Emission Impact and Health Benefit Assessment

of Electric Bus Fleet in Munich, Germany

Md Atikur Rahman and Shahriar Iqbal Zame
Technical University of Munich
Department of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering
Munich, Germany (17 May, 2021)

Md. Atikur Rahman and Shahriar Iqbal Zame (TUM) I Transportation System in Germany 1
 Agenda
Introduction
The Rise of Electric Vehicles (EVs)
Driving Factors of the EV Market

Background
Transportation and Global Environment
Health Impacts of Emissions

Current Situation in Germany

Sectoral targets in the Climate Action Plan 2050

Research Question
Methodology
Data

Md Atikur Rahman and Shariar Iqbal Zame(TUM)I Transportation System in Germany 2

Introduction
Conventional Electric Hybrid CNG

Bus: H C

Engine: ICE
+ CNG

Fuel:

Diesel Electricity Diesel & Electricity Compressed Natural Gas

Share in EU: 85.0% 4.0% 4.8% 6.2%

Source: ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers' Association

Md Atikur Rahman and Shariar Iqbal Zame(TUM)I Transportation System in Germany 3

The Rise of Electric Vehicles (EVs)

The number of EV worldwide climbed to 10.9 million in 2020 (38% more than 2019).

Germany in third place, with 570.000 EVs on the road in 2021.

Germany Second in new EV registration (264% increase in 2019), behind China.

Global Electric Bus (E-Bus) Market is projected to grow at CAGR 25% to 600 Thousand
Units by 2026.

In Germany, 676 E-Buses were operational by 2020 and 3.100 E-buses are planned for future.
(Automotiveworld, 2021)

Stocks of EVs, charging and battery industries are performing very well. Tesla Inc., Blink
Charging Co, General Motors Company etc. are representing a fast growing industry. (Nasdeq,
2021)

Md Atikur Rahman and Shariar Iqbal Zame(TUM)I Transportation System in Germany 4

Driving Factors of the EV Market
• Zero tailpipe emission – Green tech
perception.
• 40% lower fuel cost than diesel/petrol
vehicles.
• Improving battery technology.
(Ergon Energy Network, 2021)
• Lower vehicle operational costs cost than
diesel/petrol vehicles.
• Reduction of oil dependence.
• Government incentives.
• Less vibration, less noise.

Attractions of EV according to Consumers in Germany [Source: Statista]

31%
27%

21%
17%

4%

Lower vehicle Lower emissions Government Social status Other

operating costs incentives

Md Atikur Rahman and Shariar Iqbal Zame(TUM)I Transportation System in Germany 5

 Background
Transportation and Global Environment

Global Impacts on Greenhouse Gas (GHG)

Global GHG Emissions by Global GHG emissions from Transportation

Economic Sector [IPCC (2014)] Sector 1990-2018 [Statista]
Agriculture (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent)
Forestry
and Other Buidlings 9.0
Land Use 6% 8.26
24%
8.0
7.5
Electricity Transportat
ion 7.01
and Heat 7.0 6.65
Production Industry [PERCEN
25% 21% TAGE] 5.95
6.0
5.43
Other
4.89
Energy 5.04.61
10%

4.0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Md Atikur Rahman and Shariar Iqbal Zame(TUM)I Transportation System in Germany 6

 Transportation and Global Environment
Global GHG emissions by transportation Emissions from different mode of road
sectors, 2018 [Source(s): IEA; ID 1185535] transportation (Grams per passenger per KM)
[Source: BEIS/Defra Greenhouse Gas Conversion Factors]
2019
Shipping Rail 1% Other 2.2%
10.6%

41 Do m e s t ic Ra i l
Aviation
11.6%

Road 43 Ca r ( 4 Pa sse n g e r )
(passenger)
Road (freight)
45.1%
29.4%
104 Bu s

171 Ca r ( 1 Pa sse n g e r )

Md Atikur Rahman and Shariar Iqbal Zame(TUM)I Transportation System in Germany 7

Health Impacts of Emissions

• Mean number of deaths in thousands due

Mortality (aged ≥30 years, excluding
to emissions in Germany (source: Statista)
accidental causes) – long term
29,300 2019
• Hospital admissions for cardiovascular
28,800 2018
disease causes 28,500 2017
• Hospital admissions for respiratory 29,500 2016
disease 30,800 2015
• Acute bronchitis (aged <15 years) 31,500 2014
• Asthma exacerbation (aged <15 years) 33,700 2013
• Asthma exacerbation (aged ≥15 years) 35,300 2012
• Restricted activity days (aged 15–64 36,800 2011
years) 37,800 2010
• Occurrence of respiratory symptoms 36,100 2005
• Lung cancer 42,500 2000
54,800 1995
64,600
1990

Md Atikur Rahman and Shariar Iqbal Zame(TUM)I Transportation System in Germany 8

Current Situation in Germany
 Development of the Climate Action Plan 2050 : Low-carbon economy in Germany 
 55 percent reduction in GHG emissions compared to 1990 within 2030
 Target value of 80 to 95 percent reduction of GHG  in 2050
 Vision 2030: 3000 Electric buses in 5 big cities (Frankfurt Munich, Berlin, Hamburg and
Cologne)

Source: Sustainable Bus,2018 Source: MVG,2020

Md Atikur Rahman and Shariar Iqbal Zame(TUM)I Transportation System in Germany 9

Sectoral targets in the Climate Action Plan 2050
(in millions of tons of CO2 equivalent)

466
Energy sector 358
183

283
Industry 181
143

209
Buildings 119
72

163
Transport 160
98

88
Agriculture 72
61

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

2030 (expected maximum) 2014 1990

Source: Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (2016). Climate Action Plan 2050

Md Atikur Rahman and Shariar Iqbal Zame(TUM)I Transportation System in Germany 10

Research Questions

How much GHG Emission could be reduced by converting the current bus fleet to an all-EV
fleet in Munich?

