Introduction to Statistics

Lecture 6

Chap 1-1
 Topics To be covered

Problem solving related to descriptive statistics

Problems related to
PROBABILITY
Percentiles, Quartiles
Percentiles, Example
Quartiles
Quartiles
PROBABILITY
 Definitions

The probability of any outcome is

the long-term relative frequency of
that outcome.
 Probability through Simulation

                                                                 

Table[RandomInteger[{0,1}],{20}]
Wolfram Alpha output                                                                                  

box plot[{34, 18, 100, 27, 54, 52, 93, 59, 61, 87, 68, 85, 78, 82,
91}]
Rolling two dice
 Sample space of all possible outcomes
when two dice are tossed.

 (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5) (1,6)

 (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)
 (3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6)
 (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6)
 (5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6)
 (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)
 Probabilities of Compound Events
• Law of Complements:

“If A is an event, then the complement of A, denoted

by , represents
A the event composed of all basic outcomes in S
that do not belong to A.”

A
A
S
• Additive Law of Probability:
 Law of Complements

Law of Complements:

P( A)  1  P( A)
15
 Additive Law of Probability
Let A and B be two events in a sample space S. The probability
of the union of A and B is
P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B).

A B

S
 Mutually Exclusive Events
Mutually Exclusive Events: Events that have no basic
outcomes in common, or equivalently, their intersection is the
empty set.

Let A and B be two events in a sample space S. The probability

of the union of two mutually exclusive events A and B is
P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B ).

A B

S
 Multiplication Rule and
Independent Events

Multiplication Rule for Independent Events: Let A and B

be two independent events, then
P ( A  B )  P( A) P( B).

Examples:
• Flip a coin twice. What is the probability of observing two heads?

• Flip a coin twice. What is the probability of getting a head and then a tail? A
tail and then a head? One head?

• Three computers are ordered. If the probability of getting a “working” computer

is .7, what is the probability that all three are “working” ?
 EXPERIMENTS

1 . Select two marbles without replacement from a bag containing 1 white, 1 red and 2 green marbles.

 2. Roll two die and observe the sum of the points on the top faces of each die.

 All of the above are considered experiments.

 Probabilities of Compound Events
• Law of Complements:

“If A is an event, then the complement of A, denoted

by , represents
A the event composed of all basic outcomes in S
that do not belong to A.”

A
A
S
• Additive Law of Probability:
P ( E1 )  P ( E2 )  P( E3 )  ...  1
 Toss two coins
 Example: Toss two coins. Find the probability of at least one head
appearing.
 Solution: At least one head is interpreted as one head or two
heads.
 Step 1: Find the sample space:{ HH, HT, TH, TT} There are four
possible outcomes.
 Step 2: How many outcomes of the event “at least one head”
Answer: 3 : { HH, HT, TH}

n( E )

P(E)= = ¾ = 0.75 = 75%
n( S )
8 possibilities for 3 tosses.

 2 x 2 x 2 = 23 = 8
 A coin & a die.

 How many possible outcomes does the

experiment have?
A fair die is thrown and a fair coin is flipped at the same time.

(i) Draw a tree diagram to represent this sample space.

 We have 2 x 6 = 12 possibilities.

 2-part experiment with m & n possibilities for

each part.

 total number of outcomes for the experiment

is
 m×n
A fair die is thrown and a fair coin is flipped at the same time.

(i) Draw a two-way table to represent this sample space.

 A fair die is thrown and a fair coin is flipped at the same time.

(ii) Use the two-way table to calculate the probability of getting:

(a) a head

(b) 3

(c) a head and a 3

 (d) a tail and an even number

SOLUTION

(e) a tail or a prime number.

SOLUTION
Outcomes that contain a tail or a prime number = 9
 For 3-part experiment,
the 1st part has m possibilities,
the 2nd part has n possibilities,
& the 3rd part has p possibilities,
how many possible outcomes would
the experiment have?
 m n p
 Conditional Probability
The probability of an event based on the fact that some other event has
occurred, will occur, or is occurring.

