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Chapter 8 - Hypothesis Testing
Chapter 8 - Hypothesis Testing
Chapter 10
Hypothesis Testing
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-1
Chapter Goals
After completing this chapter, you should be
able to:
Formulate null and alternative hypotheses for
applications involving
a single population mean from a normal distribution
a single population proportion (large samples)
Formulate a decision rule for testing a hypothesis
Know how to use the critical value and p-value
approaches to test the null hypothesis (for both mean
and proportion problems)
Know what Type I and Type II errors are
Assess the power of a test
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-2
What is a Hypothesis?
A hypothesis is a claim
(assumption) about a
population parameter:
population mean
Example: The mean monthly cell phone bill
of this city is μ = $42
population proportion
Example: The proportion of adults in this
city with cell phones is p = .68
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-3
The Null Hypothesis, H0
H0 : μ 3 H0 : X 3
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-4
The Null Hypothesis, H0
(continued)
proven guilty
Refers to the status quo
Always contains “=” , “≤” or “” sign
May or may not be rejected
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-5
The Alternative Hypothesis, H1
Is the opposite of the null hypothesis
e.g., The average number of TV sets in U.S.
homes is not equal to 3 ( H1: μ ≠ 3 )
Challenges the status quo
Never contains the “=” , “≤” or “” sign
May or may not be supported
Is generally the hypothesis that the
researcher is trying to support
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-6
Hypothesis Testing Process
Claim: the
population
mean age is 50.
(Null Hypothesis:
Population
H0: μ = 50 )
Now select a
random sample
Is X 20 likely if μ = 50?
If not likely, Suppose
the sample
REJECT mean age Sample
Null Hypothesis is 20: X = 20
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.
Reason for Rejecting H0
Sampling Distribution of X
X
20 μ = 50
If H0 is true
If it is unlikely that ... then we
we would get a reject the null
sample mean of ... if in fact this were hypothesis that
this value ... the population mean… μ = 50.
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-8
Level of Significance,
H0: μ ≥ 3
H1: μ < 3
Lower-tail test 0
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-10
Errors in Making Decisions
Type I Error
Reject a true null hypothesis
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-11
Errors in Making Decisions
(continued)
Type II Error
Fail to reject a false null hypothesis
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-12
Outcomes and Probabilities
Actual
Situation
Decision H0 True H0 False
Do Not
No error Type II Error
Key: Reject
(1 - ) (β)
Outcome H0
(Probability) Reject Type I Error No Error
H0 () (1-β)
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-13
Type I & II Error Relationship
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-14
Factors Affecting Type II Error
All else equal,
β when the difference between
hypothesized parameter and its true value
β when
β when σ
β when n
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-15
Power of the Test
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-16
Hypothesis Tests for the Mean
Hypothesis
Tests for
Known Unknown
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-17
Test of Hypothesis
for the Mean (σ Known)
Convert sample result ( x ) to a z value
Hypothesis
Tests for
σ Known σ Unknown
Alternate rule:
Reject H0 if X μ0 Z ασ/ n
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-20
p-Value Approach to Testing
(continued)
Convert sample result (e.g., x ) to test statistic (e.g., z
statistic )
Obtain the p-value x - μ0
For an upper p - value P(Z , given that H0 is true)
σ/ n
tail test:
x - μ0
P(Z | μ μ0 )
σ/ n
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-22
Example: Find Rejection Region
(continued)
Suppose that = .10 is chosen for this test
= .10
x μ0
Reject H0 if z 1.28
σ/ n
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-23
Example: Sample Results
(continued)
= .10
Critical value
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-28
Lower-Tail Tests
H0: μ ≥ 3
There is only one
critical value, since
H1: μ < 3
the rejection area is
in only one tail
μ x
Critical value
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-29
Two-Tail Tests
In some settings, the
H0: μ = 3
alternative hypothesis does
not specify a unique direction H1 : μ
3
/2 /2
There are two
critical values, x
3
defining the two
Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0
regions of
-z/2 0 +z/2 z
rejection
Lower Upper
critical value critical value
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-30
Hypothesis Testing Example
Test the claim that the true mean # of
TV sets in US homes is equal to 3.
