Power System Operation, and

Handling Wind Power Variability and

Uncertainty in the Grid

J. McCalley
 Outline
1. Basic problems, potential solutions
2. Wind power equation
3. Variability
4. System Control
5. Comments on potential solutions

2
Basic problems with wind & power balance
1. Wind is a variable resource when it is
controlled to maximize its power production
a. Definition: NETLOAD.MW=LOAD.MW+LOSSES.MW-WIND.MW
b. Fact: Wind increases NETLOAD.MW variability in grid
c. Fact: Grid requires GEN.MW=NETLOAD.MW always
d. Fact: “Expensive” (based on marginal cost) gens move (ramp)
quickly, “cheap” gens don’t, some gens do not ramp at all.
e. Problem: Increasing wind increases need for more and
“faster” resources to meet variability, increasing cost of wind.

2. Wind is an uncertain resource

a. Fact: Market makes day-ahead decisions for “unit
commitment” (UC) based on NETLOAD.MW forecast.
b. Fact: Large forecast error requires available units compensate.
c. Problem: Too many (under-forecast) or too few (over-
forecast) units may be available, increasing the cost of wind.
3
 Solutions to variability & uncertainty

1. We have always dealt with variability and uncertainty in the

load, so no changes are needed.
2. Increase MW control capability during periods of expected
high variability via control of the wind power.
3. Increase MW control capability during periods of expected
high variability via more conventional generation.
4. Increase MW control capability during periods of expected
high variability using demand control.
5. Increase MW control capability during periods of expected
high variability using storage.

4 4
 Power production
Wind power equation
Mass flow rate is the mass of
Swept area At of turbine blades: substance which passes through
a given surface per unit time.
The disks have larger cross
sectional area from left to
right because
• v1 > vt > v2 and
v1 vt v2• the mass flow rate must
be the same everywhere
within the streamtube
(conservation of mass):
Q1  Qt  Q2
A1v1  At vt  A2 v2

v ρ=air density (kg/m3)

Therefore, A 1 < At < A 2

x
5
 Power production
Wind power equation
x
1. Wind velocity: v  2. Air mass flowing: m  Ax
t m At x
3. Mass flow rate at swept area: Qt    At vt
t t
4a. Kinetic energy change: 4b. Force on turbine blades:
1
KE  m v12  v22   F  ma  m
v m
 v  Qt v1  v2
t t
 
2
5a. Power extracted: 5b. Power extracted:
P
KE 1 m 2 2 1
t

2 t
 
v1  v2  Qt v12  v22
2
  
P  Fvt  Qt vt v1  v2 
6a. Substitute (3) into (5a): 6b. Substitute (3) into (5b):
P  (1 / 2) At vt (v12  v22 ) 7. Equate P  At vt2 (v1  v2 )
 (1 / 2)vt (v12  v22 )  vt2 (v1  v2 )  (1 / 2)vt (v1  v2 )(v1  v2 )  vt2 (v1  v2 )  (1 / 2)(v2  v1 )  vt
8. Substitute (7) into (6b):P  At ((1 / 2)(v1  v2 ))2 (v1  v2 )  At (v12  v22 )(v1  v2 )
At v13 v2 2 v2 4
9. Factor out v1 : P  4 (1  ( v ) )(1  v )
3
6
1 1
 Power production
Wind power equation
10. Define wind v2 This ratio is fixed for a given
a
stream speed ratio, a: v1 turbine & control condition.

11. Substitute a into P

At v13
(1  a 2 )(1  a )
power expression of (9): 4

12. Differentiate and find a

P At v13
a

4
 
 2a (a  1)  (1  a 2 )  0
which maximizes function:  2a 2  2a  1  a 2  3a 2  2a  1  0
(3a  1)(a  1)  0  a  1 / 3, a  1
13. Find the maximum power At v13 1 4 At v13 8 4 8 At v13
by substituting a=1/3 into P (1  )( )  
4 9 3 4 93 27
(11):