The probability of event B occurring given that event A has occurred is

usually stated as “the conditional probability of B, given A; P(B |A)

P( A  B) P ( A and B )
P(B|A) = 
P ( A) P ( A)
Example: Conditional Probability
A number from the sample space S = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9} is randomly
selected. Given the defined events A and B,
A: selected number is odd, and
B: selected number is a multiple of 3
find the following probabilities.
a) P(B) b) P(A and B) c) P(B/A)
Solution
a) B = {3, 6, 9} P(B) = 3/8

b) P(A and B) = P({3, 5, 7, 9}  {3, 6, 9})

= P({3, 9}) = 2/8 = 1/4
c) Probability of B given A has occurred:
P(A and B) 1/4
P(B/A) = = = 1/2
P(A) 4/8
 Independent Events

Two events are Independent if the occurrence of one of them has no

effect on the probability of the other.

P(B|A) = P(B)
or
P(A|B) = P(A)
 Expected Value
The Expected Value of x is the sum of the products of the
values of x and their corresponding probabilities.
E(x) = x1 P(x1) + x2 P(x2) + x3 P(x3) + … + xn P(xn)
The expected value is a calculation that serves as the best
prediction of a value. It is the probability-weighted average of
all possible outcomes.

The expected value of a possible future event assists in making

mathematically sound decisions. It is often used when making
investments, determining a price for numerous services, and in
calculating Return on Investment.
 Expected Value
Example:
Find the expected number of boys for a three-child family. Assume girls
and boys are equally likely.
bbb # of Boys Probability Product
bbg x P(x) x P(x)
bgb 0 1/8 0
bgg 1 3/8 3/8
gbb 2 3/8 6/8
gbg 3 1/8 3/8
ggb
ggg Expected value, E(x) = 0 + 3/8 + 6/8 + 3/8
Expected value, E(x) = 12/8
Expected value, E(x) = 3/2
Expected value, E(x) = 1.5 boys
 Expected Value
Example:
Expected Investment Profits
Mark intends to invest $6,000 in one of two companies. His research is
presented in the tables below:
Company ABC Company PDQ
Profit/Loss (x) Probability P(x) Profit/Loss (x) Probability P(x)
- $400 0.2 $600 0.8
$800 0.5 $1000 0.2
$1300 0.3

What are the expected profits (or loses) for each company?
E(x) = -400 (0.2) + 800 (0.5) + 1300 (.3) E(x) = 600 (0.8) + 1000 (0.2)
E(x) = -80 + 400 + 390 E(x) = 480 + 200
E(x) = $710 Profit E(x) = $680 Profit
 Permutations
In how many ways can 8 CD’s be arranged
on a shelf?
n! n 8
Np 
(n  r )! r 8

8! 8!
Np    40,320
(8  8)! 1
 Permutations
In how many ways can 4 CD’s (out of a
collection of 8 CD’s) be arranged on a shelf?

n! n 8
Np 
(n  r )! r4
8! 8!
Np    1,680
(8  4)! 4!

 Combinations
When the order in which the events occurred
is of no interest, we are dealing with
combinations. The number of possible
combinations is  
n n!
Nc   
r  r!(n  r)!
where r is the number of events in the series, n is the
number of possible events, and n! denotes the factorial of n
= the product of all the positive integers from 1 to n.
The number of combinations of n
objects taken k at a time is

n!
Ck 
(n  k ) ! k !
n
 Combinations
How many groups of 4 CDs are there in a
collection of 8 CDs)?

n  n! n 8
Nc   
r  r!(n  r)! r4
8  8! 8!
Nc      70
4  4!(8  4)! 4!4!

 Assignment 2
P. 213. Qs. 6,7,8,9,10,11

Use the following information to answer the next six exercises. A

jar of 150 jelly beans contains 22 red jelly beans, 38
yellow, 20 green, 28 purple, 26 blue, and the rest are orange.

Let B = the event of getting a blue jelly bean

Let G = the event of getting a green jelly bean.
Let O = the event of getting an orange jelly bean.
Let P = the event of getting a purple jelly bean.
Let R = the event of getting a red jelly bean.
Let Y = the event of getting a yellow jelly bean.