Inferential Statistics

Discrete Probability Distributions 2

 Concept on probability distributions that are commonly used for discrete random
variables, such as the binomial probability distribution and the uniform probability
distribution. Also the concept of cumulative probability which will be very useful in
our next session on continuous probability distributions.
Probability Without Experiment - I 3
Probability Without Experiment - I 4
Probability Without Experiment - I 5
 Probability Without Experiment - I 6

 What is the probability that you would get the combination of balls
shown below after 4 trials? (One trial = taking out a ball, noting its
colour, and putting it back in the bag).

 
Note that we have changed the contents of the bag — now it has 4 red balls and 1 blue ball.

 What is the probability that you would get exactly 3 red balls after 4 trials? (One
trial = taking out a ball, noting its colour, and putting it back in the bag.)
 Probability Without Experiment - I 7

 Binomial Distribution
 we found the theoretical probability for our game and compared it with the
experimental one. Finding the probability without conducting an experiment means that
we can find the probability using just pen and paper and with minimal effort

 Now, let’s try to generalise it — let’s say that the probability of getting one red ball in
one trial is equal to p. In that case, what would be the probability of all 4 balls being red?
 Probability Without Experiment - I 8

 So, now we have this probability distribution for X (the number of red balls drawn after
4 trials), if the probability of getting a red ball in 1 trial is p:
 Probability Without Experiment - I 9

 The probability distribution for this case is given by the following table (X = number of
red balls drawn after playing the game once).
 Probability Without Experiment - I 10

 This distribution is called the binomial distribution. It can be used to

find the probability of any kind of event, if that event is a series of
yes or no questions

 Phrasing the conditions more formally, the binomial distribution can be used if, for an
experiment:
 The total number of trials is fixed
 Each trial is binary, i.e. has only two possible outcomes, success and failure
 The probability of success is the same for all the trials

 So, the formula for finding binomial probability is given by -

P(X=r)= nCr(p)r(1−p)n−r 
Where n is no. of trials, p is probability of success and r is no. of successes after n trials.
 Probability Distributions - I 11

 A student attempts a test with 10 multiple choice questions, where each question
has 4 possible options. She does not know the correct answer to any of the
questions and just randomly selects one of the 4 options for each of them. The
probability that she would still get 3 questions correct is:
Top of Form
10C3(1/4)10
10C3(3/4)3(1/4)7
10C3(1/4)3(3/4)7

 Now, the test is modified by adding 5 true and false questions to the set of 10
MCQs. The student does not know the answer to the new questions either and
randomly selects true or false for each of them too.
Now, according to binomial distribution, the probability that she would still get 5 of the
15 questions (5 true/false Qs, and 10 MCQs with 4 options) correct is:
Top of Form
15C5(1/4)5(3/4)10
15C5(1/2)5(1/2)10
15C5(1/4)3(1/2)2(3/4)10
 Cumulative Probability 12

 In the previous example, we only discussed the probability of getting an exact value. For
example, we know the probability of X = 4 (4 red balls). But what if the house wants to
know the probability of getting < 3 red balls, as the house knows that for < 3 red balls, the
players will lose and they will make money?
Cumulative Probability 13
Cumulative Probability 14
 Questions 15

 Let’s suppose that a teacher has created an assignment containing three questions, each pertaining to three different levels of
difficulty. Through data collected from her previous batches of students, she has made the following table.
 
 
Level of Question Normal Intermediate High
 
 
The probability that a randomly selected student is able to
0.85      0.6  0.3
solve the question
She now gives the assignment to a group of 10 students to gather feedback. 

 Calculate the probability that at most 2 students are able to solve the high-level question
0.67
0.55
0.83
0.38
• What is the probability that exactly 4 students are able to solve all the 3 questions?
Hint: First you need to calculate the probability that a randomly selected student is able to solve all the 3 questions.
1.56%
4.25%
2.23%
1.22%
• After all the 10 students attempted the test, she found that 7 students were able to solve the normal level question, 5
students were able to solve the intermediate level question and only 2 students were able to solve the high-level
question. What was the theoretical probability that such a situation would have occurred?
1.2%
3%
0.6%
1.5%