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Forecasting: Good Afternoon All!
Forecasting: Good Afternoon All!
Forecasting: Good Afternoon All!
1 4-1
Why use forecasting?
4-2
Forecasting at Disney World
Global portfolio includes parks in Hong
Kong, Paris, Tokyo, Orlando, and
Anaheim
Revenues are derived from people – how
many visitors and how they spend their
money
Daily management report contains only
the forecast and actual attendance at
each park
4-7
Forecasting Time Horizons
Short-range forecast
Up to 1 year, generally less than 3 months
Purchasing, job scheduling, workforce
levels, job assignments, production levels
Medium-range forecast
3 months to 3 years
Sales and production planning, budgeting
Long-range forecast
3+ years
New product planning, facility location,
research and development
4-8
Distinguishing Differences
Medium/long range forecasts deal with
more comprehensive issues and support
management decisions regarding
planning and products, plants and
processes
Short-term forecasting usually employs
different methodologies than longer-term
forecasting
Short-term forecasts tend to be more
accurate than longer-term forecasts
4-9
Influence of Product Life
Cycle
Introduction – Growth – Maturity – Decline
4 - 10
Product Life Cycle
Introduction Growth Maturity Decline
Best period to Practical to change Poor time to Cost control
Company Strategy/Issues
Figure 2.5
4 - 12
Types of Forecasts
Economic forecasts
Address business cycle – inflation rate,
money supply, housing starts, etc.
Technological forecasts
Predict rate of technological progress
Impacts development of new products
Demand forecasts
Predict sales of existing products and
services
4 - 13
Strategic Importance of
Forecasting
Human Resources – Hiring, training,
laying off workers
Capacity – Capacity shortages can
result in undependable delivery, loss
of customers, loss of market share
Supply Chain Management – Good
supplier relations and price
advantages
4 - 14
Seven Steps in Forecasting
1. Determine the use of the forecast
2. Select the items to be forecasted
3. Determine the time horizon of the
forecast
4. Select the forecasting model(s)
5. Gather the data
6. Make the forecast
7. Validate and implement results
4 - 15
The Realities!
4 - 16
Forecasting Approaches
Qualitative Methods
Used when situation is vague
and little data exist
New products
New technology
Involves intuition, experience
e.g., forecasting sales on
Internet
4 - 17
Forecasting Approaches
Quantitative Methods
Used when situation is ‘stable’ and
historical data exist
Existing products
Current technology
Involves mathematical techniques
e.g., forecasting sales of color
televisions
4 - 18
Overview of Qualitative
Methods
1. Jury of executive opinion
Pool opinions of high-level experts,
sometimes augment by statistical
models
2. Delphi method
Panel of experts, queried iteratively
4 - 19
Overview of Qualitative
Methods
3. Sales force composite
Estimates from individual
salespersons are reviewed for
reasonableness, then aggregated
4. Consumer Market Survey
Ask the customer
4 - 20
Jury of Executive Opinion
Involves small group of high-level
experts and managers
Group estimates demand by working
together
Combines managerial experience with
statistical models
Relatively quick
‘Group-think’
disadvantage
4 - 21
Sales Force Composite
4 - 22
Delphi Method
Iterative group
Decision Makers
process, (Evaluate
continues until responses and
consensus is make decisions)
reached
Staff
3 types of (Administering
survey)
participants
Decision makers
Staff Respondents
Respondents (People who can
make valuable
judgments)
4 - 23
Consumer Market Survey
Ask customers about purchasing
plans
What consumers say, and what
they actually do are often different
Sometimes difficult to answer
4 - 24
Overview of Quantitative
Approaches
1. Naive approach
2. Moving averages
3. Exponential time-series
models
smoothing
4. Trend projection
5. Linear regression associative
model
4 - 25
Time Series Forecasting
Trend Cyclical
Seasonal Random
4 - 27
Components of Demand
Trend
component
Demand for product or service
Seasonal peaks
Actual demand
line
Average demand
over 4 years
Random variation
| | | |
1 2 3 4
Time (years)
Figure 4.1
4 - 28
Trend Component
Persistent, overall upward or
downward pattern
Changes due to population,
technology, age, culture, etc.
Typically several years
duration
4 - 29
Seasonal Component
Regular pattern of up and
down fluctuations
Due to weather, customs, etc.
