Discrete Probability

Distributions
Chapter 5: Discrete Probability
Distributions
5.1 - Random Variables
5.2 - Developing Discrete Probability
Distributions
5.3 - Expected Value and Variance
5.4 - Bivariate Distributions, Covariance
5.5 - Binomial Probability Distribution
5.6 - Poisson Probability Distribution

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Random Variables
• A random variable is a numerical description of the outcome of an
experiment.
• A discrete random variable may assume either a finite number of
values or an infinite sequence of values.
• A continuous random variable may assume any numerical value in an
interval or collection of intervals.
Discrete Probability Distributions
• The probability distribution for a random variable describes how probabilities
are distributed over the values of the random variable.
• We can describe a discrete probability distribution with a table, graph, or
formula.
Types of discrete probability distributions:
• First type: uses the rules of assigning probabilities to experimental outcomes to
determine probabilities for each value of the random variable.
• Second type: uses a special mathematical formula to compute the probabilities
for each value of the random variable.
Discrete Probability Distributions
• The probability distribution is defined by a probability function, denoted by f(x),
that provides the probability for each value of the random variable.
• The required conditions for a discrete probability function are:
Discrete Probability Distributions
• There are three methods for assigning probabilities to random variables:
classical method, subjective method, and relative frequency method.
• The use of the relative frequency method to develop discrete probability
distributions leads to what is called an empirical discrete distribution.
Discrete Probability Distributions
Example: JSL Appliances
Using past data on TV sales, a tabular representation of the probability distribution
for sales was developed.
Number
Units Sold of Days
0 80 0 .40 = 80/200
1 50 1 0.25
2 40 2 0.20
3 10 3 0.05
4 20 4 0.10
.

200
.

1.00

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Discrete Probability Distributions
Example: JSL Appliances

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Discrete Probability Distributions
• In addition to tables and graphs, a formula that gives the probability function,
f(x), for every value of x is often used to describe the probability distributions.
• Several discrete probability distributions specified by formulas are the discrete-
uniform, binomial, Poisson, and hypergeometric distributions.

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Expected Value (1 of 2)

• The expected value, or mean, of a random variable is a measure of its central

location.

• The expected value is a weighted average of the values the random variable
may assume. The weights are the probabilities.
• The expected value does not have to be a value the random variable can
assume.

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Variance and Standard Deviation
• The variance summarizes the variability in the values of a random variable.

• The variance is a weighted average of the squared deviations of a random

variable from its mean. The weights are the probabilities.
• The standard deviation, σ , is defined as the positive square root of the
variance.

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Expected Value (2 of 2)

Example: JSL Appliances

x f(x)
0 .40
1 .25
2 .20
3 .05
4 .10

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Expected Value (2 of 2)

Example: JSL Appliances

x f(x) xf(x)
0 .40 .00
1 .25 .25
2 .20 .40
3 .05 .15
4 .10 .40

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Variance
• Var(x) = Sum(x-
Variance
Example: JSL Appliances
X x–μ (x – μ )2 f(x) (x–μ )2 f(x)
0 –1.2 1.44 .40 .576
1 –0.2 0.04 .25 .010
2 0.8 0.64 .20 .128
3 1.8 3.24 .05 .162
4 2.8 7.84 .10 .784
Variance of daily sales =
Empty cell
Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell

σ 2 = 1.660

Standard deviation of daily sales = 1.2884 TVs

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Bivariate Distributions
A bivariate probability distribution is a probability distribution involving two random
variables.
For example, here are the daily sales at the DiCarlo Motors automobile dealership in
Saratoga, New York and DiCarlo, another dealership in Geneva, New York. The table
shows the number of cars sold at each of the dealerships over a 300-day period.
Geneva 0 1 2 3 4 5 Total
Dealership

0 21 30 24 9 2 0 86

1 21 36 33 18 2 1 111

2 9 42 9 12 3 2 77

3 3 9 6 3 5 0 26

Total 54 117 72 42 12 3 300

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Bivariate Distributions (2 of 3)

Let us define x = number of cars sold at the Geneva dealership and y = the number
of cars sold at the Saratoga dealership. We can now divide all of the frequencies by
the number of observations (300) to develop a bivariate empirical discrete
probability distribution for automobile sales at the two DiCarlo dealerships.
Geneva 0 1 2 3 4 5 Total
Dealership
0 .0700 .1000 .0800 .0300 .0067 .0000 .2867
1 .0700 .1200 .1100 .0600 .0067 .0033 .3700
2 .0300 .1400 .0300 .0400 .0100 .0067 .2567
3 .0100 .0300 .0200 .0100 .0167 .0000 .0867
Total .18 .39 .24 .14 .04 .01 1.0000

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Bivariate Distributions (3 of 3)

The table below shows the expected value for the mean total sales and the standard deviation of total sales
for these two dealerships.
s f(s) sf(s) s – E(s) (s – E(s))2 (s – E(s))2 f(s)
0 .0700 .0000 –2.6433 6.9872 .4891
1 .1700 .1700 –1.6433 2.7005 .4591
2 .2300 .4600 –.6433 .4139 .0952
3 .2900 .8700 .3567 .1272 .0369
4 .1267 .5067 1.3567 1.8405 .2331
5 .0667 .3333 2.3567 5.5539 .3703
6 .0233 .1400 3.3567 11.2672 .2629
7 .0233 .1633 4.3567 18.9805 .4429
8 .0000 .0000 5.3567 28.6939 .0000
N/A N/A

E(s) = 2.6433 N/A N/A

Var(s) = 2.3895

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Covariance
The covariance and/or correlation coefficient are good measures of association
between two random variables.