How much financial health benefits can be achieved by the all-EV fleet in contrast to the
current fleet in Munich?

Md Atikur Rahman and Shariar Iqbal Zame(TUM)I Transportation System in Germany 11

Methodology

Research Question 1

Reduced GHG Emission by Total Conversion =

GHG Emission by Current Fleet – GHG Emission by all-EV fleet

Variables to calculate GHG Emission by Current Fleet:

- Quantity of buses by fuel type
- Age of buses (Standardized into groups, converted into a coefficient)
- Fuel Efficiency (miles per gallon)
- Average distance traveled

Total Gallons of Fuel =

(Fuel Efficiency*Age of bus Coefficient) / Average Distance Travelled

Md Atikur Rahman and Shariar Iqbal Zame(TUM)I Transportation System in Germany 12

Variables for GHG Analysis from Fuel Amount:
- Emission Standards for CO2, CH4 and N2O by fuel.
- Conversion Factors of CH4 and N2O to CO2

GHG Emission by Fuel Type:

GHG Emission for Diesel (including Hybrid) Fleet =

Total Gallons of Diesel * CO2 emission per Gallon Diesel

GHG Emission for CNG Fleet =

Total Gallons of CNG * CO2 emission per Gallon CNG

GHG Emission by Current Fleet =

GHG Emission for Diesel (including Hybrid) Fleet + GHG Emission for CNG Fleet

Md Atikur Rahman and Shariar Iqbal Zame(TUM)I Transportation System in Germany 13

Variables required to calculate GHG Emission by all-EV fleet:
- Quantity of Buses
- Average Distance Traveled
- Average Fuel Economy (in kwh/mile)
- GHG Emissions from Power Generation per kwh

Total kwh fuel consumed by all-EV fleet =

(Average Fuel Economy * Distance Traveled * Quantity of Buses)

GHG Emission by all-EV fleet =

Total kwh fuel consumed by all-EV fleet * GHG Emissions from Power Generation per kwh

Finally, we can calculate from the primary equation,

Reduced GHG Emission by Total Conversion =

GHG Emission by Current Fleet – GHG Emission by all-EV fleet

Md Atikur Rahman and Shariar Iqbal Zame(TUM)I Transportation System in Germany 14

 Research Question 2
Financial health benefit analysis will be conducted with using diesel emission quantifier tool
that is developed by  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Variables to calculate health impact emission

-  Buses travel miles per year

-  Use of fuel per year per bus
-  Particulate matter reduction associated with the elimination of diesel fuel

Health benefit savings = [Total Emission by Bus(ton/year) * Cost of Carbon saving] / Fuel
usage(gal/year) 

This tool consider three type of cost from cost reduction perspective
-  Hospitalization cost
-  Emergency room visit cost
- Cost of absence from  work

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Data Collection
•  Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety.
•  Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) ,Germany
• The database of the Federal Statistical Office, Germany
• Statista
• EDGAR - Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research
• Worldometer
• Climatewatch

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Reference
• ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers' Association. Retrieved from
https://www.acea.be/uploads/press_releases_files/ACEA_buses_by_fuel_type_full-year_20
19.pdf
• Automotive World, 2021. Retrieved from
https://www.automotiveworld.com/news-releases/zsw-electric-cars-on-the-rise-global-count
-climbs-to-10-9-million/#:~:text=automakers%20catching%20up-,Electric%20mobility%20is
%20clearly%20gaining%20momentum.,the%20USA%20with%201.77%20million
• Ergon Energy Network, 2021. Retrieved from
https://www.ergon.com.au/network/smarter-energy/electric-vehicles/benefits-of-electric-vehi
cles
• Statista. Retrieved from
https://www.statista.com/statistics/915113/consumer-incentives-to-use-a-battery-powered-e
lectric-vehicles-germany/
• IPCC (2014). Retrieved from
https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data
• Statista. Retrieved from
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1084096/ghg-emissions-transportation-sector-globally/

Md Atikur Rahman and Shariar Iqbal Zame(TUM)I Transportation System in Germany 17

• IEA, 2021. Retrieved from https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020
• BEIS/Defra Greenhouse Gas Conversion Factors, 2019
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhouse-gas-reporting-conversion-factors-
2020
• Judah Aber(May,2016).Electric Bus Analysis for New York City Transit
• Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (2016).
Climate Action Plan 2050.Retrieved from 
https://www.bmu.de/en/topics/climate-energy/climate/national-climate-policy/greenhouse-ga
s-neutral-germany-2050/#c12737
• Sustaibale Bus,2018.Retrieved from  
https://www.sustainable-bus.com/news/germany-electric-bus-biggest-cities-3000-berlin-ha
mburg-cologne-frankfurt-munich/
• MVG,2020. Retrieved from  
https://www.mvg.de/ueber/mvg-projekte/bus/elektromobilitaet.html#intro

Md Atikur Rahman and Shariar Iqbal Zame(TUM)I Transportation System in Germany 18