7
 Power production
Wind power equation
14. Define Cp, the power (or performance) coefficient, which
gives the ratio of the power extracted by the converter, P, to
the power of the air stream, Pin.
power extracted At v13
P (1  a 2 )(1  a )
by the converter 4

power of the
air stream
Pin 
KE 1 m 2
t

2 t
 1
2
 1
2
1
v1  0  Q1v12  At v1v12  At v13
2
At v13
(1  a 2 )(1  a) 1
P 1
Cp   4
1
 (1  a 2 )(1  a) P  C p Pin  C P At v13
Pin At v13 2 2
2
15. The maximum value of Cp occurs when its numerator
is maximum, i.e., when a=1/3:
P 1 8 4 16 The Betz Limit!
Cp   ( )( )   0.5926
Pin 2 9 3 27
8
 Power production
Cp vs. λ and θ
u: tangential velocity of blade tip
u R
Tip-speed ratio:   ω: rotational velocity of blade
v1 v1 R: rotor radius
v1: wind speed

Pitch: θ

GE SLE 1.5 MW
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 Power production
Wind Power Equation
1
P  C p Pin  C P ( ,  ) At v1
3

2
So power extracted depends on
1.Design factors:
• Swept area, At
2.Environmental factors:
• Air density, ρ (~1.225kg/m3 at sea level)
• Wind speed v3
3. Control factors affecting performance coefficient CP:
• Tip speed ratio through the rotor speed ω
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 Power production
Cp vs. λ and θ
u: tangential velocity of blade tip
u R
Tip-speed ratio:   ω: rotational velocity of blade
Important concept #1: v1 v1 R: rotor radius
The control strategy of all US turbines today v1: wind speed
is to operate turbine at point of maximum
energy extraction, as indicated by the locus
of points on the black solid line in the figure.

Important concept #2:

• This strategy maximizes the energy
produced by a given wind turbine.
• Any other strategy “spills” wind !!!

Important concept #3:

• Cut-in speed>0 because blades need
minimum torque to rotate.
• Generator should not exceed rated power
• Cut-out speed protects turbine in high
winds GE SLE 1.5 MW
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 Power production
Usable speed range

Cut-in speed (6.7 mph) Cut-out speed (55 mph)

12
Wind Power Temporal & Spatial Variability

JULY2006
JANUARY2006

Blue~VERY LOW POWER;

Red~VERY HIGH POWER
Notice the temporal variability:
• lots of cycling between blue and red;
• January has a lot more high-wind power (red) than July;

Notice the spatial variability

• “waves” of wind power move through the entire Eastern Interconnection;
• red occurs more in the Midwest than in the East

13
13
Time frame 1: Transient control

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 Time frame 1: Transient control

1-20 seconds

Source: FERC Office of Electric Reliability available at:

www.ferc.gov/EventCalendar/Files/20100923101022-Complete%20list%20of%20all%20slides.pdf
15
 Time frames 2 & 3: Regulation
and Load following
=

100

80

60

RE GULATION IN M E GAWATTS
40

+
20

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100
07:00 07:20 07:40 08:00 08:20 08:40 09:00 09:20 09:40 10:00

Regulation

Load Following Regulation

Every 5 minutes 4 seconds to 3 minutes
16
Source: Steve Enyeart, “Large Wind Integration Challenges for Operations / System
Reliability,” presentation by Bonneville Power Administration, Feb 12, 2008, available at
http://cialab.ee.washington.edu/nwess/2008/presentations/stephen.ppt. 16
Analogy for supply-demand-
frequency relationship

Inflow Supply
Outflow Demand
Water leve lFrequency

17
17
 How Does Power System Handle Variability
Turbine-Gen N
Turbine-Gen …
Turbine-Gen 2
Turbine-Gen 1

ACE=
∆Ptie Secondary control
Primary control controls
output in response to
provides regulation
-10B∆ transient frequency deviations

f
∆Ptie ∆f

B is BA’s frequency
bias in MW/0.1Hz.
B is negative. 18
How Does Power System Handle Variability
Ptie=P1+P2+P3
ACE= ΔPtie – BΔf = ΔPtie +| B|Δf REST OF THE
INTERCONNECTION

ΔPtie=Ptie,act-Ptie,sch
P1 BA P3

P2
Δf=fact-60

If ΔPtie=0, Δf =0, then ACE=0, and generation does not change;