= (2.3895 – 0.8696 – 1.25)/2

= 0.1350

A covariance of .1350 indicates that daily sales at DiCarlo’s two dealerships have a
positive relationship.

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Correlation
To get a better sense of the strength of the relationship, we can compute the
correlation coefficient.

The correlation coefficient of .1295 indicates there is a weak positive relationship

between the random variables representing daily sales at the two DiCarlo
dealerships. If the correlation coefficient had equaled zero, we would have
concluded that daily sales at the two dealerships were independent.

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Binomial Probability Distribution
Four Properties of a Binomial Experiment
1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n identical trials.
2. Two outcomes, success and failure, are possible on each trial.
3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, does not change from trial to trial.
(This is referred to as the stationarity assumption.)
4. The trials are independent.

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Binomial Probability Distribution (2 of 11)

• Our interest is in the number of successes occurring in the n trials.

• Let x denote the number of successes occurring in the n trials.
• Binomial Probability Function:

where:
x = the number of successes
p = the probability of a success on one trial
n = the number of trials
f(x) = the probability of x successes in n trials
n! = n(n – 1)(n – 2) ….. (2)(1)

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Binomial Probability Distribution (3 of 11)

Binomial Probability Function

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Binomial Probability Distribution
Example: Evans Electronics
Evans Electronics is concerned about a low retention rate for its employees. In
recent years, management has seen a turnover of 10% of the hourly employees
annually.
Thus, for any hourly employee chosen at random, management estimates a
probability of 0.1 that the person will not be with the company next year.
Choosing 3 hourly employees at random, what is the probability that 1 of them
will leave the company this year?

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Binomial Probability Distribution (7 of 11)

Example: Evans Electronics

Using the probability function with p = 0.10, n = 3, and x = 1

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Binomial Probabilities and Cumulative
Probabilities
• developed tables that give probabilities and cumulative probabilities for
a binomial experiment random variable.
• These tables can be found in some statistics textbooks.
• With modern calculators and the capability of statistical software
packages, such tables are almost unnecessary.

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Binomial Probability Distribution (9 of 11)

Using Tables of Binomial Probabilities

n x p = .05 p = .10 p = .15 p = .20 p = .25 p =.30 p = .35 p =.40 p =.45 p =.50

3 0 .8574 .7290 .6141 .5120 .4219 .3430 .2746 .2160 .1664 .1250

3 1 .1354 .2430 .3251 .3840 .4219 .4410 .4436 .4320 .4084 .3750

3 2 .0071 .0270 .0574 .0960 .1406 .1890 .2389 .2880 .3341 .3750

3 3 .0001 .0010 .0034 .0080 .0156 .0270 .0429 .0640 .0911 .1250

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Binomial Probability Distribution (10 of 11)

• The expected value is:

• The variance is:

• The standard deviation is:

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Binomial Probability Distribution (11 of 11)

Example: Evans Electronics

• The expected value is:

• The variance is:

• The standard deviation is:

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Poisson Probability Distribution (1 of 6)

• A Poisson distributed random variable is often useful in estimating the number

of occurrences over a specified interval of time or space.
• It is a discrete random variable that may assume an infinite sequence of values
(x = 0, 1, 2, . . . ).
• Examples of Poisson distributed random variables:
• number of knotholes in 14 linear feet of pine board
• number of vehicles arriving at a toll booth in one hour
• Bell Labs used the Poisson distribution to model the arrival of phone calls.

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Poisson Probability Distribution (2 of 6)

Two Properties of a Poisson Experiment

1. The probability of an occurrence is the same for any two intervals of equal
length.
2. The occurrence or nonoccurrence in any interval is independent of the
occurrence or nonoccurrence in any other interval.
Poisson Probability Function:
where:
x = the number of occurrences in an interval
f(x) = the probability of x occurrences in an interval
μ = mean number of occurrences in an interval
e = 2.71828
x! = x(x – 1)(x – 2) . . . (2)(1)
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Poisson Probability Distribution (3 of 6)

Poisson Probability Function

• Because there is no stated upper limit for the number of occurrences, the
probability function f(x) is applicable for values x = 0, 1, 2, … without limit.
• In practical applications, x will eventually become large enough so that f(x) is
approximately zero and the probability of any larger values of x becomes
negligible.

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Poisson Probability Distribution (4 of 6)

 
Example: Mercy Hospital
Patients arrive at the emergency room of Mercy Hospital at the average rate of 6
per hour on weekend evenings.
What is the probability of 4 arrivals in on a weekend evening?
30 minutes
Using the probability function with = 6/hour = 3/half-hour and x = 4

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Poisson Probability Distribution (5 of 6)

Example: Mercy Hospital

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Poisson Probability Distribution
A property of the Poisson distribution is that the mean and variance are equal.

Example: Mercy Hospital

Variance for number of arrivals during 30-minute periods

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