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  • Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics For Optimization of Subsea Gas Pipeline Inspection

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    Indera Sadikin
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    This document proposes using probabilistic fracture mechanics to optimize inspection schedules for subsea gas pipelines. It summarizes that pipeline failures often start with cracks, and failure occurs when stresses exceed fracture toughness, causing either stable or unstable crack growth. It then describes modeling crack propagation through finite element analysis and stochastic simulation of load, crack, and material properties. The results can determine an inspection schedule that maintains a high reliability, like 99.99%, by simulating only the most severe combinations of probabilistic parameters instead of all possibilities.

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    Probabilistic - Pipeline 2007

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    This document proposes using probabilistic fracture mechanics to optimize inspection schedules for subsea gas pipelines. It summarizes that pipeline failures often start with cracks, and failure occurs when stresses exceed fracture toughness, causing either stable or unstable crack growth. It then describes modeling crack propagation through finite element analysis and stochastic simulation of load, crack, and material properties. The results can determine an inspection schedule that maintains a high reliability, like 99.99%, by simulating only the most severe combinations of probabilistic parameters instead of all possibilities.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    2 views37 pages

    Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics For Optimization of Subsea Gas Pipeline Inspection

    Uploaded by

    Indera Sadikin
    This document proposes using probabilistic fracture mechanics to optimize inspection schedules for subsea gas pipelines. It summarizes that pipeline failures often start with cracks, and failure occurs when stresses exceed fracture toughness, causing either stable or unstable crack growth. It then describes modeling crack propagation through finite element analysis and stochastic simulation of load, crack, and material properties. The results can determine an inspection schedule that maintains a high reliability, like 99.99%, by simulating only the most severe combinations of probabilistic parameters instead of all possibilities.

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    of 37

    PROBABILISTIC FRACTURE

    MECHANICS FOR
    OPTIMIZATION OF SUBSEA
    GAS PIPELINE INSPECTION
    BY
    INDERA SADIKIN
    DJOKO SUHARTO
    MECHANICAL ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT
    INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG
    INDONESIA
    FREE SPAN
    VON KARMAN
    VORTEX STREET
    PIPE

    CROSS-FLOW
    VIBRATION
    FATIGUE
    FAILURE
    HOW TO PREVENT FAILURE?

     FREE SPAN INSPECTION


    PROBLEM
     EXPENSIVE!

     TIME CONSUMING!
    HOW TO OPTIMIZE?
     INSPECTION SCHEDULE
    FACTOR TO CONSIDER?
     PROBABILITY OF FAILURE

    TIME FOR
    INSPECTION

    INSPECTION
    INTERVAL
    SUMMARY 1
    HOW TO CALCULATE
    PROBABILITY OF FAILURE?
     PROBABILISTIC FRACTURE
    MECHANICS
    FRACTURE MECHANICS
     Most failures begin with crack
    CRACK INITIATED FAILURES

     LEAK

     BREAK
    STRESS
    INTENSITY

    K   a
    FRACTURE
    TOUGHNESS
     KIC
    HOW DOES
    IT FAIL?
     LEAK

     BREAK
    LEAK

     KI
    < KIC
     STABLE CRACK GROWTH

     LESS DANGEROUS
    BREAK

     KI
    ≥ KIC
     UNSTABLE CRACK GROWTH

     CATASTROPHIC!
    SUMMARY 2
    MODELING CRACK
    PROPAGATION
     CRACK CLOSURE TECHNIQUE
    FINITE
    ELEMENT
    ANALYSIS
    CRACK MODEL
    V1
    C2 437.1

    CRACK TIP 410.3

    383.5

    356.7

    330.

    303.2

    276.4

    249.6

    222.8

    196.1

    169.3

    a
    t
    142.5

    115.7

    88.95
    Z
    X 62.17

    Y 35.39
    Output Set: MSC/NASTRAN Case 1
    Deformed(4.937E-8): Total Translation 8.615
    Contour: Solid Von Mises Stress
    FEA RESULT
     NON-DIMENSIONAL STRESS
    INTENSITY PARAMETER
    K   a CRACK
    PROPAGATION

    da/dN
    SUMMARY 3
    PROBABILISTIC FRACTURE
    MECHANICS ANALYSIS
     Analysis variables are probabilistic
    LOAD DATA
    CRACK DATA
     LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION
    MATERIAL DATA
    FRACTURE TOUGHNESS
     MAXIMUM GUMBEL DISTRIBUTION
    MATERIAL DATA
    CRACK PROPAGATION
     NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
    STOCHASTIC
    CRACK GROWTH
    Annual

    Random FAIL OR NOT?

    Random Random
    CRACK GROWTH
    SIMULATION
    DIRECT
    SIMULATION
     All possible combination of
    stochastic parameters are
    simulated

     TIME CONSUMING!
    MODIFIED DIRECT
    SIMULATION
     Only severest block of distribution
    is simulated
     Simulation stopped when no failure
    occurs
    ILLUSTRATION OF MODIFIED
    DIRECT SIMULATION

    Block of lowest Block of highest


    yield strength applied stress
    RESULT

    Inspection
    schedule at
    reliability
    99.99%
    Arigato

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