

from 1970 onwards 0 -1.5

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Rainfall anom_TS YEARS

MinT anom Max T anom

Extreme –ve anomaly Extreme +ve anomaly

• Drought in India has resulted in tens of
millions of deaths over the course of the 18th,
19th, and 20th centuries.
• Telangana agriculture is heavily dependent on
the climate of India: a favorable southwest
summer monsoon is critical in securing water
for irrigations and rain fed crops;
• In 67% of agriculture area in India is rain-fed
(63% in Telangana), hence failure of the
monsoons result in below-average crop
yields.

Source: http://www.civilsdaily.com/blog/indian-agriculture-104-everything-
Source : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drought_in_India
that-you-need-to-know-about-drought-management-in-india/
Study Area:

Cropping seasons

Summer Winter/ Summer/

monsoon/ October- February-
June- January May
September
Data used & Satellite Climate data Irrigation data
Methodology • Net irrigation
MODIS GIMMS •
1982- 2000 2000-2015 Surface water
NDVI NDVI irrigation
2001-2015 1982- 2000 •
Precipitation; Ground water
Maximum Temperature; irrigation
Minimum Temperature.

Non-agriculture
Stacking of three cropping season NDVI Stacking of three cropping season
mask

Hierarchal Extraction Dev NDVI & Precipitation Max Temp Min Temp Simple & Multiple
classification method crop/non crop VCI linear regression
SPI

SM NDVI S NDVI Frequency Driving

W NDVI
and Parameter of
Magnitude NDVI versus
Ratio Crop Area of Drought rainfall &
Crop Area (%) irrigation sources
(%) Fluctuation

1982-2000 Agriculture 2000-2015 Crop stress/

drought condition drought condition
SM: Summer monsoon; W: Winter season; S: Summer season; NDVI: Normalized Differential Vegetation Index; VCI: Vegetation
Condition Index; Dev NDVI: Deviation of NDVI; Max Temp: Maximum Temperature; Min Temp: Minimum Temperature
 Agricultural drought assessment and Crop stress performed using following indices:

𝑋𝑖 − 𝑀𝑎𝑥 𝑋𝑖𝑗
  ; 𝑏  . 𝑉𝐶𝐼 =
1. Conventional method to assess the drought/vegetation 𝑀𝑖𝑛 𝑋𝑖𝑗+𝑀𝑎𝑥 𝑋𝑖𝑗
condition. 𝑋𝑖 − 𝑋𝑚
𝑐  . 𝑆𝑃𝐼 =
𝜎

𝑁𝑜 . 𝑜𝑓 𝑁𝑒𝑔𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑁𝐷𝑉𝐼𝐷𝑒𝑣 𝑝𝑖𝑥𝑒𝑙𝑠

𝑎  . 𝑁𝐷𝑉𝐼𝐷𝑒𝑣 %= ∗ 100
2. Percentage of deviation of NDVI derived of the 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑜 . 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑖𝑥𝑒𝑙
agricultural area to assess the frequency of stress
b.
 

3. Assess the percentage of potential cultivable area  

4. Capture the sensitivity of crop stress variability   𝐶𝐴𝐹 ( % )= 𝐶𝐴 %  𝑚𝑎𝑥

𝑅
𝐶𝐴 %  𝑚𝑖𝑛
Note: Vegetation condition Index (VCI) captures the only maximum vegetation stress condition. 95% of significant
relation exist with deviation of NDVI.

 
 1st objective Results:
The major results presented are in following section.
 1982-2000 (GIMMS NDVI):
• Seasonal pattern of GIMMS NDVI with precipitation of
undivided state (TSAP).
 2000-2015 (MODIS NDVI)
• Seasonal ratio of crop fluctuation (%) at district wise.
• Signification relation of agricultural performance with
precipitation and irrigation sources.
• Spatial distribution of crop performance.