(Assume σ = 0.8)
State the appropriate null and alternative
hypotheses
H : μ = 3 , H : μ ≠ 3 (This is a two tailed test)
0 1
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-31
Hypothesis Testing Example
(continued)
= .05/2 = .05/2
-z = -1.96 0 +z = +1.96
-2.0
Since z = -2.0 < -1.96, we reject the null hypothesis
and conclude that there is sufficient evidence that the
mean number of TVs in US homes is not equal to 3
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-34
Example: p-Value
Example: How likely is it to see a sample mean of
2.84 (or something further from the mean, in either
direction) if the true mean is = 3.0?
x = 2.84 is translated to
a z score of z = -2.0
P(z 2.0) .0228 /2 = .025 /2 = .025
.0228 .0228
P(z 2.0) .0228
p-value
= .0228 + .0228 = .0456 -1.96 0 1.96 Z
-2.0 2.0
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-35
Example: p-Value
(continued)
Compare the p-value with
If p-value < , reject H0
If p-value , do not reject H0
σ Known σ Unknown
x μ0 x μ0
Reject H0 if t t n-1, α/2 or if t t n-1, α/2
s s
n n
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-38
Example: Two-Tail Test
( Unknown)
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-39
Example Solution:
Two-Tail Test
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-41
Proportions
(continued)
Sample proportion in the success category is
denoted by p̂
ˆp x number of successes in sample
n sample size
The sampling
distribution of p̂is Hypothesis
approximately Tests for P
normal, so the test
statistic is a z value:
nP(1 – P) > 9 nP(1 – P) < 9
pˆ P0 Not discussed
z in this chapter
P0 (1 P0 )
n
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-43
Example: Z Test for Proportion
A marketing company
claims that it receives
8% responses from its
mailing. To test this
claim, a random sample
of 500 were surveyed
Check:
with 25 responses. Test
Our approximation for P is
at the = .05 p̂ = 25/500 = .05
significance level.
nP(1 - P) = (500)(.05)(.95)
= 23.75 > 9
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-44
Z Test for Proportion: Solution
Test Statistic:
H0: P = .08
pˆ P0 .05 .08
H1: P . z 2.47
P0 (1 P0 ) .08(1 .08)
08= .05
n 500
n = 500, p̂ = .05
Critical Values: ± 1.96 Decision:
Reject Reject Reject H0 at = .05
Conclusion:
.025 .025
There is sufficient
-1.96 0 1.96 z evidence to reject the
-2.47 company’s claim of 8%
response rate.
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-45
p-Value Solution
(continued)
Calculate the p-value and compare to
(For a two sided test the p-value is always two sided)
Do not reject H0
Reject H0 Reject H0 p-value = .0136:
/2 = .025 /2 = .025
P(Z 2.47) P(Z 2.47)
.0068 .0068
2(.0068) 0.0136
-1.96 0 1.96
Z = -2.47 Z = 2.47
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-46
Using PHStat
Options
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-47
Sample PHStat Output
Input
Output
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-48
Power of the Test
Recall the possible hypothesis test outcomes:
Actual Situation
Decision H0 True H0 False
Key:
Outcome Do Not No error Type II Error
(Probability) Reject H0 (1 - ) (β)
H1 : μ μ0
The decision rule is:
x μ0
Reject H0 if z z α or Reject H0 if x x c μ0 Z ασ/ n
σ/ n
If the null hypothesis is false and the true mean is μ*,
then the probability of type II error is
xc μ *
β P(x x c | μ μ*) P z
σ / n
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-50
Type II Error Example
Type II error is the probability of failing
to reject a false H0
Suppose we fail to reject H0: μ 52
when in fact the true
xc mean is μ* = 50
50 52
Reject Do not reject
H0: μ 52 xc H0 : μ 52
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-51
Type II Error Example
(continued)
50 52
Reject Do not reject
H0 : μ 52
H0: μ 52
xc
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-52
Type II Error Example
(continued)
Here, β = P( x x c ) if μ* = 50
β
50 52
Reject Do not reject
H0 : μ 52
H0: μ 52
xc
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-53
Calculating β
Suppose n = 64 , σ = 6 , and = .05
σ 6
x c μ0 z α 52 1.645 50.766
n 64
(for H0 : μ 52)
So β = P( x 50.766 ) if μ* = 50
50 50.766 52
Reject Do not reject
H0 : μ 52
H0: μ 52
xc
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-54
Calculating β
(continued)
Probability of
type II error:
β = .1539
50 52
Reject Do not reject
H0 : μ 52
H0: μ 52
xc
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-55
Power of the Test Example
If the true mean is μ* = 50,
The probability of Type II Error = β = 0.1539
The power of the test = 1 – β = 1 – 0.1539 = 0.8461
Actual Situation
Decision H0 True H0 False
Key:
Outcome Do Not No error Type II Error
(Probability) Reject H0 1 - = 0.95 β = 0.1539
(The value of β and the power will be different for each μ*)
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-56
Chapter Summary
Addressed hypothesis testing methodology
Performed Z Test for the mean (σ known)
Discussed critical value and p-value approaches to
hypothesis testing
Performed one-tail and two-tail tests
Performed t test for the mean (σ unknown)
Performed Z test for the proportion
Discussed type II error and power of the test
Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 10-57