Occurs within a single year
Number of
Period Length Seasons
Week Day 7
Month Week 4-4.5
Month Day 28-31
Year Quarter 4
Year Month 12
Year Week 52
4 - 30
Cyclical Component
Repeating up and down movements
Affected by business cycle,
political, and economic factors
Multiple years duration
Often causal or
associative
relationships
0 5 10 15 20
4 - 31
Random Component
Erratic, unsystematic, ‘residual’
fluctuations
Due to random variation or unforeseen
events
Short duration
and nonrepeating
M T W T F
4 - 32
Naive Approach
Assumes demand in next
period is the same as
demand in most recent period
e.g., If January sales were 68, then
February sales will be 68
Sometimes cost effective and
efficient
Can be good starting point
4 - 33
Moving Average Method
4 - 34
Moving Average Example
Actual 3-Month
Month Shed Sales Moving Average
January 10
February 12
March 13
April 16 (10 + 12 + 13)/3 = 11 2/3
May 19 (12 + 13 + 16)/3 = 13 2/3
June 23 (13 + 16 + 19)/3 = 16
July 26 (16 + 19 + 23)/3 = 19 1/3
4 - 35
Graph of Moving Average
Moving
Average
30 –
28 –
Forecast
26 – Actual
24 – Sales
Shed Sales
22 –
20 –
18 –
16 –
14 –
12 –
10 –
| | | | | | | | | | | |
J F M A M J J A S O N D
4 - 36
Weighted Moving Average
Used when some trend might be
present
Older data usually less important
Weights based on experience and
intuition
∑ (weight for period n)
Weighted x (demand in period n)
moving average = ∑ weights
4 - 37
Weights Applied Period
Weighted Moving Average
3 Last month
2 Two months ago
1 Three months ago
6 Sum of weights
4 - 38
Potential Problems With
Moving Average
Increasing n smooths the forecast
but makes it less sensitive to
changes
Do not forecast trends well
Require extensive historical data
4 - 39
Moving Average And
Weighted Moving Average
Weighted
moving
30 – average
25 –
Sales demand
20 – Actual
sales
15 –
Moving
10 – average
5 –
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Figure 4.2
J F M A M J J A S O N D
4 - 40
Exponential Smoothing
Form of weighted moving average
Weights decline exponentially
Most recent data weighted most
Requires smoothing constant ()
Ranges from 0 to 1
Subjectively chosen
Involves little record keeping of past
data
4 - 41
Exponential Smoothing
t = Last period’s forecast
+ a (Last period’s actual demand
– Last period’s forecast)
Ft = Ft – 1 + a(At – 1 - Ft – 1)
4 - 42
Exponential Smoothing
Example
Predicted demand = 142 Ford Mustangs
Actual demand = 153
Smoothing constant a = .20
4 - 43
Exponential Smoothing
Example
Predicted demand = 142 Ford Mustangs
Actual demand = 153
Smoothing constant a = .20
4 - 44
Exponential Smoothing
Example
Predicted demand = 142 Ford Mustangs
Actual demand = 153
Smoothing constant a = .20
4 - 45
*Effect of
Smoothing Constants
Weight Assigned to
Most 2nd Most 3rd Most 4th Most 5th Most
Recent Recent Recent Recent Recent
Smoothing Period Period Period Period Period
Constant (a) a(1 - a) a(1 - a)2
a(1 - a)3
a(1 - a)4
4 - 46
*Impact of Different
225 –
Actual a = .5
demand
200 –
Demand
175 –
a = .1
| | | | | | | | |
150 –
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Quarter
4 - 47
Impact of Different
225 –
Actual a = .5
Chose high values
demandof
when
underlying average
Demand
200 –
is likely to change
175
Choose
– low values of
when underlying average
a = .1
is stable
| | | | | | | | |
150 –
