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Lecture 3 - Derivative Market: Futures Forwards Options
Lecture 3 - Derivative Market: Futures Forwards Options
Futures
Forwards
Options
What is in today’s lecture?
Some Examples
Lecture 3
Basis Risk
Some Exercises
BASIC PRINCIPLES OF HEDGING
• Using futures markets to hedge a risk, the
objective is to take a position that neutralizes the
risk
• The key to hedging with future contracts is to take
an opposite position to what a firm/individual
already has or is expected to have
• Long Hedge
• Short Hedge
Short Hedges
• A short hedge is a hedge that involves a short
position in futures contracts.
• A short hedge is appropriate when the hedger
already owns an asset and expects to sell it at
some time in the future.
• A short hedge can also be used when an asset is
not owned right now but will be owned at some
time in the future
• Producers or those who anticipates to receive inventory should use short-hedge to reduce
the risk of their output
• An Example of Hedging
• Let's assume part of your investment portfolio includes 100 shares of Company XYZ, which
manufactures autos. Because the auto industry is cyclical (meaning Company XYZ usually
sells more cars and is more profitable during economic booms and sells fewer cars and is less
profitable during economic slumps), Company XYZ shares will probably be worth less if the
economy starts to deteriorate. How do you protect your investment?
• One way is to buy defensive stocks. These stocks might be from the food, utility, or other
industries that sell products that consumers consider basic necessities. During economic
slumps, these stocks tend to gain or at least hold their value. Thus, these stocks may gain
when your XYZ shares lose.
• Another way to hedge is to purchase a put option contract on the shares (this would
essentially allow you to "lock in" a particular sale price on XYZ, so even if the stock crashed,
you wouldn't suffer much). You could also sell a futures contract, promising to sell your stock
at a set price at a certain point in the future
Real Life Example of long-hedge
• A group of students opened a small meat market
called What’s Your Beef near the University of
Pennsylvania in the late 1970s. this was a time of
volatile consumer prices, especially food prices.
Knowing that their fellow students were
particularly budget-conscious, the owners vowed
to keep food prices constant, regardless of price
movements in either direction. They accomplished
this by purchasing futures contracts in various
agricultural commodities.
BASIS RISK
In practice, hedging is often not quite straightforward due to
the following reasons:
1. The asset whose price is to be hedged may not be exactly
the same as the asset underlying the futures contract.
2. The hedger may be uncertain as to the exact date when
the asset will be bought or sold.
3. The hedge may require the futures contract to be closed
out well before its expiration date.
• These problems give rise to what is termed basis risk.
The Basis
• The basis in a hedging situation is as follows:
• Basis = Spot price of asset to be hedged - Futures price of
contract used
• If the asset to be hedged and the asset underlying the
futures contract are the same, the basis should be zero at
the expiration of the futures contract. Prior to expiration,
the basis may be positive or negative
Some terms related to basis
• When the spot price increases by more than the
futures price, the basis increases. This is referred
to as a strengthening of the basis.
• When the futures price increases by more than the
spot price, the basis declines. This is referred to as
a weakening of the basis
An Example
• a company knows that it will need to purchase 20,000 barrels of crude oil
at some time in October or November. Oil futures contracts are currently
traded for delivery every month and the contract size is 1,000 barrels. The
company therefore decides to use the December contract for hedging
and takes a long position in 20 December contracts. The futures price on
June 8 is $68.00 per barrel. The company finds that it is ready to purchase
the crude oil on November 10. It therefore closes out its futures contract
on that date. The spot price and futures price on November 10 are $70.00
per barrel and $69.10 per barrel.
• 1. Can you find the gain on future contract?
• 2. What is the BASIS when the contract is closed out?
• 3. What is the final effective price paid by the company for the oil
purchased on November 10?
solution
• 1. Can you find the gain on future contract?
• Gain = 69.1 – 68 = 1.1
• 2. What is the BASIS when the contract is closed
out? Basis = 70 – 69.1 = 0.9
• 3. What is the final effective price paid by the
company for the oil purchased on November 10?
• Effective Price = Initial future price + Basis =>
68.00+0.9=68.9
What to do to reduce basis risk?
• One key factor affecting basis risk is the choice of
the futures contract to be used for hedging. This
choice has two components:
1. The choice of the asset underlying the futures
contract
2. The choice of the delivery month
1. The choice of the asset
• If the asset being hedged exactly matches an asset
underlying a futures contract, the first choice is
generally fairly easy.
• In other circumstances, it is necessary to carry out
a careful analysis to determine which of the
available futures contracts has futures prices that
are most closely correlated with the price of the
asset being hedged.
2. The choice of the delivery month
• Generally, basis risk increases as the difference between
the hedge expiration and the delivery month increases
• A good rule of thumb is therefore to choose a delivery
month that is as close as possible to, but later than, the
expiration of the hedge.
• Sometime, a contract with a later delivery month is
chosen, can you imagine why?
• Might be the hedger has to take the delivery in cases,
which can be expensive
CROSS HEDGING
Q S ΔS
NFFF*, and
• If DVHH = 0, then (DS)(QSS) = (DF)NFFQ the risk-minimizing number of futures
contracts to trade, NFF**, is Q F ΔF
• For every $1.00 change in the futures price, the cash market changes
by $0.90
• You want to engage in a risk minimizing hedge.
• Because you are long in the cash market, using a risk minimizing
hedge means that you should take a short position in the futures
market. Concerning the number of contracts:
* Q ΔS
N S
F Q ΔF
F
N * (1000/100) (0.9/1.0)
F
N* 9
F
Note
* Q ΔS
N S
F Q ΔF
F
N* (410,000/42,000) (0.9837)
F
N* 9.60
F
Example 2, Cont.
* Q ΔS
N S
F Q ΔF
F
N* (410,000/42,000) (0.9837)
F
N* 9.60
F