Target Sizing

An Iterative Optimization Problem

• The link between anticollision and target sizing is the
use of survey errors
• With anticollision we need sufficient surveying to
avoid other wells
• We also need to allow sufficient space for future wells
• And we need to meet our geological targets
• This needs to be planned at least cost with the most
efficiency
 Error Distribution

34% 34%

13.5% 13.5%

2.35% 2.35%
0.15% 0.15%
 3  2  1  1  2  3

68%

95%

99.7%
 Position Uncertainty

• Because 95% is the level of confidence most widely used by statisticians,

position uncertainties are most commonly quoted at the 2 sigma level.
• The direction of minimum and maximum variation are always perpendicular
and together are called the standard error ellipse.
 Confidence Levels and Sigma Values
• Scaling occurs depending on the dimensionality…
Sigma Value
1.96 2.45 2.80
1.00 1.51 1.65 1.88 2.15 2.50 2.58 3.03 3.37

68%1 68%2 90%1 68%3 90%2 90%3 99%1 99%2 99%3

95%1 95%2 95%3

Confidence Level
• TVD error in 3d is 43% larger than in 1d…
• A 10m TVD error in 1D would be scaled to 14.3m in
3D
Target Sizing – 1D

Use the 1D TVD uncertainty to

estimate survey error in the vertical
plane with no regard for lateral or
along-hole errors
Target Sizing – 1D
Target Sizing – Plane 2D Target

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For low angle well – use
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For horizontal wells use

major and vertical axes
Target Sizing – Plane 2D Target

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Semi-Major Axis
Survey Errors
Target Sizing – Plane 2D Target

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Driller's Target
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Semi-Major Axis
Survey Errors
Target Sizing – 2D
 Target Aspect Shortening
Geological Target Truncation Effect

Planned Trajectory

Highside Uncertainty

Truncated Driller's
Side View Target

Planned Trajectory

Plan View
 3D Target Volume

Uses 3D 95% = 2.79 sigma (= anticollision scan)

Target Sizing – 3D
 Drilling Target
• Eight of the 100 surveys
represented by the ellipse fall
outside the geological target if
we penetrate at the blue dot

• A 92% inclusion probability

• We need to penetrate the

target closer to the center to
increase our odds
 Drilling Target
• A drilling target with an inclusion probability
of 95% is a simple boundry within the
geologic target that when penetrated keeps the
95% EOU within the geologic target
• In many cases the uncertainty is much smaller
than the geologic target and the drilling target
can be defined at much higher confidence
99%
• ERD wells and high approach angles may
require extending the geologic target,
enhanced survey program or a change to the
well profile
 Conservative Method
• Acceptable for low angle wells
• Geologic target radius – EOU semi
major axis = Drilling Target radius
• Geologic target 200’ radius
• EOU semi-major axis 100’
• Drilling target radius 100’
• Achieving the drilling target
guarantees penetrating the geologic
target at 95 % confidence