Getting Enough Votes to Win

Hamish I. Marshall
About Me
Agenda
• “One more than the other guy” and other lies
– How many votes do you need to win?

• Reconnaissance
– Researching your riding

• The politics of division

– Identifying a winning coalition

• “Stay on Target” and the real enemy

– Getting the votes you need to win
“One more than the other guy”
and other lies
How many votes do you need to
win?
He’s got his, you’d better get yours…

• Which 46%?

• Where do you find them?

• Is 46% even the right number?

• How do you figure out the right number?

The Trouble with Polling
45

40

35

30

25

20
The Trouble with Polling
• Is this good? 40
37
36
35

• Being ahead is always 30

27

good 25

20

• But is it good enough 15

for your riding? 10

0
How many votes do you need
• There is a right answer

• The “other guy” +1

Vote Goals
• How many votes to win?

• Things to look at:

– Traditional support of parties
– Turnout

• Every plan needs a vote goal

West Vancouver –
Sunshine Coast –
Sea to Sky Country
West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast –
Sea to Sky Country
Party Votes Percentage
Conservative 22,891 36.0%
Liberal 23,867 37.5%
NDP 12,766 20.1%
Green 3,966 6.2%
Other 145 0.2%
Turnout List: 93,360 68.3%
 West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast –
Sea to Sky Country
• Expect the list to grow: Say 94,000

• Conservatives win with higher turnout

• So assume 70%

• That means 65,800 votes will be cast

 West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast –
Sea to Sky Country
• Who is the main competition?
• The Liberals.
• What is the minimum for each smaller party?
– NDP – 15%
– Green – 5.5%
• That leaves: 79.5%
• So to win we need: 79.5% / 2 = 39.8%
 West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast –
Sea to Sky Country
• 65,800 voters
• Need 39.8%
• So we need: 26,188 votes

• Round up to 26,250
Reconnaissance

Researching your riding

Types of Research
• Local Election Results Analysis

• Demographics and the MLS

• Neighbourhoods
 What is Local Election Results
Analysis
• We examine:
– Past Results

– Changing support for different parties

– Results for elections of different levels of

government
 Why do Local Election Results
Analysis
• The same reason you do anything in
elections: To Win
• You should do it if:
– You LOST last time – it will show you what
happened and maybe a strategy to win the next
time
– You WON last time – you need to know why you
won, and how to do it again!
 Why do Local Election Results
Analysis
• It can show where you are strong and weak.

• Understand exactly what you have to do to

get more votes next time.

• Anticipate the strategy of other parties.

The best way to understand…
• Is to map…

• Results

• Trends

• Turnout
Why we look at the numbers
• Because the conventional wisdom is usually
wrong

• What people “know,” especially journalists

reflects their biases and hopes not the facts

• When you KNOW what happened, you can

plan to win next time
Demographics and the MLS
• Poll by Poll demographics do exist
• The trouble is they look like this…
Demographics
• Without context demographics are worse
than useless, they are confusing

• There is no holy grail demographic that will

point your way to victory.

• Unless you have a statistician on staff…

The MLS

Suburbs

Regional Centres
Neighbourhood profiles
What should I look for?
• Middle Class – with kids, close to schools

• Older Neighbourhoods with lot of Seniors

• The “Respectable” Lower Middle Class

• First time homeowners

The Politics of Division

Identifying a winning coalition

Four key groups
Mainstream Families Retired Women

Younger Men Empty Nesters

Targets
• These are the people you need

• These are the people you must communicate

with
– At the doors
– On the phones
– By mail
– With literature
Suburbs and Seniors
The Battleground

Need to gain from Libs

And keep turnout up
Lower Middle Class
and Worse
“The Secret Weapon”

Well Off Elites Find the Conservatives

“No fly zone” and drive up turnout
(low Green appeal)

Hold our own

Keep turnout low
Write out your coalition
• In the previous example the coalition was:
– Suburban home owners, especially parents
– Seniors
– Lower middle class, get them out to vote