If ΔPtie>0 which means the actual export exceeds the scheduled
export, then this component would make ACE more positive
therefore tending to reduce generation;
If Δf>0 which means the actual frequency exceeds the scheduled
frequency of 60 Hz, then this component would make ACE more
positive therefore tending to reduce generation. 19
 Power Balance Control Levels
Control Name Time Control objectives Function
level frame
1 Primary 1-20 Power balance and transient Transient control
control, seconds frequency
governor
2 Secondary 4 secs-3 Power balance and steady-state Regulation
control, mins frequency
AGC
3 Real-time Every 5 Power balance and economic- Load following and
market mins dispatch reserve provision
4 Day-ahead Every day, Power balance and economic- Unit commitment and
market 24 hrs at unit commitment reserve provision
a time

20
 Why Does Variability Matter?
 NERC penalties for poor-performance
 Consequences of increased frequency variblty:
 Some loads may lose performance (induction motors)
 Relays can operate to trip loads (UFLS), and gen (V/Hz)
 Lifetime reduction of turbine blades
 Frequency dip may increase for given loss of
generation
 Areas without wind may regulate for windy areas
 Consequences of increased ACE variability
(more frequent MW corrections):
 Increased inadvertent flows
 Increase control action of generators
 Regulation moves gen “down the stack” cycling!
1
 Power Balance Control Levels
Regulation component
varies about the mean
and tends to go up as
much as it goes down
and is therefore normal
with 0 mean.

LRk  Lk  LFk
Load regulation Load Load following
component component

1 k T Lk T  Lk T 1  ...  Lk  ...  Lk T 1  Lk T
LFk   i
2T  1 i k T
L 
2T  1
Δt=2 min, 28 min rolling average, so T=7.
Lk 7  Lk 6  ...  Lk  ...  Lk 6  Lk 7
LFk 
15
22
 Power Balance Control Levels
n Consider two
1
2
x   ( xi   x ) 2
random variables,
n i 1
X and Y.
If Z=X+Y, then
2 2 2
z x  y
Hourly Load Variability and Load-Wind Variability When Wind
Penetration is 10%

4000

3500

3000

2500

Freqency
2000

1500

1000

500

0
-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800
Load and Load-Wind Hourly Variability (MW)

Load Hourly Variability Load-Wind Hourly Variability

23
 24

Characterizing Netload Variability

∆T HISTOGRAM Regulation
Measure each ∆T variation for 1 yr (∆T=1min, 5min, 1 hr)
Identify “variability bins” in MW Load following
Count # of intervals in each variability bin
Plot # against variability bin
Compute standard deviation σ.
Loads:
2011: 12600 MW
2013: 12900 MW
2018: 13700 MW
Ref: Growing Wind; Final Report of the NYISO 2010 Wind Generation Study, Sep 2010.
www.nyiso.com/public/webdocs/newsroom/press_releases/2010/GROWING_WIND_-
f
_Final_Report_of_the_NYISO_2010_Wind_Generation_Study.pd
 Solutions to variability & uncertainty
1. Do nothing: fossil-plants provide reg & LF (and die ).
2. Increase control of the wind generation
a. Provide wind with primary control
• Reg down (4%/sec), but spills wind following the control
• Reg up, but spills wind continuously
b. Limit wind generation ramp rates
• Limit of increasing ramp is easy to do
• Limit of decreasing ramp is harder, but good forecasting
can warn of impending decrease and plant can begin
decreasing in advance
3. Increase non-wind MW ramping capability during periods of
expected high variability using one or more of the below:
a. Conventional generation %/min $/mbtu $/kw LCOE,$/mwhr
b. Load control Coal 1-5 2.27 2450 64
c. Storage Nuclear 1-5 0.70 3820 73
d. Expand control areas NGCC 5-10 5.05 984 80
CT 20 5.05 685 95
5 Diesel
25 40 13.81
 How to decide?
First, frequency control for over-frequency conditions, which
requires generation reduction, can be effectively handled by
pitching the blades and thus reducing the power output of the
machine. Although this action “spills” wind, it is effective in
providing the necessary frequency control.
Second, frequency control for under-frequency conditions
requires some “headroom” so that the wind turbine can increase
its power output. This means that it must be operating below its
maximum power production capability on a continuous basis. This
also implies a “spilling” of wind.
Question: Should we “spill” wind in order to provide frequency
control, in contrast to using all wind energy and relying on some 26
other means to provide the frequency control?
Answer: Need to compare system economics between increased
production costs from spilled wind, and increased investment,
maint, & production costs from using storage & conventional gen.
26