There are three main theories about corporate dividend policies:
1) The dividend irrelevance theory states that investors do not care about dividends.
2) The bird-in-hand theory argues that investors prefer higher dividends as they are less risky than potential capital gains.
3) The tax preference theory suggests investors prefer lower dividends to benefit from lower capital gains tax rates.
Empirical evidence has not clearly supported any one theory. Managers use judgment based on analysis when setting dividend policies.
There are three main theories about corporate dividend policies:
1) The dividend irrelevance theory states that investors do not care about dividends.
2) The bird-in-hand theory argues that investors prefer higher dividends as they are less risky than potential capital gains.
3) The tax preference theory suggests investors prefer lower dividends to benefit from lower capital gains tax rates.
Empirical evidence has not clearly supported any one theory. Managers use judgment based on analysis when setting dividend policies.
There are three main theories about corporate dividend policies:
1) The dividend irrelevance theory states that investors do not care about dividends.
2) The bird-in-hand theory argues that investors prefer higher dividends as they are less risky than potential capital gains.
3) The tax preference theory suggests investors prefer lower dividends to benefit from lower capital gains tax rates.
Empirical evidence has not clearly supported any one theory. Managers use judgment based on analysis when setting dividend policies.
Other dividend policy issues • There are few other things effect the dividend policies • There are three theories: • Dividends are irrelevant: Investors don’t care about payout. • Bird in the hand: Investors prefer a high payout. • Tax preference: Investors prefer a low payout, hence growth. Dividend Irrelevance Theory • Investors are indifferent between dividends and retention-generated capital gains. If they want cash, they can sell stock. If they don’t want cash, they can use dividends to buy stock. • Theory is based on unrealistic assumptions -no taxes or brokerage costs • Modigliani-Miller support irrelevance Bird-in-the-Hand Theory • Investors think dividends are less risky than potential future capital gains, hence they like dividends. • If so, investors would value high payout firms more highly, i.e., a high payout would result in a high P0. • Gordon supported this theory Tax Preference Theory • Retained earnings lead to long-term capital gains, which are taxed at lower rates than dividends: 20% vs. up to 39.6%. Capital gains taxes are also deferred. • This could cause investors to prefer firms with low payouts, i.e., a high payout results in a low P0 Implications of 3 Theories for Managers
Theory Implication
Irrelevance Any payout OK
Bird in the hand Set high payout Tax preference Set low payout Possible Stock Price Effects Stock Price ($) Bird-in-Hand 40
30 Irrelevance
20 Tax preference 10
0 50% 100% Payout
Which theory is most correct? • Empirical testing has not been able to determine which theory, if any, is correct. • Thus, managers use judgment when setting policy. • Analysis is used, but it must be applied with judgment. Why the firms pay dividends • Despite the tax disadvantage of dividends and the costs associated with external equity issues, firms pay dividends. • There are several reasons for paying dividends. • Possible reasons for paying dividends are: • investors preference, • information signalling and • clientele effects. PLAUSIBLE REASSONS FOR PAYING DIVIDENDS • INVESTORS PREFERENCE FOR DIVIDENDS: • if taxes and transaction costs are ignored, dividends and capital receipts should be perfect substitutes. But still there is demand for dividends. • Shefrin and statman offered explanations for the demand of the dividends are because of the behavioural principles. • Due to aversion for regret investors prefer dividends than capital gains. “information content,” or “signaling,” hypothesis • Stock price changes after dividend increase or decrease do not demonstrate a preference for dividends over retained earnings, rather such price changes simply indicate that dividend announcements have information content, or signalling about the future earnings. • A raise in the pay out ratio indicates that the management is anticipating higher earnings in the future • The reduction in the pay out ratio is a signal that management forecasts poor future earnings the “clientele effect” • Clientele: different groups of stockholders that prefer different dividend pay out policies. • Ex: The low income aged people and the young people who are in their peak earning years. • High payout ratio satisfies low income aged shareholder, young shares holders prefer low payout ratio with high growth • All this suggests clientele effect exists, which means that firms have different clienteles and the clienteles have different preference • Changing dividend policy might upset one category of the clientele and have negative effect on share price. • Hence, company should follow a stable dependable dividend policy. the “residual dividend model The firms optimal pay out ratio is set equal to net income minus the amount of retained earnings necessary to finance firm’s optimal capital budget Dividend= net income- retained earnings required to help finance new investments Dividends= net income-[ (target equity ratio)(total capital budget)]