Article published: Bhavani P; Chakravathi V; P S Roy et al. 2016. Long-term agricultural performance and climate variability for drought
assessment: A regional study from Telangana and Andhra Pradesh states, India. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk.
 Deviation of NDVI vs SPI
0.05 1.5

• During the summer monsoon, the deviation of 0.03 1

the NDVI closely follows the pattern of the 0.5

0.01
corresponding SPI except during 1999–2000,

Dev NDVI
0

SPI
-0.01
where an abrupt raise in the NDVI is noticed -0.5
from August to because of the impact of rainfall. -0.03 -1

-0.05 -1.5
• During winter and summer the NDVIDev 1982 83- 84- 85- 86- 87- 88- 89- 90- 91- 92- 93- 94- 95- 96- 97- 98- 99-
-83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00

% R a tio o f C r o p a r e a F lu c tu a tio n
follows the pattern of monsoons SPI YEARS
SM DevNDVI W DevNDVI S DevNDVI S SPI W SPI SM_SPI

• The maximum observed fluctuation at the state

level is 79%, during the summer monsoon,
followed by summer (57%) and winter (7%).
Ratio of Crop Area Fluctuation
100
• These fluctuations are primarily due to the 80
80 82 80 77
56
60 51
variation in precipitation and availability of soil 40 35
25 25
36
29
20 8 8 6
moisture (Komuscu et al. 1999; Mahmudul Alam 2 4 2 3 2 1 2 5 7 1 6 4 2
0

et al. 2011 and Yinhong Kang et al. 2009).

DISTRICT
SM RCF % W RCF% S RCF%
Yearly seasonal relation of NDVI vs
Years R2 Monsoon Remarks Winter Remarks Summer Remarks
rainfall and water resources: Rain R2 Multiple R2 Multiple
• During summer monsoon, the state Regression Regression
NDVI showed a 95% (p<0.05) 2000-2001  WNDVI vs MR  
significant relation with the summer 0.59* 0.87* and WR 0.79*  
monsoon rainfall in most of the years, 2001-2002 WNDVI vs  
except 2001–2002, 2009-2010 and MR and WR  
2014-2015. 0.17*** 0.44*** and NIA 0.46*
 
2002-2003  
0.56* 0.39** 0.40*
• There was no significant relation  
2003-2004 0.55* 0.97* 0.79*
normal and best monsoonal years. MNDVI SNDVI vs
2004-2005 0.74* vs MR 0.89* 0.69*
Annual
2005-2006 0.53*   0.44* 0.65*
• Winter crop season, shows a 95% Total Rain
2006-2007 0.36* 0.67* 0.68* and NIA
significant relationship with 2007-2008 0.06 0.20 0.50*
monsoonal precipitation. WNDVI vs MR
2008-2009 0.53* 0.81* 0.67*
and WR and SW
2009-2010 0.17*** 0.04   0.27
• Except the drought years with addition 2010-2011 0.05 0.64** 0.85*
irrigation sources. 2011-2012 0.37* 0.70*
0.70*
2012-2013 0.21* 0.86** 0.68*
• Summer cropping periods, depends on
2013-2014 0.01 0.22 0.12
the total monsoon precipitation and
2014-2015 0.19*** 0.69* 0.08
irrigation facility.
*: 95 % confidence level (p<0.05), **: 90 confidence level (p<0.10), *** :85%; No significant
• MNDVI: Monsoon NDVI, WNDVI :Winter NDVI, SNDVI: Summer NDVI,MR: Monsoon Rain, WR; Winter Rain, SW: Surface Water NIA: Net Irrigated Area.
 a) a) b) b)
Spatial and temporal
distribution of extreme &
severe dry; and normal &
extreme good crop area a) a) b) b)
years during 2000-2015 (a)
summer monsoon; (b) winter;
and (c) summer season.
c) c)

c) c)
% C ro p p ed a rea

2000-2015 Seasonal pattern of Cropped area (%) and rainfall

YEA RS
SM Crop area W Crop Area S Crop Area SM Rain W Rain
S Rain
 2nd objective :
Trend analysis of NDVI vs Climate
(Rainfall, Maximum Temperature) and soil moisture

NDVI vs Rainfall NDVI vs Soil Moisture

Parameters NDVI

Max Temperature -0.55

Rainfall 0.47

Soil Moisture 0.61

NDVI vs Maximum Temperature Correlation R values
 P ro d u c tio n to
Length of the Growing
Period(LGP) vs Rainfall 26000
21000
Length of the Growing Period (LGP) vs Crop Production
170
150