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Quarter
4 - 48
Choosing
n
∑100|Actuali - Forecasti|/Actuali
MAPE = i=1
n
4 - 51
*Comparison of Forecast
Error
Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute
Actual Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation
Tonnage with for with for
Quarter Unloaded a = .10 a = .10 a = .50 a = .50
1 180 175 5.00 175 5.00
2 168 175.5 7.50 177.50 9.50
3 159 174.75 15.75 172.75 13.75
4 175 173.18 1.82 165.88 9.12
5 190 173.36 16.64 170.44 19.56
6 205 175.02 29.98 180.22 24.78
7 180 178.02 1.98 192.61 12.61
8 182 178.22 3.78 186.30 4.30
82.45 98.62
4 - 52
Comparison of Forecast
Error
∑ |deviations|
Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute
MADActual
= Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation
Tonnage n
with for with for
Quarter Unloaded a = .10 a = .10 a = .50 a = .50
1
For a =
180
.10 175 5.00 175 5.00
2 168 = 82.45/8
175.5 = 10.31
7.50 177.50 9.50
3 159 174.75 15.75 172.75 13.75
4 For a175
= .50 173.18 1.82 165.88 9.12
5 190 173.36 16.64 170.44 19.56
6 205 = 98.62/8
175.02 = 12.33
29.98 180.22 24.78
7 180 178.02 1.98 192.61 12.61
8 182 178.22 3.78 186.30 4.30
82.45 98.62
4 - 53
Comparison of Forecast
Error
∑ (forecast errors)
Rounded
2
Absolute Rounded Absolute
MSE = Actual Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation
Tonnage n
with for with for
Quarter Unloaded a = .10 a = .10 a = .50 a = .50
1
For a =
180
.10 175 5.00 175 5.00
2 = 1,526.54/8
168 175.5 = 190.82
7.50 177.50 9.50
3 159 174.75 15.75 172.75 13.75
4 For a175
= .50 173.18 1.82 165.88 9.12
5 190 173.36 16.64 170.44 19.56
6 = 1,561.91/8
205 175.02 = 195.24
29.98 180.22 24.78
7 180 178.02 1.98 192.61 12.61
8 182 178.22 3.78 186.30 4.30
82.45 98.62
MAD 10.31 12.33
4 - 54
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17
3 20
4 19
5 24
6 21
7 31
8 28
9 36
10
Table 4.1
4 - 55
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17
3 20
4 19
5 24 Step 1: Forecast for Month 2
6 21
7 31 F2 = aA1 + (1 - a)(F1 + T1)
8 28
9 36 F2 = (.2)(12) + (1 - .2)(11 + 2)
10 = 2.4 + 10.4 = 12.8 units
Table 4.1
4 - 56
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17 12.80
3 20
4 19
5 24 Step 2: Trend for Month 2
6 21
7 31 T2 = b(F2 - F1) + (1 - b)T1
8 28
9 36 T2 = (.4)(12.8 - 11) + (1 - .4)(2)
10 = .72 + 1.2 = 1.92 units
Table 4.1
4 - 57
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17 12.80 1.92
3 20
4 19
5 24 Step 3: Calculate FIT for Month 2
6 21
7 31 FIT2 = F2 + T2
8 28
9 36
FIT2 = 12.8 + 1.92
10 = 14.72 units
Table 4.1
4 - 58
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17 12.80 1.92 14.72
3 20 15.18 2.10 17.28
4 19 17.82 2.32 20.14
5 24 19.91 2.23 22.14
6 21 22.51 2.38 24.89
7 31 24.11 2.07 26.18
8 28 27.14 2.45 29.59
9 36 29.28 2.32 31.60
10 32.48 2.68 35.16
Table 4.1
4 - 59
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
35 –
Actual demand (At)
30 –
Product demand
25 –
20 –
15 –
10 –
Forecast including trend (FITt)
with = .2 and = .4
5 –
0 – | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Figure 4.3
Time (month)
4 - 60
Trend Projections
Fitting a trend line to historical data points
to project into the medium to long-range
Linear trends can be found using the least
squares technique
y^ = a + bx
^ where y = computed value of the
variable to be predicted (dependent
variable)
a = y-axis intercept
b = slope of the regression line
