Presentation on Bootstrapping

Presented By:
Gaurav Chatterjee 07
Subrata Banerjee 21
Rajib Rudra 36
Akashdeep Saha 39
Atanu Saha 57
 BOOTSTRAPPING
It is equivalent to Warm booting…
It is the starting phase of Computer…
 History about the word:
The computer term bootstrap began as a
metaphor in the 1950s. In computers, pressing
a bootstrap button caused a hardwired program
to read a bootstrap program from an input unit
and then execute the bootstrap program which
read more program instructions and became a
self-sustaining process that proceeded without
external help from manually entered
instructions. As a computing term, bootstrap
has been used since at least 1958.
 BOOTSTRAPPING
In statistics, bootstrapping is a
computer-based method for
assigning measures of accuracy to
sample estimates
Bootstrapping is the practice of
estimating properties of an
estimator
Why Bootstrapping???

It is essential in the following fields:

1. Crime Control ( Crime mapping )
2. Risk Management
 3 methods of bootstrapping:

1.Split Half Reliability

2.n-fold validation
3.Monte carlo method
First : Split Half Method
H₀{ µ=µ₀}

x₂
x₁
Second:n-fold validation
Generally n=7

x
Third: Monte carlo method
Whenever no extra data present
The term "Monte Carlo method" was coined in
the 1940s by physicists working on nuclear
weapon projects in the
Los Alamos National Laboratory
What is this method???

1. Draw a square on the ground, then

inscribe a circle within it. Ratio will be π/4.
2. Uniformly scatter some objects of
uniform size throughout the square.
3. Since the two areas are in the ratio
π/4, the objects should fall in the areas in
approximately the same ratio. Thus, counting the
number of objects in the circle and dividing by the
total number of objects in the square will yield an
approximation for π/4.
• The Rand Corporation and the U.S. Air Force
were two of the major organizations
responsible for funding and disseminating
information on Monte Carlo methods as they
began to find a wide application in many
different fields.
Usage:
It is a widely successful method in risk analysis
when compared with alternative methods or
human intuition.
Monte Carlo simulations have been applied in
space exploration and oil exploration, actual
observations of failures, cost overruns and
schedule overruns are routinely better
predicted by the simulations than by human
intuition
Advanced usage of Bootstrapping:
New York Police Department
crime-mapping and hot spots policing programs
Recent research studies suggest that focused
police interventions, such as directed patrols,
proactive arrests, and problem-oriented
policing, can produce significant gains in crime
prevention at high-crime hot spots
The crime mapping technique:
π = 3.14
4=4
so, ultimately if we convert this
ratio into percentage we get apprx

5 78…
according to NYPD with proper
application of Monte-Carlo method as well as Regression
technique 78% of future crime can be plotted based on true
historical data…
Risk Management:
Risk analysis is a part of every decision we make and
this can be done with the help of Monte carlo
simulation
Monte carlo simulation≈ Computerized mathematical
technique for calculating risk in quantitative analysis.
It helps to highlight possible outcomes and their
probability of occurrence which in turn minimize risk.
Monte carlo simulation is used in different sectors to
minimize risk, such as:
Finance sector
Project management sector
Manufacturing sector
Research and development sector
Transportation sector
Oil and Gas sector etc.
How does it works???...
It performs risk analysis by building models of possible
results by substituting a range of values—a probability
distribution—for any factor that has inherent uncertainty.
It then calculates results over and over, each time using a
different set of random values from the probability
functions.
Depending upon the number of uncertainties and the
ranges specified for them, a Monte Carlo simulation could
involve thousands or tens of thousands of recalculations
before it is complete.
Monte Carlo simulation produces distributions of possible
outcome values.
Monte Carlo simulation provides a number of advantages
over deterministic analysis like Split half or n-fold validation:

1. Probabilistic Results
2. Graphical Results
3. Sensitivity Analysis
4. Scenario Analysis
5. Correlation of Inputs
Those all are closely related to normal
distribution
Computerized :
In M S Excel one software named @Risk
Using this method:
1. In Jersey City, about 4 percent of streets and intersection
areas generated nearly half of the city’s narcotics arrests and
almost 42 percent of the disorder arrests (Weisberg and
Green Mazerolle, 2000)
THANKS