and crop production

LGP
16000 130
11000
110
90
6000
70
1000 50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
YEARS
TotArea Prod TS LGP TS
Vulnerability :
• IPCC defines vulnerability (V) as the composite index
of exposure (E), sensitivity (S) and adaptive index (AC).
• Exposure (E): “the nature and degree to which a system
is exposed to significant climatic variation” (IPCC,
2001);
• Sensitivity (S): “degree to which a system is affected,
either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or
change” (IPCC, 2007); and
• Adaptive Capacity (AC): “the ability (or potential) of a
system to adjust successfully to climate change” (IPCC,  𝑽𝒖𝒍𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 =𝒇 ((𝑺+ 𝑬)− 𝑨𝑪 )
2007).
IPCC AR5 (2014):
2050 (average for 2041-
• IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) relies on the Coupled Time 2060)
Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), an Periods
2070 (average for 2061-
international effort among the climate modeling community to 2080)
coordinate climate change experiments.
RCP Peak of GHG emission
• Most of the CMIP5 and Earth System Model (ESM) (measured in CO2-
equivalents)
simulations for AR5 WRI were performed with prescribed CO2
2.6 2010-2020, then decline
concentrations reaching 421 ppm (RCP2.6), 538 ppm
4.5 Peak around 2040, then decline
(RCP4.5), 670 ppm (RCP6.0), and 936 ppm (RCP 8.5) by the
6.0 Peak around 2080, then decline
year 2100. (IPCC AR5 WGI,).
8.5 Continue to rise throughout the
• The numbers refer to radiative forcings (global energy 21st century
imbalances), measured in watts per square metre, by the year
2100.
Note: For present study 2050 (HadGEM2-ES) RCP 2.6 Scenarios (30 seconds) data is considered.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways; http://www.worldclim.org/cmip5_30s,

 Satellite Climate data Field data Socio-economic data
Future AR5 Generated
1982-2015 1982- 2015 2011 2011
Scenarios for 2030
• Pop.D; • GIA;
• No DF; • So.Er;
Precipitation; • T-AgL; • L/S;
• 2000-2015 • AWHC
Maximum Temperature; • % MgR; • AgW;
%RCAF; • NSA;
Minimum Temperature. • AgW; • %LiR;
• VCI • GCA.
• AgP; • %LiT;
• L/S; • T-AgL;
• %LiR; • Pop. D
Components of Vulnerability • % LiT;
+ve relation • TIA;
with • GIA;
vulnerability •
Identification of Indicators AgP
• AgCrSo
• ComB
-ve relation • RN
with Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity • Ag.MgSo
vulnerability
work
ra me
F 07)
𝑎 ¿ 𝑌 ¿𝑖𝑗 =¿ ¿
  •Ranking of Indicators
•Normalisation
Agriculture Drought
Vulnerability
C
IPC (20
•AHP
  𝑀 𝑎𝑥 ( 𝑋 𝑖𝑗 ) − 𝑋 𝑖𝑗 ADVI =Exposure + Sensitivity-
𝑏 ¿ 𝑌 ¿𝑖𝑗 = Adaptive Capacity
¿¿
Where
  represents the actual value of the indicator i th for the district jth, where i and j can vary from i=1,2, 3………..., n; j=1,2,3…………, m.;
and Max are the minimum and maximum value of the indicator i.
 Parameters used for agricultural drought vulnerability analysis for three cropping periods
Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Current Future (2050 & 2070) District Mandal District Mandal
1982-2015 2000-2015
  • GCA • NSA • G-Ir • TIA
• Precipitation RCP 2.5 • Precipitation • No. DF • GCA • ExG-Ir • AgP
• Maximum Temperature RCP 4.5 • Maximum • % RCF • % RCF • AgW • AgCrSo
• Minimum Temperature RCP 6.0 Temperature • VCI • VCI • AgP • ComB
RCP 8.5 • Minimum • So.Er • % NCA • L/S • %Li
Temperature • AWHC • So.Er • %LiR • RN
• Pop.D • AWHC • % LiT • Ag.MgSo
• T-AgL • Pop.D
• % MgR • TAgL

