Introduction To Political Science: Chapter Vi: Public Opinion

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INTRODUCTION TO POLITICAL SCIENCE

CHAPTER VI: PUBLIC OPINION
Assist. Prof. Dr. Mustafa Karahöyük

O ff i c e : Z - 0 8
Email: mustafakarahoyuk@beykent.edu.tr
Political Science: An Introduction
Public Opinion
(Peter Turnley/Corbis)
Copyright @ 2012, 2010, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
Public Opinion 3
Public opinion – citizens’ reactions to current, specific issues and events; different
from political culture.
+Public Opinion
 Public opinion – citizens’ reactions to current, specific issues and

events; different from political culture
 Public opinion is important in a democracy, as elections provide only a
crude expression of the public’s will.
 Elections may indicate what voters generally think of a candidate
overall but rarely focus on specific issues. Public opinion surveys fill
in the details so officials know what people think about specific
problems, such as health care or a war.
 Public opinion is often led or manipulated by interest groups. Bringing
grievances to public attention, especially when the media watches, can
generate widespread sympathy.
+Public Opinion
 Any government is vulnerable to public opinion.

 Government by sheer violence and coercion cannot last long.
Lack of public support ended regimes (Soviet Union ).
 Many different factors help shape public opinion in different
countries and cultures
 Salience – the importance of given issues in public opinion or the
characteristics of the public holding various opinions, the degree to which
categories and issues affect the public opinion of a country.
+Public Opinion
 Political culture and public opinion are linked but are not the
same. Political culture focuses on long-standing values,
attitudes, and ideas that people learn deeply.
 Public opinion concerns people’s reactions to specific and
immediate policies and problems, such as sending troops
overseas or voting intentions.
 Public opinion is not the same as individual opinion.
 Public opinion refers to political and social issues, not private
matters.
+Public Opinion
 Public opinion does not necessarily imply that citizens have

strong, clear, or united convictions; such unity is rare.
 So-called public opinion often involves several small,
conflicting groups, plus many who are undecided, plus an even
larger number with no interest or opinion on the matter.
 On most subjects, public opinion is an array of diverse attitudes
that can change quickly.
+The Shape of Public Opinion:
Social Class
 Social Class – a broad layer of society, usually based on

income and often labeled lower, middle, and upper.
 Hard to measure; Two possible methods:
 Subjective method is simply to ask people what they are
 Objective way is to obtain data such as income or quality of
neighborhood
 Class matters, especially in combination with other factors,

such as region or religion
+The Shape of Public Opinion: Education
Educational level is related to social class, and this contributes to the polarization.
 Often has a split political impact, making people more liberal on noneconomic
issues but more conservative on economic issues
 College-educated people are more tolerant, favor civil rights, and understand
different viewpoints. But on economic issues, many of them are skeptical of efforts
to redistribute income by higher taxes on the upper brackets— which happen to be
them—and welfare measures.
 Working class Americans want higher wages but more intolerant on issues of race,
lifestyle, and patriotism
+The Shape of Public Opinion:
Region
 Every country has regions more conservative or more liberal

than the country as a whole
 A country’s outlying regions usually harbor resentment against
the capital, creating center–periphery tensions
 Once a region gets set in its politics, it stays that way for a long
time. Region plays a big role in the politics
 Regional politics very persistent; region can trump political
party
+ The Shape of Public Opinion
 Other factors shaping public opinion:
 Religion (different religions and religious views play a role in shaping public
opinion)
 Age (According to life cycle theory, people change opinions as they get old; the
more they get old, the more conservative they become)
 Gender (men and women might have different political choices)
 Ethnic Group (ethnicity affects political views)
Classic Opinion Curves
 On a matter on which there are few doubters, the opinion

curve is skewed to one side, a “J-curve”
 On many issues, public opinion forms the familiar “bell-shaped
curve,” or unimodal distribution, which shows few people at the
extremes and most in the moderate center
 Some issues are very polarizing and divide the electorate into distinctly
different positions, a bimodal distribution or “U-curve,”where the
extremes are bigger than the center.
+ Public Opinion Polls
 Opinion distribution does not often fall into well-defined

patterns, mainly because most people most of the time
pay little attention to politics.
 On most issues, only a small portion of the total public is

attentive enough to news reports and editorials to hold a
clear opinion.
+ Public Opinion Polls
 People can be for, against, or undecided about an issue.

