THE FUTURE SECURITY

ENVIRONMENT: IMPLICATIONS FOR

THE CANADIAN ARMY

PETER GIZEWSKI
STRATEGIC ANALYST
DRDC/CORA
DLCD/LAND FUTURES

AUGUST 2007
 1) BACKGROUND

Study of Future Security Environment - Central

• Supports “conceive” piece of Army development process
(Sets context).
• Supports scenario development, war gaming,
experimentation and ultimately force development and
employment (through continuous monitoring of
developments in security environment – domestic and
international).
 1) BACKGROUND
cont’d.

Methods:
• Historical Analysis.
• Trend Analysis and examination of
alternative futures.
• Scenario Development and Mind Mapping
(Brainstorming Exercises).
 1) BACKGROUND
cont’d.

Products:

THE FORCE EMPLOYMENT

CONCEPT FOR CANADA’S ARMY
OF TOMORROW

LAND OPERATIONS
2015
ADAPTIVE
DISTRIBUTED
OPERATIONS
 1) BACKGROUND
cont.’d.

Products:
con’t’d.

Canada’s Army
of Tomorrow
Concepts for Land
Operations 2015

Major Andrew B. Godefroy CD

Ph.D.
Editor
 2) FUTURE SECURITY
ENVIRONMENT:
Key Findings:
• Environment characterized by continual -- often
rapid -- change.
• High volatility and uncertainty.
• Prediction difficult. Confounds military planning.
• Some trends clear.
• Indicate future threats and character of responses
needed to address them.
2) FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
Trends:
Globalization Rapid Scientific &
Power Shifts in the Technological Innovation
International System
Demographic Shifts
Resource Scarcities
Disease

State Weakness and Collapse Rising Significance of

Non-State Actors
Identity & Distributional
Issues
2) FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
cont’d.

Possible Futures:

Rough Competing
Status Quo Power Blocs

Post-
Westphalian Global
World Community
 3) FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
cont’d.

“Probable” Challenges:

Armed conflicts will be primarily:

- identity and/or deprivation-based,
- intra- rather than inter-state,
- asymmetric/irregular and protracted rather than symmetric.
- South-North or South-South in origin, and:
- will occur in complex -- chiefly urban -- terrain.
• Humanitarian crises and complex emergencies – especially in
developing world – will continue.
 3) IMPLICATIONS
Most Likely Least Likely

Conflict but Limited Warfare

Regional Limited
Conventional Nuclear
Peace Counter War War
Support Insurgency

Local Global Global

Aid to Civil Conventional Conventional Nuclear
Power War War War
(Police Ops) (Civil War)

Humanitarian Stabilization Ops: High Intensity Ops:

Ops Irregular Warfare Combined & Joint Ops

Asymmetric War

Infrastructure / Information Warfare

 3) IMPLICATIONS
cont’d.

•Situation not entirely new (i.e. terrorism,

irregular and guerrilla warfare, limited wars
have long history).

•But today, all actors – small in particular --

more empowered to conduct lethal conflict than
ever before (result of globalization and its
consequences).
 3) IMPLICATIONS
cont’d.

•Adversaries - increased capacity to organize, network

and to mount challenges - moral, political and military
(e.g. cell phones, internet, inexpensive travel,
availability of weapons such as IEDs RPGs, mortars
and “weapon-related” technologies. Much highly
accessible, “off the shelf.”).

•Allows for increased understanding, agility and

adaptability, reach, lethality and effectiveness (better
means for exploiting Western strengths and weaknesses
– e.g. democratic values, interconnectedness,
technological prowess, etc.) .
 3) IMPLICATIONS
cont’d.

•Battle-space will be increasingly:

- complex
- multi-dimensional,
-non-linear,
-uncertain, and
-lethal.
•Conflict will occur on variety of fronts (moral, socio-
political, economic, military, abroad and at home).
• Enemies – greater capacity to rapidly adapt to Western
thinking and strategy.
 3) IMPLICATIONS
cont’d.

• Governments – strained capacity to cope with

challenges (multi-tasking, bureaucratic turf wars,
ministerial agendas, etc.).
• International organizations will confer legitimacy, but
problems operationally (UN continues to face major
challenges).
• Regional organizations and alliances increase in
credibility.
• NGOs/IGOs – gain power and credibility.
 3) IMPLICATIONS
cont’d.

•Poses challenges for governments and for

militaries.

Regarding the Army, it must be more:

• adaptive
• dispersed
• networked
.
• agile
• combat capable, and
•sustainable.
 3) IMPLICATIONS
cont’d.

•Must also be more capable of harnessing human

resources “beyond itself” in meeting future
challenges (i.e. adopt a more joint, interagency,
multinational and public approach).
 4) RESPONSES
Land Futures Response: The Adaptive, Dispersed Force

Agile : Plan & conduct operations faster than adversary

can react.
Lethal & Non-lethal: Apply lethal & non-lethal effects
Net-enabled: Networked land forces supported by joint
sensor, fire support, & C2 systems that provide a level of
SA, mobility, & effects that overwhelm the adversary’s
ability to react
Multi-purpose for increased responsiveness, flexibility, &
agility, and;
Full Spectrum: Capable of participating in all aspects of
a whole of government campaign conflict spectrum
 4) RESPONSES
cont’d.

Rationale:
•In world of rapid change and uncertainty – flexibility
and adaptation are essential (in thought and action).
•Provides hedge against uncertainty.
•Capacity to interact/network with a wide variety of
organizations and agencies over extended distances also
important.
 5) PROGRESS AND “NEXT STEPS”

•Degree Land Future’s vision realized – still unclear.

Potential Obstacles:
–organizational inertia and conservatism,
–excessive focus on here and now,
–practical and technological hurdles,
–budgetary considerations.
 5) PROGRESS AND “NEXT STEPS”

•Endorsed by Army Leadership – to be increasingly

integrated in Doctrine, Procedures and Practices
•Process gradual, but underway (e.g. further conceptual
elaboration, experimentation and gaming, doctrinal
development, etc.).
•Additional Future’s study – Future Army: 2040
(currently underway).
 6) CONCLUSIONS
•Work on future security environment “alive and well”
in Canada’s Land Force.
•Fundamental to capability development and security.
•Environment likely to pose significant challenges
•Increasingly complex, multi-dimensional.
•Specter of able, intelligent, adaptive adversaries
(taking variety of forms, using novel strategies, tactics
and capabilities, on numerous fronts).
•Must guide CF transformation.
•Strongly supports continued investment in “Futures
analysis.”