Extraction of pre-processing Indicators

Analysis Normalisation of Indicators
Weights of indicators using AHP method
Agricultural Drought Vulnerability index for all climate scenarios ADVI=
([E+S]-AC)
GIS Analysis
Overlay of district/mandal boundary to find the highest vulnerable zones
Generate vulnerability map
No. DF: No. of Drought Frequency; %RCF: Percentage Ratio of Crop Fluctuation; VCI: Vegetation Condition Index; GCA: Gross Cropped Area; S. Er: Soil
Erosion; AWHC: Available water holding Capacity; Pop. D: Population Density; T-AgL: Total Agriculture Labour; % MgR: Percentage of Migrants Rural; %
NCA: % Non cultivated area; %NSA: Percentage of Net Sown Area; %LiT: Percentage of Total Literacy; %LiR: Percentage of Rural Literacy; AgP: Agriculture
Power Consumption; AgW: Agriculture Wages; L/S: Live Stock; ExG-Ir: Extent of Gross Irrigated Area; G-Ir: Gross Irrigated Area; Ag-CrSo: Agriculture Credit
Society; CoB: Commercial Banks; RN: Road Networks; Ag-MrSo: Agriculture Marketing Society; RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway.
 3rd Objective Results:
The results presented are in following section.
Spatial distribution of Adaptive Capacity; Sensitivity;
Exposure; and Vulnerability for three cropping seasons.
 Recent-past status (1982-2015)
 District level; and
 Mandal level.
 Future climate scenario (2050, RCP 2.6 Scenarios):
 District level

Communicated: Bhavani P, P K Joshi, Chakravathi V et al. A comprehensive agriculture drought vulnerability monitoring approach integrating
satellite, climate and socio-economic data.
• Majority (80%) of the total
geographical area shows very
less to less adaptive capacity.

• During summer monsoon, SM

12.5% of area from total
geographical area is found to
be very high to high vulnerable.

• During winter season, 39 % of

area from total geographical W
area is found to be very high to
high vulnerable.

• During summer season, 23.4 %

of area from total geographical
Recent-past
area is found to be very high to
(1982-2015):
high vulnerable. S
Spatial distribution
• Due to the impact of of AC, S, E, ADVI at
monsoonal climate variation, district level.
winter season shows highest
area of vulnerability, followed
by summer season.
SM: Summer Monsoon; W:Winter; S: Summer
• Majority of mandals of
coastal districts found
moderate to very less
adaptive capacity.
SM
• During summer monsoon,,
Mahbubnagar, Nalgonda
and Adilabad shows 25-30
% of mandals from total
mandals are very high to
high vulnerable. W

• Highest % of mandals of
Mahbubanagar and
Adilabad districts are very
high to high during winter
season.
Spatial distribution of AC, S

• Majority of mandals of S, E, ADVI at

Nalgonda district are very Mandal level.
high to high vulnerable.
• During summer monsoon,
approximately 10% increase
in vulnerability area, compare
to present vulnerability. SM

• During winter season, 23.4 %

of area from total
geographical area is found to
be very high to high
vulnerable.
W
• During summer season, 12.5
% of area from total
geographical area is found to
be very high to high
vulnerable.
Future Scenario-2050 S
• The raise in % of area RCP 2.6: Spatial
vulnerable found during distribution of
winter and summer AC, S, E, ADVI at
monsoon. district level.

SM: Summer Monsoon; W:Winter; S: Summer

 Drought Year Normal Year Good Year 2050 RCP 2.6
a)
1 1 1 1
7 2 7 2 7 2 7 2
5 9 9 5 9 9
5 5
8 3 3 3 3
6 8 8 6 8
6 6
4 4 4 4
NDVI

b)
Projected 1 1 1 1

7 2 7 2 7 2 7
agriculture
2
5 9 5 9 5 9 5 9
8 3 8 3 8 3 8 3
NDVI 4
6
4
6
4
6
4
6

c)
1 1 1 1

7 2 7 2 7 2 7 2
5 9 5 9 5 9 5 9
8 3 8 3 8 3 8 3
6 6 6 6
4 4 4 4

1: Adilabad; 2:Kharimnagar; 3: Khammam; 4:Mahbubnagar; 5: Medak; 6: Nalgonda; 7: Nizamabad; 8: Rangareddy; and 9: Warangal
a)Summer Monsoon; b) Winter season; and c) Summer season
 Conclusion:
• The study highlights the long-term (1982–2015) inter-annual variation in the NDVIDev, SPI and
cropped areas (2000–2015).

• The vulnerability of the region, it is essential to use the satellite derived indices (NDVI Dev), the
cropped area and its fluctuation, the preceding year’s seasonal precipitation and the sources of
irrigation.

• The affect of vulnerability is high during winter and summer seasons found to be high.
This assessment is on district level.

• Future climate (2050) shows decline in agriculture NDVI and increase in agriculture
drought vulnerability during summer monsoon period.

• In all climate change scenarios of IPCC, the intensity of agriculture drought

vulnerability will significantly increase. This significant finding can help in taking a-
priori steps for adaptation and mitigation.
 Long term Agriculture performance and
drought vulnerability in present and future
climate in Telangana, India.