University School of Business

(MBA)
SUBJECT NAME: Decision Science-II
SUBJECT CODE: 20BAT652

TOPIC OF PRESENTATION
INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY DISCOVER . LEARN . EMPOWER
 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY .

Course Blooms Taxonomy

After undergoing this Course, the students will be able: Level
Outcome

To understand and remember the various probability theories Understand/Reme

CO1 related to different types of random variables mber
Application of graphical method and simplex procedure for solving
CO2 different types of linear programming problems for business Apply
decision making
Solution of numerical examples related to game theory, Analyze
CO3 transportation and assignment models for real life problems
CO4 To evaluate and discriminate the different decision making
Evaluate
environment

CO5
To Formulate Linear programing problems for developing the best Design/Create
solutions to real life industries problems
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The Axioms
If E is an event and is a subset of S, the sample space, then the
following are true:
1. 0 ≤ P(E) ≤1 The probability of an event E is between 0 and 1
inclusive.

2. P( ) = 0 The probability of an empty set is zero. Consequence: IF
P(A ∩ B) = 0 then
A ∩ B =  which implies A and B are mutually exclusive.
3. P(S)=1 The probability of the sample space is 1.
More Axioms
4. The rule for unions in general is P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

5. If A and B are mutually exclusive then P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B).

6.The rule for complimentary events is P(E’) = 1 – P(E).

Examples
• Let E be the event of tossing two dice such that the sum of the face is even. Let F be the event that
the sum of the faces is greater than 9.

• What is the probability of the sum of the faces being even and greater than 9.

• What we are looking for is P(E ∩ F). The only rolls that correspond to that event are (6,4), (4,6), (5,5),
(6,6).

• Thus P(E ∩ F)=4/36=1/9.

• What is the probability of the sum being even or greater than 9.

• Want to compute P(E U F).

• USE AN AXIOM P(E U F)=P(E)+P(F)-P(E ∩ F)=1/2+1/6-1/9=5/9

• Of all flashlights in a large shipment, 15% have a defective
bulb, 10% have a defective battery, and 5% have both defects.
If you purchase a flashlight from the shipment what are the
probabilities of the following:

• A defective light bulb or a defective battery,

• A good bulb or a good battery,

• A good bulb and a good battery.

• L be the event of having a bad light bulb.
• B be the vent of having a bad battery.
• L’ is the event of having a good light bulb.
• B’ is the event of having a good battery.
• P(L)=0.15, P(B)=0.10, P(L ∩ B)=0.05
• The probability of having a bad bulb or bad battery is P(L U B)=P(L)+P(B)- P(L ∩ B)=
0.15+0.10-0.05=0.20=20%.
• The probability of having a good bulb or good battery is P(L’ U B’).
• Using de’Morgan’s law L’ U B’=(L ∩ B)’
• Thus P(L’ U B’) = P((L ∩ B)’)=1-P(L ∩ B)=1-0.05 = 0.95 = 95%
• The last part where we have a good bulb and good battery is P(L’∩B’)=P((L U B)’)=1-
P(L U B)=1-.2=.8=80%
Links
• Video Lecture:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sJ9dFj_ydg
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klzJlbKjCMI
• Lecture Notes:
https://www.probabilitycourse.com/chapter1/1_3_2_probability.php

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 References
TEXT BOOKS
• T1 Levin, R., Rubin, D. 1998. Statistics for Management, 7th Edition, Prentice Hall, India,
ISBN:  9780134762920
• T2 Vohra, N. 2017. Quantitative Techniques in Management, 5th Edition, McGraw Hill Education
Private Limited, India, ISBN: 9789352606276
 
REFERENCE BOOKS
• R1 Taha, H. 2007. Operations Research – An Introduction, 8th Edition, Prentice Hall, India, ISBN:
9780131889230

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Assessment Pattern

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 THANK YOU

For queries get in touch with me at:

ajay.khurana@cumail.in

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