IPCC Synthesis Report

Part II - Habiba Gitay

• Climate change: observed and

projected–changes in the mean state,
variability and extreme events
• Observed and projected impacts of
climate change on ecological systems,
socio-economic sectors (including
human health), and approaches to
adapt to climate change
Human activities have changed the composition
of the atmosphere since the pre- industrial era
 Atmosphere
The KP seeks to reduce
This is the 3.3 total emissions by about 0.2
“greenhouse” problem 750
62.3 Estimated Fossil
6.3
Deposits About 16,000
60
Humans 1.6
Plants Driven by
are 500
fossil fuel emissions
perturbing Soil
92.3 90
2000
the carbon
…and land clearing
cycle
Oceans
39,000

Units
Gt C for stores & The oceans and land vegetation are currently
Gt C y-1 for fluxes taking up 4.6 Gt C per year
The Land and Oceans have warmed
Precipitation patterns have changed
 The frequency, persistence and magnitude of El-
Nino events have increased in the last 20 years

El Niño years

La Niña years

The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and droughts throughout the

tropics and subtropics
Sea Levels have risen
 Observed regional changes in temperature have
been associated with observed changes in physical
and biological systems

Examples include:
• non-polar glacier retreat
• reduction in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness in
summer
• earlier flowering and longer growing and breeding
season for plants and animals in the N.H.
• poleward and upward (altitudinal) migration of
plants, birds, fish and insects; earlier spring
migration and later departure of birds in the N.H.
• increased incidence of coral bleaching
Weather-related economic damages have
increased
Global mean surface temperatures have increased
Most of the observed warming in the past 50
years is attributable to human activities
 Greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations,
temperature and sea level are projected to change
Global mean surface temperature is projected to
increase during the 21st century
 Land areas are projected to warm more than the
oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes

Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100

relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1 oC
 Some areas are projected to become wetter,
others drier with an overall increase projected

Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

Mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to
0.88m by 2100, but with significant regional
variations
 Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase
Projected changes during the 21st Examples of impacts
century
• Higher maximum temperatures; • Increased mortality in old people
more hot days and heatwaves in urban areas
over nearly all land areas (very • Damage to crops
likely) • Heat stress on livestock
• Higher minimum temperatures; • Extended range of pests and
fewer cold days frost days and diseases
cold spells over nearly all land • Loss of some crop/fruit
areas (very likely)
• more intense precipitation events • Land slides, mudslides, damage
over many areas (very likely) to property and increased
insurance costs
• increased summer drying over
most mid-latitude continental • Reduced rangeland productivity,
interiors and associated risk of increased wildfires, decreased
drought (likely) hydropower
• increase in tropical cyclone peak
wind intensity, mean and peak • Damage to various ecological and
precipitation intensities (likely) socioeconomic systems
More adverse than beneficial impacts on biological
and socioeconomic systems are projected
Increased water availability in some water-scarce
regions, and decreased water availability in many
water scarce regions
 Initially increased agricultural productivity in some
mid-latitude regions & reduction in the tropics and
sub-tropics even with warming of a few degrees

2020s

2050s

2080s
Significant disruptions of ecosystems from
disturbances such as fire, drought, pest
infestation and invasion of species

Changes in the productivity and

composition of ecological systems, with
coral reefs and boreal forests being most
vulnerable
 Branching coral Brain coral

coral bleaching events are expected to increase

Ecological systems have many interacting
non-linear processes and are thus subject
to abrupt changes and threshold effects
arising from relatively small changes in
driving variables, such as climate.

For example:
Temperature increase beyond a threshold,
which varies by crop and variety, can
affect key development stages of some
crops and result in severe losses in crop
yields.
 Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of
millions of people, due to sea level rise and heavy
rainfall events, especially in Small Island States and low-
lying deltaic areas.
Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with a
sea level rise of one meter - very difficult to adapt due to lack of
adaptive capacity

projected

present
 Effect on human health…

Reduced winter mortality in mid- and high-

latitudes

Increased incidence of heat stress mortality,

and the number of people exposed to vector-
borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue
and water-borne diseases such as cholera,
especially in the tropics and sub-tropics
Developing countries are the most vulnerable to
climate change

• Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought prone

and a large share of the economy is in climate sensitive
sectors
• Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial,
institutional and technological capacity and access to
knowledge
• Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately
upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons
within countries, exacerbating inequities in health status
and access to adequate food, clean water and other
resources.
• Net market sector effects are expected to be negative in
most developing countries
 Adaptation has the potential to reduce adverse
effects of climate change and can often produce
immediate ancillary benefits, but cannot prevent all
damages

• Numerous adaptation options have been

identified that can reduce adverse and enhance
beneficial impacts of climate change, but will incur
costs
• Greater and more rapid climate change would
pose greater challenges for adaptation