x = the independent variable
4 - 61
Values of Dependent Variable Least Squares Method
Deviation5 Deviation6
Deviation3
Deviation4
Deviation1
(error) Deviation2
Trend line, y^ = a + bx
Deviation5 Deviation6
Deviation1
(error) Deviation2
Trend line, y^ = a + bx
y^ = a + bx
Sxy - nxy
b=
Sx2 - nx2
a = y - bx
4 - 64
Least Squares Example
Time Electrical Power
Year Period (x) Demand x2 xy
2003 1 74 1 74
2004 2 79 4 158
2005 3 80 9 240
2006 4 90 16 360
2007 5 105 25 525
2008 6 142 36 852
2009 7 122 49 854
∑x = 28 ∑y = 692 ∑x2 = 140 ∑xy = 3,063
x=4 y = 98.86
130 –
120 –
110 –
100 –
90 –
80 –
70 –
60 –
50 –
| | | | | | | | |
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
4 - 67
Seasonal Variations In Data
The multiplicative
seasonal model
can adjust trend
data for seasonal
variations in
demand
4 - 69
Seasonal Variations In Data
Steps in the process:
1. Find average historical demand for each season
2. Compute the average demand over all seasons
3. Compute a seasonal index for each season
4. Estimate next year’s total demand
5. Divide this estimate of total demand by the
number of seasons, then multiply it by the
seasonal index for that season
4 - 70
Seasonal Index Example
Demand Average Average Seasonal
Month 2007 2008 2009 2007-2009 Monthly Index
Jan 80 85 105 90 94
Feb 70 85 85 80 94
Mar 80 93 82 85 94
Apr 90 95 115 100 94
May 113 125 131 123 94
Jun 110 115 120 115 94
Jul 100 102 113 105 94
Aug 88 102 110 100 94
Sept 85 90 95 90 94
Oct 77 78 85 80 94
Nov 75 72 83 80 94
Dec 82 78 80 80 94
4 - 71
Seasonal Index Example
Demand Average Average Seasonal
Month 2007 2008 2009 2007-2009 Monthly Index
Jan 80 85 105 90 94 0.957
Feb 70 85 85 80 94
Mar 80 93 Average
82 85 monthly 94
2007-2009 demand
Seasonal90index95= 115
Apr 100 94
Average monthly demand
May 113 125 131 123 94
Jun 110 115= 90/94
120 = .957 115 94
Jul 100 102 113 105 94
Aug 88 102 110 100 94
Sept 85 90 95 90 94
Oct 77 78 85 80 94
Nov 75 72 83 80 94
Dec 82 78 80 80 94
4 - 72
Seasonal Index Example
Demand Average Average Seasonal
Month 2007 2008 2009 2007-2009 Monthly Index
Jan 80 85 105 90 94 0.957
Feb 70 85 85 80 94 0.851
Mar 80 93 82 85 94 0.904
Apr 90 95 115 100 94 1.064
May 113 125 131 123 94 1.309
Jun 110 115 120 115 94 1.223
Jul 100 102 113 105 94 1.117
Aug 88 102 110 100 94 1.064
Sept 85 90 95 90 94 0.957
Oct 77 78 85 80 94 0.851
Nov 75 72 83 80 94 0.851
Dec 82 78 80 80 94 0.851
4 - 73
Seasonal Index Example
Demand Average Average Seasonal
Month 2007 2008 2009 2007-2009 Monthly Index
Jan 80 85 105 90 94 0.957
Feb 70 85 Forecast
85 for802010 94 0.851
Mar 80 93 82 85 94 0.904
Apr 90Expected
95 115annual demand
100 = 1,200
94 1.064
May 113 125 131 123 94 1.309
Jun 110 115 120 1,200 115 94 1.223
Jul Jan 113
100 102 x .957 = 96 94
105 1.117
12
Aug 88 102 110 100 94 1.064
Sept 85 90 95 1,200 90 94 0.957
Feb x .851 = 85
Oct 77 78 85 12 80 94 0.851
Nov 75 72 83 80 94 0.851
Dec 82 78 80 80 94 0.851
4 - 74
Seasonal Index Example
2010 Forecast
140 – 2009 Demand
130 – 2008 Demand
2007 Demand
120 –
Demand
110 –
100 –
90 –
80 –
70 –
| | | | | | | | | | | |
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Time
4 - 75
San Diego Hospital
Trend Data
10,200 –
10,000 –
Inpatient Days
9745
9,800 – 9659 9702
9573 9616 9766
9,600 – 9530 9680 9724
9594 9637
9551
9,400 –
9,200 –
| | | | | | | | | | | |
9,000 –