But the factors of uncertainty and changeability are so
prominent in many areas that we cannot be totally
confident when polls report percent for and against. Do
not blindly follow poll data.
 Opinion distribution does not often fall into well-defined
patterns, mainly because most people most of the time
pay little attention to politics. They have weak interest in
issues that do not directly touch them and acquire no
information about most issues.
+Public Opinion Polls
 Polling Techniques:
 Selecting the sample – Must have a random sample for accuracy
 Reaching the sample – Replies unlikely to be very representative, as

responders are self-selected; telephone surveys have problems as well
 Asking the questions – unbiased wording of questions to avoid slanting

responses is important
+How Reliable are the Polls?
 Public opinion is volatile, able to change quickly under the

impact of events
 Public opinion surveys are generally reliable, provided we

recognize their limits
+American Opinion
 Presidential Ratings
 Presidents usually start with high ratings early in their term (honeymoon),
but ratings decline as problems accumulate
 Presidents experience “spikes” in public support when crises (rally events)

happen; these are not enduring though
 Some suspect that presidents, especially later in their terms of office,

deliberately try to appear decisive in a dramatic way to boost their
sagging popularity
+American Opinion
 Liberals and Conservatives

 More Americans call themselves conservative than liberal, though many
still call themselves moderates
 Such unimodal distributions (variations on a bell-shaped curve)

are standard in all industrialized democracies, a fact that makes
democracy possible
+American Opinion
 People tend to pay attention to issues that impact them directly;

demonstrate selective perception
 Some groups will be satisfied while others dissatisfied
 The attentive public, although fewer in number, has more political

impact because they have ideas and articulate them, demonstrating
political competence
+Almond’s Three Publics
 Gabriel Almond proposed three American publics:
 A general public, a majority that focuses mainly on their immediate

concerns, e.g., little interest in foreign policy unless country in a war or
international crisis
 An attentive public, better educated who follow more abstract political

concerns such as foreign policy. Elites pay attention to them for they
might mobilize the general public
 A policy and opinion elite, highly influential people involved in policy

such as members of Congress and appointed officials, who devise and
articulate polices to the other publics
+Is Polling Fair?
 Polls do not merely monitor public opinion; they also help make it
 News media may highlight polls showing one candidate leading another by a wide
margin – this devastates underdog’s campaign in terms of getting supporters and
contributions
 Exit polls interviewing voters as they leave balloting locations can affect voters in
later time zones, skewing election results
 Some networks impose self-discipline by not releasing poll results until all polls
across the country have closed

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INTRODUCTION TO POLITICAL SCIENCE

Assist. Prof. Dr. Mustafa Karahöyük

 Public opinion – citizens’ reactions to current, specific issues and

 Any government is vulnerable to public opinion.

 Public opinion does not necessarily imply that citizens have

 Social Class – a broad layer of society, usually based on

 Class matters, especially in combination with other factors,

 Every country has regions more conservative or more liberal

 Other factors shaping public opinion:

 Gender (men and women might have different political choices)

 Ethnic Group (ethnicity affects political views)

 On a matter on which there are few doubters, the opinion

 Opinion distribution does not often fall into well-defined

 On most issues, only a small portion of the total public is

 People can be for, against, or undecided about an issue.

 Selecting the sample – Must have a random sample for accuracy

 Reaching the sample – Replies unlikely to be very representative, as

 Asking the questions – unbiased wording of questions to avoid slanting

 Public opinion is volatile, able to change quickly under the

 Public opinion surveys are generally reliable, provided we

 Presidents experience “spikes” in public support when crises (rally events)

 Some suspect that presidents, especially later in their terms of office,

 Liberals and Conservatives

 Such unimodal distributions (variations on a bell-shaped curve)

 People tend to pay attention to issues that impact them directly;

 Some groups will be satisfied while others dissatisfied

 The attentive public, although fewer in number, has more political

 Gabriel Almond proposed three American publics:

 A general public, a majority that focuses mainly on their immediate

 An attentive public, better educated who follow more abstract political

 A policy and opinion elite, highly influential people involved in policy

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