• Keep it broad, otherwise it never adds up

More Vote Goals
• Now you know your general plan AND how
many votes you need to win.
• Need poll by poll vote goals
• Step 1: Neighbourhoods
• Step 2: Neighbourhood vote goals
• Step 3: Divide by polls
STEP 1
STEP 2
903 votes

975 votes
674 votes 1005 votes
776 votes
1242 votes
714 votes
1284 votes
1101 votes
774 votes
1335 votes
923 votes 266 votes

476 votes 492 votes

790 votes
265 votes
106 votes 842 votes
723 votes
174 votes
Lessons and Approaches
• Higher Turnout works for Conservatives
• Go where the votes are
• Talk to those you need, ignore everyone else

• Two approaches to getting more votes

– Look at polls and then where target groups live
– Look at likely polls and who lives there
Poll by Poll
• Assign votes within each neighbourhood
based on the proportion of Conservative
votes there last time
• Take into account local factors
• Some polls may have a smaller goal than
you got last time
Poll by Poll
From vote goals to targets
• So now you know what you need in every
poll.

• So what?
– Where do you doorknock?
– Where do you phone?
– Where do you send literature?
Your voter ID

Look at current
supporters
Gap targeting
Poll Vote Goal Current Support Gap
1 80 51 29
2 96 84 12
3 124 64 60
4 148 122 26
5 91 86 5
6 72 28 44
7 48 19 31
8 88 28 60
9 107 80 27
Gap targeting
Poll Vote Goal Current Support Gap
1 80 51 29
2 96 84 12
3 124 64 60
4 148 122 26
5 91 86 5
6 72 28 44
7 48 19 31
8 88 28 60
9 107 80 27
Gap targeting
Poll Vote Goal Current Support Gap
1 80 51 29
2 96 84 12
3 124 64 60
4 148 122 26
5 91 86 5
6 72 28 44
7 48 19 31
8 88 28 60
9 107 80 27
Gap targeting
Poll Vote Goal Current Support Gap
1 80 51 29
2 96 84 12
3 124 64 60
4 148 122 26
5 91 86 5
6 72 28 44
7 48 19 31
8 88 28 60
9 107 80 27
Gap targeting
Poll Vote Goal Current Support Gap
1 80 51 29
2 96 84 12
3 124 64 60
4 148 122 26
5 91 86 5
6 72 28 44
7 48 19 31
8 88 28 60
9 107 80 27
Targets
• Sort your polls by the gap
• The polls with the biggest gap are where you
– Phone
– Doorknock
– Use the candidate
– Send some literature
• Re-order your targets every three or four
days
Persuasion
• Q. How do you find the undecideds?

• A. From your voter ID

• Do special canvass with the candidate in

those polls with high vote goals of just the
undecideds
Literature and Ads
• Identify issues for the top target groups

• Send it to where they live

• To better target hit those polls where you

need it most – big gaps and big vote goals

• Do NOT buy newspaper ads

Ignoring People
• Because you know who you need, you know
who to ignore
• This means that be strategically divisive or
“controversial” is a good plan
• Do it carefully, but if you know your coalition
it can be very effective
“Stay on Target” and the real
enemy
Getting the votes you need to win
The story so far
• You know the number of votes to win

• You know the types of people you care about

• You know where to canvass, phone and send

literature

• Now all you have to do, is actually do it!

The real enemy
A word on Candidates
• You have a good plan, stick to it!

• Candidates like people, you don’t have to

• Candidates will try and get you to change
your plan, because someone “told” them
• They are susceptible to the slightest criticism
Stay on Target
• That doesn’t mean be rigid

• You have to be flexible, your vote goals will change

• Listen to what is happening and watch the national

numbers and what HQ is saying

• But don’t change at a whim

Conclusion
• Figure out how many votes you need to win

• Research your riding – who lives there?

• Identify which groups you need and where they live

• Communicate with them

• Stay on target
Questions
If you have further questions, comments or
abuse, send me an email:

hamishmarshall@conservative.ca