DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

MODEL

SHAMSU-DEEN ZIBLIM
1ST,JUNE,2020
VENUE: VIA ZOOM
 What is the Demographic
Transition Model (DTM)?
• The demographic transition model explains the
transformation of countries from having high birth and
death rates to low birth and death rates.

• In developed countries this transition began in the 18th

century and continues today.

• Less developed countries began the transition later and

many are still in earlier stages of the model.
 
                                                               
 Stage One
Birth Rate and Death rate are both high. Population growth is slow and fluctuating .

Birth Rate is high because Death Rate is high

of: because of:
• Lack of family planning • High levels of disease
• High Infant Mortality Rate: putting • Famine
babies in the 'bank' • Lack of clean water and sanitation
• Need for workers in agriculture • Lack of health care
• Religious beliefs • War
• Children as economic assets • Competition for food from
predators such as rats
• Lack of education
Typical of Britain in the 18th
century and the Least
Economically Developed
Countries (LEDC's) today.
 Model 1: The DTM
(Demographic Transition Model)

Stage A / 1
Both high birth rates and
death rates fluctuate in
the first stage of the
population model giving a
small population growth
(shown by the small total
population graph).
 Stage Two
Birth Rate remains high. Death Rate is falling. Population begins to rise steadily.

Death Rate is falling as a result of:

• Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine)
• Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)
• Improved sanitation
• Improved food production and storage
• Improved transport for food
• Decreased Infant Mortality Rates

Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh;

Nigeria
 Model 1: The DTM
(Demographic Transition Model)

Stage B / 2
Birth rates remain high,
but death rates fall
rapidly causing a high
population growth (as
shown by the total
population graph).
 Stage Three
Birth Rate starts to fall. Death Rate continues to fall. Population rising.

Reasons behind birth and death rate falling:

• Family planning available
• Lower Infant Mortality Rate
• Increased mechanization reduces need for workers
• Increased standard of living
• Changing status of women

Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century;

China; Brazil
 Stage 3
(Demographic Transition Model)

Stage C / 3
Birth rates now fall
rapidly while death rates
continue to fall. The total
population begins to peak
and the population
increase slows to a
constant.
Stage Four
• Birth Rate is low.
• Death Rate is low.
• Population steady. Typical of USA; Sweden;
Norway, Japan; Britain,
 Model 1: The DTM
(Demographic Transition Model)

Stage D / 4
Both birth rates and
death rates remain low,
fluctuating with 'baby
booms' and epidemics of
illnesses and disease.
This results in a steady
population.
 Typical of Germany
Stage Five • Birth Rate slight
fall.
Reasons for changes in birth rate:
• Death Rate stable.
• Family planning
• Natural increase:
• Better health gentle decrease
• Later marriages
• Improved status of women

Reasons for changes

in death rate:
• Good health care
• Reliable food supply
• People are generally
living longer
(Demographic Transition Model)

Stage E / 5?
A stage 5 was not
originally thought of as
part of the DTM, but
some western countries
are now reaching the
stage where total
population is declining
where birth rates have
dropped below death
rates.
 Model 2: The PPM
(Population Pyramid Model)
The PPM - 'Population
Pyramid Model' shows
how dynamic (subject
to change) population
is. The model is
structured to show
'snapshots' of a
population at four
points during its
development, which
are shown as Stages 1
- 4 (A - D). A country
will progress through
the stages.
 Limitations and Challenges
What limitations do you think there could be with
the model?
• It does not include the influences of migration

• It assumes that all countries will go through the same pattern

• There is no time scale

• Reasons for birth rates and death rates are very different in
different countries
POPULATION PYRAMID
• Population pyramid are graphical
presentation that illustrate or shows the age
and gender of the people in a specific country
or any geographical area.
• It helps government to intensify education on
birth control
• It also enables health policy planners to put
in measures to reduce mortality rate in the
country
School of Medicine and Health Sciences,
16
University for Development Studies, Tamale.
Stage 2 Ghana / Kenya
 QUESTIONS&
CONTRIBUTIONS?