Chapter#07

Probability and
Probability Distribution
Source: Introduction to Statistical Theory Part-1; Chapter#06 and 08
Introduction
•Probability is the study of randomness and
uncertainty.
•Statistics and Probability theory constitutes
a branch of mathematics for dealing with
uncertainty
•Probability theory provides a basis for the
science of Statistical inference from data
Meaning Of Probability
Probability

Subjective Objective

Qualitative measure Quantitative measure

of uncertainty of uncertainty
 Subjective Probability
It is always clear what we mean when
we make statements of the type that it is very likely
to rain today or I have a fair chance of passing the
mid term examination or A will probably win a
prize. In each of these statement, the natural state
of uncertainty is expressed, but on the basis of past
evidence, we have some degree of personal belief
in the truth of each statement.
 Objective Probability
As the Objective probability is also
known as Quantitative measure of
uncertainty and is obtained by using
different techniques or formula
Properties of Probability
• The probability of any event (A) will always lie
between 0 and 1.
i.e. 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
• The probability of an impossible event will always
be equal to zero.
i.e. P(ɸ) = 0
• The probability of a sure event must be equal to one.
i.e. P(S) = 1
 Binomial
Distribution
Binomial Distribution formula:

P r    pq
n
r
r n r

Where
n = the total no. of trials
p = probability of success
q = probability of failure (i.e. q = 1 - p)
r = no. of successes in n trials.
Example
A survey from teenage Research
unlimited (Northbrook 111) found that
30% of teenage consumers receive
their spending money from part-time
jobs. If 15 teenagers are selected at
random, find the probability that 3 of
them will have part-time jobs.
Example
The brand name of McDonald’s has a 0.95
recognition rate. If a McDonald’s executive
wants to verify this rate by beginning with a
small sample of 15 randomly selected
consumers find the probability that exactly
13 consumers recognize the McDonald’s
brand name.
Example
A survey found that one out of five
Americans say he or she has visited a doctor
in any given month. If 10 people are selected
at random, find the probability that exactly 4
will have visited a doctor last month.
 Example
If 60 out of 110 of the voters in a large district
prefer candidate Jordan, what is the probability
that in a sample of 17 voters
A)8 will prefer Jordan?
B)10 will prefer Jordan?
C)12 will prefer Jordan?
D)14 will prefer Jordan?
Example
If 0.80 of the tires in a large population
of tires are good, what is the probability
that in a sample of 12 tires
A)5 are good?
B)7 are good?
C)10 are good?
Example
A fair coin is tossed 5 times. Find the probabilities
of obtaining

a) No head b) One Head c) Two Heads

d) Three Heads e) Four Heads f) Five Heads

 The Poisson Distribution
The Poisson formula can be used to
approximate the probability of r success in
“n” binomial trials in situations where “n”
is very large (n≥20) and p is very small
(p≤0.05)
Poisson Distribution formula

e  r
P r   , r  0,1,2,..., 
Where r !
µ= np and e = 2.71828
Example
A company makes electric motors. The
probability an electric motor is defective
is 1%. What is the probability that a
sample of 120 electric motors will
contain exactly 3 defective motors?
Example
The Probability that a patient recovers
from a delicate heart operation is 3%.
What is the probability that exactly 4
of the next Twenty seven patients
having this operation survive?
Example
During a typical football game,
a coach can expect(Average) 3.2
injuries. Find the probability that
the team will have 2 injuries in
this game.
Example
On an average Friday, a waitress
gets no tip from 5 customers. Find
the probability that she will get no
tip from 7 customers this Friday.
Example
The ABC Company manufactures
toy robots. About 1 toy robot per
100 does not work. You purchase
35 ABC toy robots. What is the
probability that exactly 4 do not
work?
Example
1 out of 25 Students have pass the
Quantitative Data Analysis paper in
grade-A. What is the probability that
in a sample of 40 students exactly 5
will get grade-A.
Example
If 2% of the batteries manufactured
by a company are defective, find the
probability that in a case of 150
batteries, there are 5 defective.
 Example
(a) 5% of the items in a large lot are
defective. A sample of 60 is inspected.
What is the probability that the sample
contains exactly four defectives.
(b) Calculate the probability of exactly four
defectives if 4% of the items are
defectives.