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78
Month
Figure 4.6
4 - 76
San Diego Hospital
Seasonal Indices
1.06 –
1.04 1.04
Index for Inpatient Days
1.04 – 1.03
1.02
1.02 – 1.01
1.00
1.00 – 0.99
0.98
0.98 – 0.99
0.96 – 0.97 0.97
0.96
0.94 –
| | | | | | | | | | | |
0.92 –
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78
Month
Figure 4.7
4 - 77
San Diego Hospital
Combined Trend and Seasonal Forecast
10,200 – 10068
9949
10,000 – 9911
Inpatient Days
9764 9724
9,800 – 9691
9572
9,600 –
9520 9542
9,400 –
9411
9265 9355
9,200 –
| | | | | | | | | | | |
9,000 –
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78
Month
Figure 4.8
4 - 78
Associative Forecasting
Used when changes in one or more
independent variables can be used to predict
the changes in the dependent variable
4 - 79
Associative Forecasting
Forecasting an outcome based on predictor
variables using the least squares technique
y^ = a + bx
^ where y = computed value of the
variable to be predicted (dependent
variable)
a = y-axis intercept
b = slope of the regression line
x = the independent variable
though to predict the value of the
dependent variable 4 - 80
Associative Forecasting
Example
Sales Area Payroll
($ millions), y ($ billions), x
2.0 1
3.0 3
2.5 4
2.0 2 4.0 –
2.0 1
3.0 –
3.5 7 Sales
2.0 –
1.0 –
| | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Area payroll
4 - 81
Associative Forecasting
Example
Sales, y Payroll, x x2 xy
2.0 1 1 2.0
3.0 3 9 9.0
2.5 4 16 10.0
2.0 2 4 4.0
2.0 1 1 2.0
3.5 7 49 24.5
∑y = 15.0 ∑x = 18 ∑x2 = 80 ∑xy = 51.5
Nodel’s sales
3.0 –
4 - 83
Standard Error of the
Estimate
A forecast is just a point estimate of a
future value
This point is
4.0 –
actually the 3.25
mean of a
Nodel’s sales
3.0 –
probability
2.0 –
distribution
1.0 –
| | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Area payroll
Figure 4.9
4 - 84
Standard Error of the
Estimate
∑(y - yc)2
Sy,x =
n-2
4 - 85
Standard Error of the
Estimate
Computationally, this equation is
considerably easier to use
4 - 86
*Standard Error of the
Estimate
∑y2 - a∑y - b∑xy = 39.5 - 1.75(15) - .25(51.5)
Sy,x =
n-2 6-2
4 - 87
Correlation
How strong is the linear
relationship between the variables?
Correlation does not necessarily
imply causality!
Coefficient of correlation, r,
measures degree of association
Values range from -1 to +1
4 - 88
Correlation Coefficient
nSxy - SxSy
r=
[nSx2 - (Sx)2][nSy2 - (Sy)2]
4 - 89
y
Correlation Coefficient y
nSxy - SxSy
r=
[nSx
(a) Perfect positive x
2
- (Sx) 2
][nSy
(b) Positive ]
2
- (Sy) 2
x
correlation: correlation:
r = +1 0<r<1
y y
^
y = 1.80 + .30x1 - 5.0x2
4 - 94
Monitoring and Controlling
Forecasts
∑(Actual demand in
period i -
Forecast demand
Tracking in period i)
signal = (∑|Actual - Forecast|/n)
4 - 95
Tracking Signal
Acceptable
0 MADs range
Time
4 - 96
Tracking Signal Example
Cumulative
Absolute Absolute
Actual Forecast Cumm Forecast Forecast
Qtr Demand Demand Error Error Error Error MAD
4 - 97
Tracking Signal Example
Cumulative
Tracking Absolute Absolute
Actual Signal
Forecast Cumm Forecast Forecast
Qtr (CummDemand
Demand Error/MAD)
Error Error Error Error MAD
1 90-10/10
100= -1 -10 -10 10 10 10.0
2 95
-15/7.5
100= -2 -5 -15 5 15 7.5
3 115 0/10
100= 0 +15 0 15 30 10.0
4 100-10/10
110= -1 -10 -10 10 40 10.0
5 125
+5/11110
= +0.5+15 +5 15 55 11.0
6 140
+35/14.2
110= +2.5
+30 +35 30 85 14.2